I am increasingly optimistic about tomorrow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The 12Z 4km NAM run today looked amazing with lots of discrete supercells popping ahead of the dryline and along and south of the warm front between 20Z-0Z. The warm front is forecasted to be draped right across east central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon which could be a dangerous set up for Omaha. 500's will be screaming out of the south, but there is still forecasted to be a lot of low level shear with backed southeasterly winds. The negatives are the storm motions which should be 35-40+ knots and moving due north so they will cross the warm front pretty quickly. Hopefully early morning crapvection clears out and the 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE can be realized in the afternoon.
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2014-04-27 FCST: KS OK TX NE MO AR
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
chrisbray
EF4
What are other people's thoughts about Southwestern Illinois/eastern Missouri? 4k Nam is showing a line of cells firing up in the afternoon across the bottom half of Illinois, looks like they could be a result of the warm front? Parameter around the time show very good backed surface winds and ~2000 cape. My concern is the upper level winds will not have really arrived at that point. Trying to determine if/where to chase tomorrow with my friend in that area. Currently thinking south-central Ill, or Eastern Missouri if it looks the main action will pass through there before dusk.
Matt Hunt
EF3
I had looked at that area a couple days ago as a possible chase closer to home, but as you said the 500mb speed max will not reach that area. Another concern of mine is that storm motions are perpendicular to the warm front, instead of paralleling it. So at some point they'll likely cross the front and become elevated. If storms were able to root in the boundary, they could certainly tornado. I wouldn't rule it out. I've opted for western MO instead. It likely won't be as good as anything down in Arkansas, but the terrain is better. There is certainly the upper level forcing in this area, the only downside is the upper level winds begin to back. The 18z 4km NAM seems to break storms out a little further west across the KS border, which would keep them in better terrain longer.
Mike DeLange
EF0
Had the same analysis and I am also concerned about AM activity affecting afternoon convection - not sure how this one will play out in the end
Mike Peregrine
EF5
Tomorrow is a classic tornado setup with a negatively tilted trough. Early and ongoing convection won't be a factor. There will be several rounds. Reminds me of 05/04/03. I expect the MDT to extend up to IA/NE by morning. I just checked forecast storm speeds and they are doable. Storm direction looks almost straight north, though, which would be weird for chasing. Stronger rotating storms will have to turn right against the steering winds.
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Mike DeLange
EF0
Reminds me somewhat of Wayne, NE event last October - storms spinning off a warm front to the North. They were fast movers though, tomorrow storms will be at a slower pace.
Mike Marz
EF3
Welcome to the jungle... Good luck to AR chasers tomorrow. I am not nearly that experienced yet. Wish that same high risk that will likely be issued soon was in KS... For anyone not risking that terrain though, it looks like this system will put on quite a show in southern IA as well. Good luck. Comeback whole. : ) chase on
Mike Marz
EF3
PS. I also agree, very similar to Oct 4 last year, at least if your near the surface low tomorrow
Taylor Wright
EF2
With the RAP coming into play, my target area continues to be somewhere in northern or northwest Missouri. I haven't decided exactly where I'll target, but I'm in Lawrence, so I'll see what's going on around noon tomorrow and decide then. The RAP is optimistic about moisture and has some nice hodographs with increasingly less veered upper wind profiles in northern and central Missouri.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=530&sounding.y=325&prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=04&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=03&fhour=18¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y
Veered upper winds seem to be more of an issue in Nebraska. Wouldn't be surprised if things are going on early tomorrow with there being no CAP. Only concern is instability, as models agree on instability being an issue up here, maybe because of early crap going on. Better instability appears to be early in the day, with some areas getting more than 2000 J/kg of CAPE potentially.
Hopefully everyone thinks twice about chasing down in the jungle tomorrow. It's not a Saturday, but it's still the weekend, so obviously things are going to get crazy down there. Be safe.
-Taylor Wright
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=530&sounding.y=325&prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=04&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=03&fhour=18¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y
Veered upper winds seem to be more of an issue in Nebraska. Wouldn't be surprised if things are going on early tomorrow with there being no CAP. Only concern is instability, as models agree on instability being an issue up here, maybe because of early crap going on. Better instability appears to be early in the day, with some areas getting more than 2000 J/kg of CAPE potentially.
Hopefully everyone thinks twice about chasing down in the jungle tomorrow. It's not a Saturday, but it's still the weekend, so obviously things are going to get crazy down there. Be safe.
-Taylor Wright
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chrisbray
EF4
I'm calling off my Illinois chase. To far to drive from Ill/In border (hour south of chicago) all the way to either southern illinois or the STL metro area just to get a MCS. I'm questioning how far north/when the warm from will advance across Illinois and even then, I see several problems with warm front storms. Moving North (into cooler air), weakness in wind profiles after the lowest layers, and not even sure signs of this initiating. Looks like the real action will remain in Ark/Mo. Good luck to all those chasing, i look forward to your reports.
