2011-04-27 MISC: AL,TN,MS,KY,OH,IN,WV,GA

[George Dikun]

In addition to what Rob said, I'd like to point out that the difference between warning systems used in Japan and the United States aren't the systems themselves, but how people react to them. One can debate the merits of siren versus voice systems. But in the end, it is the responsibility of each individual to heed the advice given in official instructions.

Japanese society tends to be very orderly. When they receive a Tsunami alert with instructions to head to high ground, they generally do as they are instructed. In contrast, here in the United States, when an official tornado warning is issued and instructions given to seek shelter, all too often our reaction is to grab a Sony Handycam and head for the roof to get a better view. It is simply a difference in mindset between societies, rather than the warning systems used, that in the end makes the real difference.

The difference in reactions could also be due to the difference in calamities. If a tsunami warning is issued, a tsunami is very likely going to hit all/most of the areas under the warning. Though a tornado statistically affects very few people in the warned area. You could be "safely" filming a tornado right across the street. Often times, a tornado won't affect anyone (or it won't happen at all.)

 

[Jonathan Eakins]

In addition to what Rob said, I'd like to point out that the difference between warning systems used in Japan and the United States aren't the systems themselves, but how people react to them. One can debate the merits of siren versus voice systems. But in the end, it is the responsibility of each individual to heed the advice given in official instructions.

Japanese society tends to be very orderly. When they receive a Tsunami alert with instructions to head to high ground, they generally do as they are instructed. In contrast, here in the United States, when an official tornado warning is issued and instructions given to seek shelter, all too often our reaction is to grab a Sony Handycam and head for the roof to get a better view. It is simply a difference in mindset between societies, rather than the warning systems used, that in the end makes the real difference.

You're absolutely right, George. Even if hypothetically we did go to a voice system, it would still fall prey to the Calling Wolf Syndrome. Rob is right as well, there are other, better ways of disseminating the warning. But in the end it becomes Personal Responsibility to survive. Granted I know of how particularly bad this situation was with NWR out, as well as people who couldn't get to shelter...but you can't tell me that all 284 (latest count) died because they had no choice.

 

[George Widener]

I'll offer a little parallel here- in my line of work as a locomotive engineer we see countless people risk their lives every day at work when they ignore crossing protection, drive around gates, try to beat the train, etc. Most of the time they get away with it and the worst that happens is we turn in their plate info and they usually get a fine. But now and then someone does get hit, and if they survive most of thew time they'll be saying "I never saw the train"...I got to ask one person I hit after he said that "so you didn't see this gigantic mass of steel hurtling at you with all kinds of lights on and the whistle blowing, didn't see the crossing gate which you drove around, nor the lights at the crossing..."

The same thing happens with the storm warnings. You can provide 50 different kinds of warnings but ultimately it is up to the individual if they heed them or not. No doubt plenty of these fatalities were of people who DID heed the warnings and took cover, but as we all know with these high-end storms sometimes if you are not underground it may not be survivable.
As we say on the railroad- "You can't protect people from their own stupidity."

 

[John Farley]

People keep talking about voice systems as if they only exist in Japan. We do have them in some American cities as well - they are systems that employ both sirens and voice announcements. A fair number of places have upgraded to these or are in the process of doing so. Not just in big cities, either - I heard announcements from one of these systems several years ago while chasing in Robinson, IL.

 

[Jonathan Eakins]

People keep talking about voice systems as if they only exist in Japan. We do have them in some American cities as well - they are systems that employ both sirens and voice announcements. A fair number of places have upgraded to these or are in the process of doing so. Not just in big cities, either - I heard announcements from one of these systems several years ago while chasing in Robinson, IL.

I think they mean on a national scale. Yeah, I know Whelens have voice capability. Though I don't care for their siren sound. Give me a Thunderbolt 1003 any day.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Residents were told the tornadoes were coming up to 24 minutes ahead of time, but they were just too wide, too powerful and too locked onto populated areas to avoid a horrifying body count.

Very true. That along with some of the quotes on this thread, "we thought it was just another storm warning" etc bring to mind what I think is the key to the "final frontier" of severe local storm forecasting. It's not necessarily being able to pinpoint the exact track, time and severity of a particular storm or tornado (something which I don't believe humanity will every be able to do), but the ability to seperate the extreme, once-a-decade (or longer) disasters such as yesterday from the "mere outbreaks."

High risks and violent tornadoes seem to be an almost annual occurrence in the South. You had the Enterprise tornado in 2007, Super Tuesday in 2008, and Yazoo City last year. While devastating to the areas those tornadoes affected at their worst, the hardest hit areas were much smaller. The danger was just as high each of those days, and with just a few minor shifts in parameters and/or circumstances, could just as easily have been as bad as yesterday.

Whether the difference was purely a matter of circumstance (fewer tornadoes passing through densely populated areas at peak strength, lack of a previous round of severe storms that knocked out communications, etc) or meteorological (mesoscale subtleties, etc) is open to speculation.

I saw an earlier poster referenced Grazulis' The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm. Even 10 years after its publication, his insights into the problems and variances within the Fujita (now EF) scale in Chapters 6-7, and on tornado safety and warning response (Chapter 9) are very relevant today.

