James Gustina
Supporter
Definitely reaching with this one but a very marginal looking day has popped up on the 12Z GFS/00Z Euro as of yesterday and looks just weird enough to work. H7 trough located over southern Colorado with modest height falls and cooler H7 temps around 2.5C by 00Z. GFS paints pretty strong H85 jet due out of the south with decent moisture transport over the course of the day. Moisture return at the sfc looks modest, with maybe mid-50F dews at best across the eastern TX Panhandle/OK Panhandle along the dryline. The biggest issue is lack of upper-level support, with the area wedged between two very low-amplitude H5 impulses. Regardless of the modest BL moisture present, the GFS has been putting roughly 1000-1250 j/kg of SBCAPE just off the Caprock and up into No Man's Land. Turning in the lowest level looks good even with as low as the winds are throughout the lowest 250 mb. The overall shear profile does not look overly amazing but a mesoscale accident would not seem out of the question if this keeps up. Just something to keep an eye on.
