2014-06-01 MISC: NE/KS/OK/CO/SD/IA/MN

[JamesCaruso]

So today went to hell in a hand-basket... Things seemed pretty promising at one point, any meteorological insights on what went wrong?

Anybody see anything on the tor-warned portion of the line/cluster near Concordia? If so please post a report.

Thanks,
Jim

 

[Jacob Ferden]

So today went to hell in a hand-basket... Things seemed pretty promising at one point, any meteorological insights on what went wrong?

Anybody see anything on the tor-warned portion of the line/cluster near Concordia? If so please post a report.

Thanks,
Jim

Just following surface data throughout the day, I would suggest perhaps a bit too much mixing, as dews in the interest area never got out of the low 60s, at best. Also, some short range modeling this morning did suggest a slight veering of winds at 850 mb, especially south of I-70...I wouldn't be surprised if that had caused problems.

NOTE: this may be better suited for a DISC thread than the FCST thread.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Looks like low-level flow never really backed much up against the dryline in w KS, which allowed some detrimental mixing to take place as well as limit directional shear in the low levels. There may be more to it than that, but that was the main factor that made me decide to stay home for this one.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like low-level flow never really backed much up against the dryline in w KS, which allowed some detrimental mixing to take place as well as limit directional shear in the low levels. There may be more to it than that, but that was the main factor that made me decide to stay home for this one.

Yes, the 12Z models did not show much convergence / backed winds along the dryline, and the dryline itself was not all that sharp (dew point gradient not that steep). We initially targeted Norton to Wakeeny where models did show some backed surface winds near the cold front / dryline intersection, but the morning convection changed those plans in a hurry.

Jim