Mike Johnston
EF5
Wednesday may end up being a "day before the day of" event, but does suggest some promise in it's own right and is now within the purview of the NAM, so let's kick off a forecast discussion, shall we?
In the big picture, first thing I noticed is it looks like a pretty good fetch of moisture up through the south/central plains. There's a sprawling high pressure centered just off the southeast Atlantic coast, so this air looks to be a lot more juicy than last week's tepid setup. NAM is currently suggesting around 65 tds advecting up through Oklahoma into Kansas. For once so far this season, the heat (theta-e) looks decent too. In the upper levels, looks like a 300mb jet streak of > 100 kts. rounding the base of a western trough and ejecting across the 4 corners. 500mb flow out of the WSW and 850mb flow out of the SSW indicates a decent crossover with height.
At the lower levels, perhaps the most prominent feature is a very sharp classical dry line extending down from a low pressure centered over SW Kansas. Instability looks nice, with ~ 2,500 j/kg indicated just out ahead of the dry line. Also, the temperature gradients and wind barbs suggest a warm front extending eastward from the surface low.
The cap may or may not be an issue. 700mb temps look to be around 5 degrees centigrade.
It's probably too soon for targeting, as that will depend on the latitude of where that lee low sets up. But, for now, south central Kansas and north central Oklahoma are worth keeping an eye on.
In the big picture, first thing I noticed is it looks like a pretty good fetch of moisture up through the south/central plains. There's a sprawling high pressure centered just off the southeast Atlantic coast, so this air looks to be a lot more juicy than last week's tepid setup. NAM is currently suggesting around 65 tds advecting up through Oklahoma into Kansas. For once so far this season, the heat (theta-e) looks decent too. In the upper levels, looks like a 300mb jet streak of > 100 kts. rounding the base of a western trough and ejecting across the 4 corners. 500mb flow out of the WSW and 850mb flow out of the SSW indicates a decent crossover with height.
At the lower levels, perhaps the most prominent feature is a very sharp classical dry line extending down from a low pressure centered over SW Kansas. Instability looks nice, with ~ 2,500 j/kg indicated just out ahead of the dry line. Also, the temperature gradients and wind barbs suggest a warm front extending eastward from the surface low.
The cap may or may not be an issue. 700mb temps look to be around 5 degrees centigrade.
It's probably too soon for targeting, as that will depend on the latitude of where that lee low sets up. But, for now, south central Kansas and north central Oklahoma are worth keeping an eye on.