Yeah, my concern with the Sioux City area, apart from the drive, is the behavior of the boundary across Nebraska. Especially in NE Nebraska, the 12Z NAM wants to push the boundary southeastward, which makes me concerned about cells being able to stay ahead of the boundary. In an attempt to show this, I've marked the boundary at 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC on the attached 500 mb map.
In the vicinity of SUX, the motion of the boundary is southeast at about 11 m/s (=21 kts). We can overlay vector that on the hodograph and draw a line through the tip and perpendicular to it. I've done this in the attached hodograph. (EDIT: I messed up my units. >.< The hodograph is in kts, and the vector is plotted as if it were m/s. It should be at about the 20-kt ring, not the 10-kt ring, same orientation.)
All motions below that line will remain ahead of the boundary, and all motions above that line will fall behind the boundary. The right mover storm motion vector is way behind that line, so anything that develops will get overtaken by the boundary before it gets a chance to do any tornado-making, unless it's way south of the cold front. The 12Z NAM keeps enough inhibition across most of the warm sector that getting a storm without some sort of boundary is unlikely. So you'll have to get something on a boundary ahead of the cold front. Perhaps an outflow boundary from the morning convection, if it occurs.
Additionally, the upper-level winds nearly parallel the orientation of the boundary (even more so than the 500 mb winds), which always screams "linear" to me.
This is all based on the 12Z NAM, which admittedly has been pretty pessimistic about this entire setup. It's also possible that the NAM's front is being convectively-reinforced, so if there's less convection on the cold front than the NAM thinks, the issues with the boundary might be lessened. The 12Z GFS does keep the boundary farther northwest, but I've seen in the past that the GFS doesn't push boundaries through quickly enough.
So if I were going (I was thinking about it, but barring a sudden change in progs, I'll probably sit it out), I would do one of two things. 1) Play the outflow boundary from any morning convection and hope it's enough to get a decent storm up before the front and MCS get there. 2) Play the cold front farther southwest between Hastings, NE and Colby, KS. This is a long shot (and a long drive for me), but the front moves slower because of its proximity to the secondary low, so there's more of a chance to get a discrete cell. However, the NAM has a much weaker wind field in that area, and you're getting dangerously close to the inverted-V profiles in western KS.
