Royce Sheibal
EF3
Will it be another fall event? Or is the NAM just pulling our leg yet again? The GFS is saying a big fat no to tomorrow, that being said, I haven't had a ton of faith in the GFS so far this year, at least regarding Nebraska events. The NAM has been consistent in creating 2-3k cape/40+kts E-SHR/ and 0-3k SRH of 200-400 somewhere in the 3pm to 6pm time frame during the last couple models runs. The NAM's simulated precip also shows possible cell formation as early as noon, and seems to keep discrete cells forming until almost dark. So far this year the NAM has generally been under-forecasting cells on the sim precip (or not at all), so this is weird.
I'm gonna run with it and say yes. If the NAM is correct there will be a very strong area of DPVA pushing into E NEB during peak heating, and strong pushes of DPVA are infamous for tornado creation in classical events. Earlier today there was a touchdown out in rural mountainous SW CO. Yeah, that's how strong this DPVA is going to be with this system. Last year's EF4's in Wayne, NE occurred in a similar setup, mind you there was a much sharper front, but we've got better heating and moisture this time around.
Target: Columbus, NE 3pm. I'd like to see more from the high res tomorrow morning, but until then I'd rather err on the side of too far west than east here. Cells will likely be tornadic for short periods as they approach and interact with the warm front on a line from Columbus heading E toward Omaha. Anyone out there might end up cell skipping as the prime areas of shear push ENE with the front. The hodo's make me think cell motion will be more NNE, but soundings predict ENE, so sure.
Sadly I won't be out there, stupid college. We may get round 2 Wednesday, perhaps a better chance down in KS? Good Luck.
I'm gonna run with it and say yes. If the NAM is correct there will be a very strong area of DPVA pushing into E NEB during peak heating, and strong pushes of DPVA are infamous for tornado creation in classical events. Earlier today there was a touchdown out in rural mountainous SW CO. Yeah, that's how strong this DPVA is going to be with this system. Last year's EF4's in Wayne, NE occurred in a similar setup, mind you there was a much sharper front, but we've got better heating and moisture this time around.
Target: Columbus, NE 3pm. I'd like to see more from the high res tomorrow morning, but until then I'd rather err on the side of too far west than east here. Cells will likely be tornadic for short periods as they approach and interact with the warm front on a line from Columbus heading E toward Omaha. Anyone out there might end up cell skipping as the prime areas of shear push ENE with the front. The hodo's make me think cell motion will be more NNE, but soundings predict ENE, so sure.
Sadly I won't be out there, stupid college. We may get round 2 Wednesday, perhaps a better chance down in KS? Good Luck.
