2011 Prediction Game (Closest to the Pin)

Joined
Jun 1, 2008
Messages
633
Location
Middle Tennessee
In the 3 years I've been on Stormtrack every year we have had a little game where we pick three dates and geographical locations of tornado outbreaks in the upcoming storm season. I've decided to start the game this year but add something to it. Let's pick three days that we expect tornadoes and three geographical points where we think they will occur. You can use a city (the city center will be the default point) or a landmark that can be looked up via Google. Skip suggested we use lat/lon coordinates, so I'll add them also so that we can also pick points out in open fields. For clarification, the distance from the pin will be measured 'as the crow flies' and not driving distance.

Now here is the twist: It's one thing to get lucky and guess a date/location. It's happened a few times that I can remember. But let's see who can photograph or video a tornado closest to one of the dates/locations they chose. We will play this sort of like 'closest to the pin'. Whoever captures a tornado closest to one of the locations they choose on one of the dates they choose wins.

To make this easy, just make a 1-2-3 list in your post like the example below. I will make another post below that I will add people's picks to so that they can be easily scanned through without wading though pages of posts. Please use the format below so I can just copy and paste your list into the post.

1. 05/15 Jetmore, KS
2. 05/17 Texarkana, TX
3. 06/01 Mount Rushmore

Important: Remember your dates/locations and if you capture one on that date, post it in this thread. I will then make that date below your name bold and place the location and distance from your prediction to the right. Don't be afraid that it is too far away, if it is on one of your chosen dates then you are in the game. Who knows, the someone might be 500 miles from their predicted location but since they are 'closest to the pin' at the end of the game, they win.

I was thinking about having a closing date, but thinking about the season we had in the Northern Plains in 2010 I want to keep it open ended to give all regions an equal shot at this. Instead, I'm going to propose a cutoff date for predictions of midnight Monday, February 28. The last date someone chooses will be the date we declare the winner.

Good luck!
 
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Wes Carter
03/18 Madison, AL 998 miles*
04/07 Jackson, TN 2,188 miles*
05/17 Hays, KS

Seth Price
04/15 Jackson, TN
05/22 Olney, TX
06/03 Colby, KS

Jason Boggs
04/17 Wichita Falls, TX
05/05 Woodward, OK
05/21 Great Bend, KS

Danny Neal
05/06 ~ 4 miles SW of Moore, OK
05/29 ~ 8 miles W of Springfield, IL
06/17 ~ 10 miles S of Rochester, MN

Darin Scoggins
04/16 Silverton, TX
05/11 Buffalo, OK
05/22 Snyder, OK

Ben Holcomb
05/03 Moore, OK
05/13 Pratt, KS
05/31 Beatrice, NE

James M Seitz
04/27 20 west Enid OK
05/12 15 miles west Dodge City KS
05/30 Marshall MN

Josh VandenTop
05/10 Bluff City, KS
06/04 Kansas Speedway
06/17 Menno, SD

Nick Nolte
05/18 Stockton, KS
06/01 Ottumwa, IA
07/22 Jackson, MI

Scott Hammel
04/24 Pampa, TX
05/25 Kinsley, KS
06/10 Cheyenne Wells, CO

Brandon Lawson
04/12 Stuttgart, AR
05/04 Coffeyville, KS
05/20 Seiling, OK

James Gustina
05/05 Guymon, OK
05/20 Garden City, KS
06/15 Richmond, IN

Skip Talbot
05/28 Salina, KS
06/11 Jacksonville, IL
06/18 Kearney, NE

Ric Burney
04/28 Vernon,TX
05/11 Corn, OK
05/18 Clinton, OK

Melissa Jablonski
05/14 4 miles north east Hays Kansas
06/07 3.5 miles East Worthington Minn
06/21 Indiana state road 23 and U S 6 Walkerton In

Jacob Ferden
04/29 Woodward, OK
05/14 El Dorado, KS
06/06 Kearney, NE

Verne Carlson
04/23 Clarendon, TX
05/10 Sharon Springs, KS
05/22 Hill City, KS

Paul Sherman
04/20 Springfield, MO
05/22 O'Neil, NE
06/14 Winner, SD

Matt Tottle
04/29 Dighton KS
05/08 Beaver OK
05/16 Holly CO

Ein Greene
06/07 15 mi of Limon, CO
06/17 7 mi of Kiowa, CO
08/09 5 mi of Calhan, CO

Donovan Gruner
04/26 10 S of Pampa, TX
05/04 5 SW of Medicine Lodge, KS
06/06 3 S of Roanoke, IL

Jeff Gonzales
04/23 Alva, OK
05/16 Dighton, KS
06/17 Ord, NE

Taylor Campbell
03/26 2 SW of Douglasville, GA Currently Leading 122 miles*
04/27 3 SE of Wedowee, AL
05/02 6 W of Newnan, GA

Adam Reagan
02/21 Huntsville, AL
04/01 Nashville, TN
05/09 OKC

Isaac Pato
03/08 Hammon, OK 339 miles*
05/29 Beatrice, NE
06/09 Hanscom AFB, MA

Chance Coldiron
04/27 Medford, Ok
05/06 Moore, Ok
06/11 Salina, Ks

Sarah Kenyon
04/20 Minneola, KS
05/15 Sheridan Lake, CO
07/07 Springfield, CO

Tom Lynch
05/06 Pratt KS
05/18 Hill City KS
05/30 Beatrice NE

Robert Hurkes
05/21 Topeka, KS
05/29 Sioux City, IA
06/22 Worthington, MN

John J. Holt
04/28 Elk City, OK
05/17 Orlando, OK
05/25 Canadian, TX

Jeremy Wilson
04/22 Wichita Falls, TX
04/23 Gainesville, TX
05/28 Anthony, KS

Andrew Stoller
04/03 Floydada, TX 462 miles*
05/12 Matheson, CO
06/18 Mission, SD

