2011-05-24 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Jason Persoff]

Currently in Watonga, and I have no desire to reposition yet. Biggest factors to me including extreme dry punch moving NE out of TX with demarkation dramatically delineated on current sfc obs. Basically Tds begin dropping rapidly W of I-35 currently with Alva showing 86/59 and Ft. Sill, OK showing 79/71. Strong sfc convergence along readily apparent with a thick line focus N/S along I-35 on SAT. But sfc obs show only minimal convergence along and W of that line. Much more potent sfc convergence currently residing in the TX PH will move east with dryline today. From chase perspective, I want to avoid the triple point today due to probability of rapid storm initiation along warm front. CIN demonstrated on current SAT over SW OK with subsidence currently will allow veritable baking of atmosphere. Favor the area N of Lawton to Watonga for initiation of conditional threat best for chasing purposes.

SPC and local NWSFOs are going to be wickedly busy today. Amazing wind fields aloft, TBQH.

I sit and watch obs for now. No repositioning yet. Should decide soon on repositioning need.

 

[Michael Riedl]

This day continues to look scary as well as continues to be a challenge to forecasters across the central plains.

Some observations, there seems to be a gravity wave and several boundaries in play across KS. Will need to watch how any storms can interact with those boundaries as the day progresses. Further south across OK this set up is still looking extremely nice for significant, long tracked tornadoes. However it seems that the dry like will set up in almost the perfect storms for storms to fire off the line and mature right as they encounter the I-35 Region. No doubt a decent sized city will come under the gun at some point today unfortunately. I think an area that is really starting to stick out to me is along the Red River in south central OK and Nrn TX, in fact NWS Fort Worth's FB said the High Will be expanded down that way. There seems to be less question marks regarding Shear Vectors/speed and instability down taht direction, the only thing of concern I suppose is maybe a little weaker and more undirectional LLJ down there but thats not too big of a deal.

Latest RUC continues to show alot more meridional flow across OK, even NC OK.

 

[Chip Redmond]

I think an area that is really starting to stick out to me is along the Red River in south central OK and Nrn TX, in fact NWS Fort Worth's FB said the High Will be expanded down that way. There seems to be less question marks regarding Shear Vectors/speed and instability down taht direction, the only thing of concern I suppose is maybe a little weaker and more undirectional LLJ down there but thats not too big of a deal.

Latest RUC continues to show alot more meridional flow across OK, even NC OK.

Exactly what has caught my attention today. Was thinking that tp/dp spread over this area would be less with dewpoints a tad higher but according to surface obs, that has not been the case just yet. The winds are much more westerly/veered behind the dryline further south away from the low pressure. This should enhance convergence along the dryline in that region also. The 500mb winds veer more over this area as well helping convection stay discrete.

An interesting conversation point that came to mind today is with earlier initiation, should it stay discrete, would it provide a greater tornado threat because of smaller dp/tp spreads earlier in the day before peak heating is reached? Yea instability will be held back so it could have both pro's and con's, but just something I never considered before till today.

Chip

 

[Brian McKibben]

I just did a forecast sounding for OKC at 0z today and it looks nasty.

CAPE is 4000+
Helicity is 500+

and the EHI is an astounding 14.1.

These numbers are unprecedented. I have let all of my coworkers know the seriousness of this situation. I hope everyone else will do the same.