 

[L Kimbrel]

But-but-but- and here is where I tend to give people the benefit of the doubt. Because sir, I by God did NOT see that train. I ended up wrapping my little car around the crossing standard in a last-ditch effort to avoid hitting a train that came out from behind a field of corn at a level rural highway crossing. The signal lights flashed on just as the train appeared out of nowhere. In a later interview with the railroad (trying to collect damages from me to pay for the signal light!) the agent expressed his surprise. He hadn't heard there was a train involved. Yes, there are are a lot of oblivious, wrong-headed people out there. But there are always a few who are just in the wrong place at the wrong time and never saw it coming.

I'll offer a little parallel here- in my line of work as a locomotive engineer we see countless people risk their lives every day at work when they ignore crossing protection, drive around gates, try to beat the train, etc. Most of the time they get away with it and the worst that happens is we turn in their plate info and they usually get a fine. But now and then someone does get hit, and if they survive most of thew time they'll be saying "I never saw the train"...I got to ask one person I hit after he said that "so you didn't see this gigantic mass of steel hurtling at you with all kinds of lights on and the whistle blowing, didn't see the crossing gate which you drove around, nor the lights at the crossing..."

The same thing happens with the storm warnings. You can provide 50 different kinds of warnings but ultimately it is up to the individual if they heed them or not. No doubt plenty of these fatalities were of people who DID heed the warnings and took cover, but as we all know with these high-end storms sometimes if you are not underground it may not be survivable.
As we say on the railroad- "You can't protect people from their own stupidity."

 

[E. Clark]

Dennis Sherrod's taping live shots on the ground in Birmingham http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen right now.

 

[J Holder]

Guys,

There's way too much Monday Morning Quarterbacking going on. No matter how fast the warnings go out and how well the sirens work, the simple fact is you're not going to always beat nature and occasionally end up with days like this. No amount of preparation is going to make you ready for a massive outbreak like the one you saw.

One must also remember that one has to heed the warnings and take a little bit of personal responsibility. I'm not saying that the injured and killed didn't, as it sounds like well built multistory buildings that should have survived were flattened with people taking cover inside. But even here in Kansas there are too many folks with the attitude that "if the Lord wants me, he'll take me" when the sirens go off or just simply too absorbed in their own life, a literal tunnel vision, and were oblivious to what was going on around them.

 

[Jason Harris]

Greg Forbes just weighed in on the weather channel with his view for the Tuscaloosa wedge (seemed to largely be based on the aerial helicopter survey) that there was EF-5 damage; he said something along the lines that he never had seen before such a wide area of such damage.

 

[Danny Neal]

EF-4 confirmed in Catoosa Co, GA. Including the town of Ringgold.

 

[Danny Neal]

That Tuscaloosa hook is probably #1 ever in my book. Visually speaking I always compared everything to 5/3/99 (BREF wise) but this blows it out of the water to me.

This was the one just N of the Tuscaloosa storm.

 

[mikegeukes]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
707 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE APRIL 27 AND
28TH TORNADO OUTBREAK...

...EIGHT TORNADOES CONFIRMED SO FAR IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...ONE EF-4 TORNADO IN CATOOSA COUNTY...
...ONE EF-3 TORNADO IN DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES...
...ONE EF-3 TORNADO IN MERIWETHER...SPALDING AND HENRY COUNTIES...
...ONE EF-3 TORNADO IN POLK...FLOYD AND BARTOW COUNTIES...
...TWO EF-1 TORNADOES IN DADE COUNTY...
...EF1 TORNADO IN NEWTON...MORGAN AND GREENE COUNTIES...
...ONE EF-1 TORNADO IN WARREN COUNTY...

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=PNS&node=KFFC

 

[B Ozanne]

Guys,

There's way too much Monday Morning Quarterbacking going on. No matter how fast the warnings go out and how well the sirens work, the simple fact is you're not going to always beat nature and occasionally end up with days like this. No amount of preparation is going to make you ready for a massive outbreak like the one you saw.

One must also remember that one has to heed the warnings and take a little bit of personal responsibility. I'm not saying that the injured and killed didn't, as it sounds like well built multistory buildings that should have survived were flattened with people taking cover inside. But even here in Kansas there are too many folks with the attitude that "if the Lord wants me, he'll take me" when the sirens go off or just simply too absorbed in their own life, a literal tunnel vision, and were oblivious to what was going on around them.

I agree.

Even if you poured billions more into early warning systems and improved forecasting you may have only saved a few more lives. No matter what, bad things are still going to happen, and if it wasn't for the most advanced tornado forecasting, detection and monitoring system in the world we would have surely lost many more lives.

Just look at Japan. Their warning systems saved thousands of lives...but not everyone. Even the tsunami mitigation systems (like 10 meter walls) were laid to waste. And the cost benefit of a system like Japan has is great for them because earthquakes and tsunamis have the ability to kill millions. Even the worst tornado outbreaks conceived would never do that.

I'm not sure what the magic age is (I'm 32), but for anybody who has been around awhile the advancements in weather forecasting in the past 10-20 years is truly amazing. Just imagine what the next 20 years will bring.

 

[Jason Harris]

That Spitzer guy just finished interviewing Reed Timmer on CNN--note that Reed pointed out he would not try to enter a tornado like the Tuscaloosa wedge because anything would get lifted up. Going to interview the TN gov. next. (sadly, up to 288 dead now reported)
Another article:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...wuKloQ?docId=44056928e9f14e219529c41eec31db61

There's a pretty good chance some of these were a mile wide, on the ground for tens of miles and had wind speeds over 200 mph," said Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla.

Article talking about the horizontal vortices:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20110428/sc_livescience/raresidewaystornadocapturedonvideo