Jeremy Perez
Supporter
A trough moving eastward from central California will be closing off and making a nest over Nevada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface low wobbles around Nevada over course of the day with a cold front moving slowly eastward from the Colorado River. Mid level flow of 50 - 60 kts per today's 12Z NAM will reach across the Colorado River Valley by sunrise, and place some energy over central Arizona by evening. At the surface, NAM and GFS agree on dew points in the low 60s east of the Colorado River up to the Arizona Strip and southwest Utah with CAPE values from 1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear over 30 kts will overspread from western into central Arizona over the course of the day with a ribbon of 40-60 kts hanging tight to the western border. NAM forecasts surface winds backing between 12-15Z leading to a peak of 0-1km helicity values ahead of the cold front from 100-150 m2/s2 during early to mid morning. Forecast convection along the front and surface low grows overnight and expands along the front by morning, then migrates eastward over the rest of the state with enough shear moving in to support strong storms further eastward over the course of the day. The parameters look sufficient for severe storms, and to have some supercells in the mix.
Although strongest dynamics don't coincide with afternoon heating, it's the southwest, and seems like a good opportunity anyway. I'm currently looking at a target area near Kingman, AZ by daybreak. Arizona road options are always a gamble of commitments with few options to re-target without extra miles in the wrong direction, so hoping I get it right & don't wind up with a bunch of stratocumulus and grungy convection as my reward.
I focused primarily on northwestern Arizona, but opportunities in the rest of the state as well as bordering areas of California, Nevada and Utah could have some options as well if anyone else wants to plug those in.
Although strongest dynamics don't coincide with afternoon heating, it's the southwest, and seems like a good opportunity anyway. I'm currently looking at a target area near Kingman, AZ by daybreak. Arizona road options are always a gamble of commitments with few options to re-target without extra miles in the wrong direction, so hoping I get it right & don't wind up with a bunch of stratocumulus and grungy convection as my reward.
I focused primarily on northwestern Arizona, but opportunities in the rest of the state as well as bordering areas of California, Nevada and Utah could have some options as well if anyone else wants to plug those in.
