Bob Hartig
EF5
Time to initiate a discussion for Thursday's potential weather event. I've cheated and consulted the SPC day 3 graphic's core states, but others may need to be added. My personal area of interest, based on regional bias, is Missouri and Illinois, which are within easy reach of where I live in Michigan.
Until recently, the models had been quite out of sync with each other, with the Euro in particular moving the surface low all over the map. But these past few runs have seemed to settle in, and the NAM--which initially wanted to race the system eastward--now has slowed down in tandem with the Euro and GFS. It's still the most optimistic about how far north the warm front and low-to-mid-60s dewpoints will make it, but I like that, and I hope it's on the money. Whichever solution verifies, all three models roughly agree that Missouri is poised to get slammed, and I'm presently casting my eyes on an area roughly around Columbia as a good initial target. Here's this evening's 00Z NAM skew-T for Columbia on Thursday at 23Z. Not bad. The SBCAPE looks juicy, and the hodo, while not the curviest in creation, certainly shows enough helicity to get the job done.
Until recently, the models had been quite out of sync with each other, with the Euro in particular moving the surface low all over the map. But these past few runs have seemed to settle in, and the NAM--which initially wanted to race the system eastward--now has slowed down in tandem with the Euro and GFS. It's still the most optimistic about how far north the warm front and low-to-mid-60s dewpoints will make it, but I like that, and I hope it's on the money. Whichever solution verifies, all three models roughly agree that Missouri is poised to get slammed, and I'm presently casting my eyes on an area roughly around Columbia as a good initial target. Here's this evening's 00Z NAM skew-T for Columbia on Thursday at 23Z. Not bad. The SBCAPE looks juicy, and the hodo, while not the curviest in creation, certainly shows enough helicity to get the job done.
![10152636_10152320598029725_598634674_n.jpg](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Ffbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net%2Fhphotos-ak-frc3%2Ft1.0-9%2F10152636_10152320598029725_598634674_n.jpg&hash=403acf43096ceb1370931382aaf720bd)
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