2012-03-29 FCST: KS/MO/IA/NE

[Brendon Lindsey]

Northeastern KS may have some organized severe weather on Thursday. The Hodo for St. Joseph, MO is impressive on the most recent run (18z) but the general area has been pretty persistent for action in previous models. I don't like the southerly surface winds though. I think everything is there for some organized storms. Instability, moisture, upper level support. Id say the center of the Low and WF is going to be the forcing mechanism. I'd like some input about the southerly SFC winds and any other things people would like to point out. I'm willing to learn! Most definitely If I had the day off Id set up just NW. of KC. (haven't looked how bad the roads are there but in a perfectly roaded world that's where I would be.)

This may be time sensitive but look at this hodo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.7410&sounding.lon=-94.9219&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=03&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=18&fhour=54&parameter=DPTC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

If there is a tornado chance its looking likely it will be 6-9pm near the KS/MO/NE corner. The shear gets better later.

 

[Andy Jackson]

It definitely looks like the cap should begin to erode by peak heating time. NAM precip models show storms developing in NE ahead of the upper-level disturbance and propagating southward. There is definitely a chance for tornadoes given the impressive shear. For now it looks like a pretty good severe setup, with the usual suspects like moisture, cape and timing to resolve themselves as the day nears.

 

[Seth Edge]

Targeting somewhere around topeka as of now the setup looked a lot better yesterday-2 days ago. Looks like some late isolated afternoon tornados. low level shear needs to pick up and hopefully the early storms won't hurt the good storms later. Nice cape at 3000 but with each model it seems to go down. the EHI above 3 from 0-3 km and above 1 from 0-1 km. lifted index -8 range. Vorticity and vertical velocity are good. Soundings and crossovers look ok. may not go if the model runs keep going down. gas has got expensive. Prob going to be one of those days when you wait to look at the RUC in the morning to decide to go or not. Interested in what everybody else is doing tomorrow.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Persistent stratus in NW MO and SE NE are going to really hamper development this evening, as recent runs of the RUC are picking up on. It appears the stratus in northeast KS should clear out enough to break the cap and allow convective development by 22Z or so, however this location is a bit further away from the better wind fields and SRH. We'll see if anything can latch on to an outflow boundary and get started in NE KS. It's a little disappointing seeing the stratus stick around for as long as it likely will, as surface heating wasn't suppose to be a problem even as recent as 06Z runs. Prog'd peak surface temps are now running about 15 degrees cooler in NW MO and I can't imagine anything substantial will fire there.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Target is still holding. If the storms do go up this evening, I can see it getting some structure and may even tornado warned. The Hodo is for 8pm near St. Joseph, Mo. Impressive! Its the RUC though. I dont like the cirrus deck there is there atm. The hodo says it all in my opinion. The warm front beast Ill be able to watch it from my cumputer desk at work... I am almost sure the RUC is overdoing the surface winds a great bit. We will see.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=03&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=16&fhour=09&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.lat=39.7917&sounding.lon=-94.8120

 

[Jared Orr]

Loving the hodos and 40 kt winds at the warm front by the NE/KS line. Hoping that a nice cell pops just NE of Marysville. My target is between Marysville and St. Joe. This is looking way better than yesterday.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Agree still some potential for today. Pretty sharp warm front developing, reinforced with a differential heating boundary across NE KS. Short term models show instability could build up to 3,500 j/kg CAPE before the cap breaks. Upper level support is still so-so and the target area won't have much influence from the upper-level shortwave until around 3z. Even so, there looks to be some decent 0-3km helicity any developing storms could take advantage of a little further east along the warm front. The earlier SPC outlook mentioned the possibility of an outflow boundary from the earlier storms in NW MO...no indication of this on radar yet, but something to keep a lookout for. Presumably, any such outflow boundary would be moving WSW and an intersection with the warm front might be an area of interest.

Terrain/road network might be a bit of a challenge to chasers. Missouri river crossings basically at Leavenworth, Atchison and St. Joseph. Gets a little hilly along the bluffs of the Missouri river, too.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Boundary now indicated on radar by a N/S-oriented line running right across the Topeka radar. Also, a boundary and cu development clearly visible on satellite and Wichita radar extending from SW of Wichita to the NE through north central KS. SB CAPE indicated at 3,000 j/kg with CIN eroding.