Tim Supinie
EF2
I've been thinking about the possibility of chasing on Wednesday, and I was kind of surprised no one had started a thread on this yet. Then I took a look at the latest (28/06Z, granted) GFS and NAM, and now I kind of see why. I'm always wary of veer-back-veer wind profiles with these über-negative-tilt troughs, and this one has some ugly ones. The NAM has some pretty disgusting tropopause-level winds (50 kts out of the SSW) all up and down the dryline by 00Z on the 30th. The GFS is better in that respect in southwest OK, but keeps a pretty big cap in place (probably because it's barely mixed the boundary layer any, which I don't buy).
Also, we have the usual good moisture (65 F+ surface dewpoints), good mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), gigantor CAPE (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg by 18Z), all that fun stuff. The 06Z NAM's mid-level lapse rates are less good by 30/00Z, but that's because it's already broken out convection in the general area by 21Z, and you see the effects of that. Its 18Z mid-level lapse rates are good.
So as of now, I'd be targeting southwest OK, which is fine with me because that makes it convenient to get back to Norman at the end of the evening.
Can I hope that the ugly wind profiles are a 06Z model run anomaly?
Also, we have the usual good moisture (65 F+ surface dewpoints), good mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), gigantor CAPE (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg by 18Z), all that fun stuff. The 06Z NAM's mid-level lapse rates are less good by 30/00Z, but that's because it's already broken out convection in the general area by 21Z, and you see the effects of that. Its 18Z mid-level lapse rates are good.
So as of now, I'd be targeting southwest OK, which is fine with me because that makes it convenient to get back to Norman at the end of the evening.
Can I hope that the ugly wind profiles are a 06Z model run anomaly?
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