2014-06-06 FCST: KS/OK

[Taylor Wright]

The GFS and NAM seem to be in agreement of a shortwave impacting south-central KS and north-central OK on Friday. Winds are backed almost 90 degrees along the warm front, and dews shouldn't have trouble approaching or exceeding 70 F. 500 mb shear up to 60 kts in these areas, as well.

Thanks to ongoing convection, temp/dew depressions should be less than 10 degrees and LCLs should be plenty low. Despite that convection, it looks as if the NAM redevelops storms somewhere southwest of the ongoing MCS, and CAPE values still manage to reach 3000 J/kg. Hodographs are impressive in a small area in southern KS:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=37.3001&sounding.lon=-98.5917&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=06&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=18&fhour=75&parameter=EHI&level=1000&unit=M&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

Problems with this one are obviously the convection going on all day and the cap. Will supercells be able to develop along the warm front behind the MCS and/or on the southern end of it? I may be getting into too much detail three days out, but I'm curious what others think about this setup, particularly how the easterly surface winds and previous convection could affect storm redevelopment.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Amazed the Northern Texas Panhandle (and nearby areas) are not in a Moderate Risk today. Parameters are quite impressive this afternoon, with SPC RAP late afternoon forecast CAPE values around 4k, acceptable LCL's, and helicity values in the region of 200-400 in addition to front interactions.

Initial target is Boise City.

W.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

The HRRR had been consistently popping storms around 4-5 pm west of Amarillo and the go east all the way through the night. The big thing is this warm front sagging through the panhandle. If any storm can stay discrete, it'll probably end up being a monster supercell.

 

[Manuel Salgado]

I'm in Dalhart right now just watching the visible. I expect the boundary left over form last night's storms to be where I end up in a couple of hours.