• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2014-09-27 FCST: AZ

Jeremy Perez

Supporter
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
Messages
342
Location
Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
A trough moving eastward from central California will be closing off and making a nest over Nevada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface low wobbles around Nevada over course of the day with a cold front moving slowly eastward from the Colorado River. Mid level flow of 50 - 60 kts per today's 12Z NAM will reach across the Colorado River Valley by sunrise, and place some energy over central Arizona by evening. At the surface, NAM and GFS agree on dew points in the low 60s east of the Colorado River up to the Arizona Strip and southwest Utah with CAPE values from 1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear over 30 kts will overspread from western into central Arizona over the course of the day with a ribbon of 40-60 kts hanging tight to the western border. NAM forecasts surface winds backing between 12-15Z leading to a peak of 0-1km helicity values ahead of the cold front from 100-150 m2/s2 during early to mid morning. Forecast convection along the front and surface low grows overnight and expands along the front by morning, then migrates eastward over the rest of the state with enough shear moving in to support strong storms further eastward over the course of the day. The parameters look sufficient for severe storms, and to have some supercells in the mix.

Although strongest dynamics don't coincide with afternoon heating, it's the southwest, and seems like a good opportunity anyway. I'm currently looking at a target area near Kingman, AZ by daybreak. Arizona road options are always a gamble of commitments with few options to re-target without extra miles in the wrong direction, so hoping I get it right & don't wind up with a bunch of stratocumulus and grungy convection as my reward.

I focused primarily on northwestern Arizona, but opportunities in the rest of the state as well as bordering areas of California, Nevada and Utah could have some options as well if anyone else wants to plug those in.
 
Looks like a play tomorrow in the Phoenix area. Better road network and a compromise of models concerning shear and instability. Pretty much a typical "end of the monsoon" bonus chase with no real target until the storms fire and their behavior can be monitored.

W.
 
Back
Top