Doug Drace
EF1
Still 5 days out, but its MAY in the Southern Plains, its time for Severe Weather! A potentially active pattern, possibly a 3 day event appears to be shaping up...particularly for OK/TX with KS also having to be included (just because its 5 days out and a lot can change, and KS is KS). To early to get into major details on this one, but the overall synoptic pattern is looking quite favorable for multiple rounds of Severe WX along and 50 mi east and WEST (HOPEFULLY) of the I-35 corridor, especially from C OK-SSW into NW/NC TX. A high Cape environment 3000-4000+ j/kg on 5/07, above average Theta-e, a dryline becoming well established west of I-35 with a Deep fetch of 65-70 Td's from a wide open Gulf and a cap thats just strong enough to allow for Discrete Supercell Development. My main concern with 5/07 is the 500mb zonal flow isn't particularly strong, however, Directional Shear looks more than adequite for rotating storms with some nice curved hodos C OK to the SSW into NW TX, if we can get some help in the afternoon hours from well timed short wave disturbances. LCL's through the I-35 cooridor also look pretty low as well. Its going to be the end of week 1 for May in OK...climatilogically an extremely favorable time frame for big time Tornadic Supercells in the Southern Plains. The most promising part of this coming weekends setup...is that it appears to only become more ripe/favorable 5/08-09....climotology has me fairly optomistic in the long range model output, that at least a couple of the upcoming weekend/early week setups will pan out...especially in OK ![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
![GFS_3_2011050218_F126_CAPE_SURFACE.png](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi1126.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl615%2Fstormchaser1972%2FGFS_3_2011050218_F126_CAPE_SURFACE.png&hash=8572272e7c027196a5a8f8edb2aa039a)
![GFS_3_2011050218_F126_34_5000N_97_5000W_HODO.png](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi1126.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl615%2Fstormchaser1972%2FGFS_3_2011050218_F126_34_5000N_97_5000W_HODO.png&hash=8d8117163dfde7684acc48762bb8fd37)
![GFS_3_2011050218_F126_ZLCLM_SURFACE.png](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi1126.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl615%2Fstormchaser1972%2FGFS_3_2011050218_F126_ZLCLM_SURFACE.png&hash=0c69145b545a85bce608c05d38168400)