2014-06-16 FCST: KS/NE/SD/MN/IA

[Royce Sheibal]

No one had posted a thread yet...so here's the boy crying wolf. SPC is talking about another potential moderate day in Nebraska. May get overnight convection complicating things, again. Warm front riding north with questionable location, again. Rap shows 5k cape, very high EHI/STP, good SRH, 70+ dewpoints, -14 LI?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Norfolk to Sioux City is going to be very active. In fact I'll predict Nebraska get its 1st violent tor of the season tomorrow. Who'll take the bet?

Update 8AM and t-storm watch up in nebraska, elevated storms WILL become surface based soon. I just drove into work in Omaha and we've got fog so dense it looks like scuds on the ground. Upgrade to moderate from SPC on the way, this is going to be a crazy day.

 

[Will Campbell]

I won't take that bet, but I will highlight the volatility of the models for their 00z run. What was looking like a dead ringer for northeast NE, SE SD earlier, now appears models are hinting that overnight/early convection will suppress the warmfront a bit further south. The 00z NAM and 4K NAM now point to the best ingredients being along I80 between GRI and Lincoln, with a secondary target in East-central SD along the 29 corridor.

On the plus side, it appears there will be a bit better flow aloft which may aide in venting updrafts so we don't get insta-HP storms, but with a warmfront setup there's always the risk of things getting messy. The surface winds per the 00zNAM back nicely around Mitchell, SD, and down in NE along the I80 corridor, and 0-1km helicities are in excess of 200-400 m2/s2. It will be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow. Currently I'm liking the York - Grand Island area based purely on the 00Z NAM for the helicity max and how close it is to me, but I will be keeping a close eye tomorrow for the northern target. Thankfully I'm geographically dead in the middle of my two potential targets so I can wait to decide! Goodluck to all going out, be safe.

 

[John Wetter]

For those chasing this week it looks like the HopWRF Ensemble model should be a great tool. It is a 4-member ensemble hi resolution model for the area running every 3 hours. Take a look: http://www.hopwrf.info

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Cell In Omaha has produced 3 inch hail north of Lincoln and has a strong hook echo with rotation...but no tor warning...in a Metro area? I know the guys at Valley don't like to jump the gun...but its a very juicy storm...Hope someone is watching it. I'm stuck downtown.

 

[Todd Rector]

For those chasing this week it looks like the HopWRF Ensemble model should be a great tool. It is a 4-member ensemble hi resolution model for the area running every 3 hours. Take a look: http://www.hopwrf.info

The HopWRF appears to have completely missed the morning convection.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

PDS In Northern Nebraska...Looks like my long shot may come to be! Is anyone out chasing this stuff right now? Why did I have to work today!

 

[Jeremy Perez]

The occluded, tornadic meso NW of Stanton appears to be handing off to the southeast (with a load of Spotter Network icons underneath). Satellite suggest that storm is staying isolated for the time being.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Two simultaneous large tornadoes from a single supercell outside Pilner, according to TWC. I have to say I've never seen anything remotely like it. Anybody manage to see this with their own eyes?

 

[Jeremy Perez]

As it approaches Thurston, this cell really seems to be a machine for maintaining multiple simultaneous tornadic mesocyclones. From what I'm seeing on radar it could also be churning out some noteworthy anticyclonic circulations.

(Note: time listed is AZ time. This would be 2137Z)

 

[Royce Sheibal]

There are some days where I'm glad I make great predictions, and some days that I'm not. Today I'm not. More storms developing near Norfolk, set to hit areas hit by the monsters earlier. Storms may still fire in extremely high SRH areas to the SE near Omaha, but the cap is holding tight for now.