2013-06-17 FCST: CO/KS

[Hannah.Taylor]

Looking at the 00Z runs of the GFS for the 17th (Mon), (18th (Tues) and 19th (Wed), look good as well) ERN CO/WRN KS looks very promising. CAPE @ 2000 j/kg, with 30-50 knot shear, 60* dewpoints and Lifted Index's of -9 have me a litty giddy to say the least. Should be more than ample enough instability, however the GFS shows a stout CAP in place at 96 hours, but it seems confined to a limited area, so if storms can initiate around that CAP'd area or breakt through the CAP, there should be some nice storms to latch on to. I'm thinking just south of Limon and perhaps a little more east will be a nice initiation point, and storms should develop.

I'm interested to see how the NAM relates and if it confirms or deviates from the GFS. But looks like it could be a nice 2 or 3 day event if variables hold up.

Please feel free to add to this or correct me, as I'm still learning how to put all the pieces of forecasting together and I may have missed something.

 

[Jeff House]

Those may be interesting days on the High Plains. The following general patterns are recognized on both the GFS and Euro. New West trough begins to chip away at an already weakened Plains ridge. Slightly stronger than normal, for mid-June, jet stream is forecast over CO/KS. Surface high press in the Mid South should promote slightly backed winds in the Plains. Stationary front over southern Plains forecast to retreat north starting midweek. That stationary front will be left over from the weekend system going into the Upper Midwest. If a dry line cannot establish well, one could play general upslope flow around the stationary front. A dry line intersection with that would be even more interesting. Too early to for me to forecast details or placement.