2014-03-28 FCST: TX, LA, AR, MS

[Zack Cooper]

Eyeing tomorrow for the potential of a local chase. Definitely not the best setup. Lots of moisture available and multiple disturbances moving across the area though. Dewpoints from E TX into MS look to get into the middle 60's. Instability will be sufficient, with CAPE values in the 2500 j/kg range likely. Big problems with tomorrow include virtually nonexistent low level winds, veered surface flow, and possibly widespread convection. Still, it's close, and I'll probably head out somewhere in E TX or central LA tomorrow.

 

[samuel stone]

yeah there's definitely going to be alot of convection, strong upper level divergence atop a meager capping inversion in central to east texas. the wind profile from 700 mb down looks very poor to me mostly due to low velocities. i think it will be hard for any discrete storms to develop strong low level mesocyclones, I would definintely want to be somewhere NW of houston by about 150 miles around 18z if i were looking for supercells. there is a stronger 700 mb jet nosing in there finally by 21z and EHS's aren't to bad there either. other than that its gonna be a mess with no low to mid level shear, no cap, and relatively strong forcing

EDIT: this could be a moderate or even high risk if we had better low level flow.

 

[Jeff House]

High res guidance insists on right mover(s) tracking out of Central/North Texas toward points north of Houston. The motion of the storms should improve low level flow, relative to the storms. Also surface winds should be 10-15 mph in southeast Texas by afternoon; then, add storm motion. Mid levels are a bit of a challenge but upper levels have more than adequate directional and speed shear. My main point is to consider storm relative low level winds and shear.