Tony Laubach
04/20 Rolla, KS
05/29 Albert, KS
06/10 Dimock, SD

Andy Wycislo
05/21 Fulton, MO
06/05 Altamont, IL
07/08 Gilman, IA

Chip Redmond
05/11 Dumas, TX
05/28 Haswell, CO
06/20 Pipestone, MN

Sean Miller
05/18 Ness City, Kansas
06/05 Anita, Iowa
06/09 Faulkton, SD

Rocky Watson
04/20 Canadian, TX
05/12 Protection, KS
07/03 Beatrice, NB

Mike Boik
04/18 Marlow, OK
05/17 Dexter, KS
06/08 Viola, IL

Michael Towers
04/25 Wheeler, Tx
05/05 Anthony, Ks
06/04 Wilber, Ne

Jeremy Wilson
04/22 Wichita Falls, TX
04/23 Gainesville, TX
05/28 Anthony, KS

Joshua Nall
04/10 Forest City, AR
04/20 Childress, TX
05/15 Lawton, OK

Zach Chappell
05/22 Yankton, SD
06/20 Chamberlain, SD
07/25 Bismarck,ND

JE Rogers
03/10 Jackson, Miss 883 miles*
04/21 Pampa, Tx
05/11 Pratt, Ks

James Hammett
05/07 Peoria, IL
06/19 Mason City, IA
07/02 Albert Lea, MN

Chris Lott
04/10 Throckmorton, TX
05/02 Wichita Falls, TX
05/24 Cross Plains, TX

Justin Wiley
04/16 Enid, OK
05/01 Maize, KS
05/29 McCook, NE

Matthew A Smith
05/21 Roseville, IL
04/11 Waldo, AR
04/06 Bartlesville, OK

Jeff Duda
05/02 Ames, IA
06/10 Ames, IA
06/24 Ames, IA

A Haberlie
05/25 Waterloo, IA
06/01 Dubuque, IA
06/17 Madison, WI

Johnathan Behle
05/18 Beatrice, NE
05/03 Piedmont, OK
06/18 Pocahontas, IA

Shane Young
05/27 Concordia, KS
06/06 Roxboro, NC
06/08 Chalco, NE

Amy Tierney
05/06 Little Rock, AK
05/30 Rolla, MO
06/23 Evansville, WI

Rebekah LaBar
03/22 Clarendon, TX 712 miles*
04/10 Lamont, OK
05/05 Coldwater, KS

Brian Stertz
03/18 Conway AR 636 miles*
05/10 Springfield IL
05/27 Wellington KS

Doug Drace
03/30 Arnett, OK 1,356 miles*
04/21 Spearman, TX
05/04 Bucklin, KS

T Thomas
04/30 10 miles W of Laverne, OK
05/21 7 miles N of Walsh, CO
06/14 Princeton, KS

Kelly Sugden
05/07 Vici, OK
05/22 Ford, KS
06/04 Hoxie, KS

Michael Reidl
05/08 Russel KS
06/01 Kankakee Illinois
06/17 El Dorado KS

Mark Sefried
04/16 Edwardsville, IL
05/21 South Pekin, IL
06/18 Waterloo, IA

L.B. LaForce
05/25 Burlington, KS
06/2 Cement City, MI (ROFL)
07/7 Milbank, SD

Aaron Estman
04/23 Vernon, Tx
05/15 Kingfisher, Ok
05/28 Enid, Ok

Sanjeev Kirubakaran
02/21 Emporia, KS
04/13 Bartlesville, OK
05/02 Basehor, KS

Drew Gardonia
05/04 Kansas City, MO (downtown area)
03/09 Oklahoma City, OK 833 miles*
04/24 Murfreesboro, TN

Bart Comstock
05/18 Colby, KS
06/12 York, NE

*All mileage is preliminary. The preliminary mileage is calculated with Google directions just to give a rough idea of how close the person got. At the end of the contest, we will calculate the straight line distances for the closest few to determine who got the closest. Feel free to double check your result, I'm not infallible. Although I am trying to be as accurate as possible, the accuracy of this game depends on people double checking me.

Legend:
Game leader who documented a tornado on one of the dates.
Current closest guess who did not document a tornado. (You should have been chasing!)
Tornado(es) on this date
Date passed with no tornadoes
 
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Variation

Last year, I picked three places every day and then multiplied the rank (1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice) by the number of miles from my location to the nearest tornado, the goal being to make that number as low as possible. It was an entertaining exercise when I was amping up for chase season (after the semester ends, for me).

I didn't account for storms after dark or good structure vs. squall line tornadoes or anything of the sort. I committed maybe 30 min in the morning, maybe 5 minutes of which was checking SPC reports to check out the day before.
 
Since I'm going to be in Boston May 2-7, I am going to go with

May 3 - Moore, OK

Epic outbreak I'm sure, and I can watch it on a laptop in Boston. ha

The other 2
May 13 - Pratt, KS
May 31 - Beatrice, NE
 
1) May 18 Stockton, KS
2) June 1 Ottumwa, IA
3) July 22 Jackson, MI

I contemplated making a 12/31 prediction just to make everyone wait to declare a winner, but I will spare you ;)
 
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