2011-04-27 MISC: AL,TN,MS,KY,OH,IN,WV,GA

[Brian Hartmann]

On the subject of 'ranking' (for lack of a better term) yesterday, it would be interesting to examine not only a numerical index of the tornados themselves, as others have suggested in this thread, but to then combine those values with an analysis of the population density along the tracks.

Analysis of the true number of people at risk from yesterday's events might show that the death toll, while awful in absolute terms, was not necessarily unexpected in relative terms. A comparison of such data from numerous outbreaks would be valuable (1974, 1965, 4/26/91, 5/27/97, 5/3/99, etc) in determining risk for urban vs rural locales. Any of these events could have been much worse (or much less worse) had tornado tracks been just slightly different than they were.

Not to be overlooked, though, is the fact that Northern Alabama was essentially back in 1974 if the information about the communications infrastructure being out of commission pan out.

Brian

 

[Kevin Bowman]

I was a little surprised by the lack of national media coverage outside of TWC. Granted I wasn't watching at the height of the outbreak, but an hour or two later - when it was clear that this was an event on a historical scale - there was nothing about it on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, etc. It was mostly coverage of the wedding or standard political stuff.

The wedding is much more important to the United States !!!!!!! I'm so sick of hearing about it.

 

[Will Campbell]

I think the NWS needs to begin regulation over all civilian/corporate weather agencies both on tv, radio and internet, so that the Warnings, Watches, and Severe Weather Outbreak Outlooks are all UNIFORM and the SAME. that way there is no confusion, and people won't be able to say "we really had no clue this would happen".

I posted my previous response before fully reading/understanding the context of this paragraph. Just so we are on the same page here, while the NWS does not "regulate" private civilian media, both because it's impractical and constitutionally impossible, where do you think media weather outlets get their warnings? You state you want all warnings to be "UNIFORM and the SAME", are you under the impression that each local weather tv station makes their own warnings? All meteorological outlets use the NWS warnings, so they are, in fact all "UNIFORM and the SAME". Much like the warning texts that are presented on GRLevel"X" are all feeds of the NWS warning statements, the media centers across the country retrieve their warning messages the same way. Listen closely the next time a media meteorologist reads warning text in its entirety, or practically every radio anchor. The first thing you will hear is "The NWS in (insert NWS WFO here) has issued a (insert warning/watch here)", then carries on with the remainder of the warning/watch message.

Not trying to bust your balls, just ensuring that you are aware of the misinformation presented.

 

[mwenzbauer]

I was a little surprised by the lack of national media coverage outside of TWC. Granted I wasn't watching at the height of the outbreak, but an hour or two later - when it was clear that this was an event on a historical scale - there was nothing about it on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, etc. It was mostly coverage of the wedding or standard political stuff.

I checked all of these right as the tornado was going thru Tuscaloosa... only CNN had a headline for it, and even then it was a small message at the top noting tornado emergencies for two Alabama cities (so even then it wasn't really the big, lead story)... all the lead stories centered on politics at the time this was happening... I also found that puzzling and disappointing.

That being said, I also thought TWC was outstanding... they and the NWS have been incredibly accurate this year with all of the major tornado events and should be commended.

 

[rdale]

I think he's trying to stop those who go above and beyond... For example, there have been many cases where I've said "There is no warning from the NWS on that cell, but if I were in [insert city in the path] I would be taking cover." I'm not sure why he wants that practice banned, but it's a bad idea. If the met doing that doesn't know what he's talking about and it's just a shower, then the viewers will notice and stop watching.

 

[Kirk Chestnut]

It will be interesting to watch as FEMA/FCC/NOAA roll out the new IPAWS national warning aggregator. The tools of the trade are ever improving. No doubt alot will be learned from yesterday's events.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

ok, change of subject here,

Yesterday when I was chasing with Adam Reagan, Jesse Hines, and Jennifer Hines, we hit Decatur. First cell didn't produce anything we could see, went west on 72/20, ended up at the Intersection of Red Hat Rd and 72/20 at the Mallard Fox Industrial Park. As we were driving west to intercept the 2nd cell which later produced the wall cloud, I was trying to take pics of some of the really intense lightining, but I didn't get anything. Anyhow, I almost deleted these last night but I didn't and glad I didnt now. But when I was reviewing them on the camera, i noticed a slight variation in gray on the photos, so this morning I bumped the contrast, and played with exposure and offset, and what I see appears to be the right side of a large rain wrapped wedge tornado.

At first I thought it was possibly dirt on the lens, but none of my other pictures have this variation or mark in them, so it was only at this instant the variation occurs.

I am going to send these into the NWS Office in Huntsville and see if they can verify a large wedge tornado in that vicinity at the time.

exactly 4:00 PM, driving west on HWY 72/20 in Decatur, AL, west of the boat ramp (Davis Street & 72/20), and east of Red Hat Rd (near the Mallard Fox Industrial Park).

What do you guys think? Rain-wrapped tornado?

All but the first pic on the 2nd page are of this part of the discussion. The very last pics are unaltered except for being re-sized.

Original

Contrast Bumped

Contrast Bump with area of variation circled

 

[Donovan Gruner]

The thing that really scares me was the lack of sirens I heard while chasing NE Texas on Tuesday. Only one time did I hear sirens all day, and it was on a storm that had weakened considerably and no longer posed much of a tornado threat. We even gassed up in a town right in the path of the meso of the storm we were on, and didn't hear sirens. When you looked off to the southwest, you could see a MASSIVE wall cloud heading straight towards us. People were outside looking around, and others seemed completely oblivious to what was going on... people walking dogs, riding bikes. It really pissed me off seeing that nobody knew, or maybe just didn't care. There had even been a report of a tornado on the ground a few minutes before then. I don't know how anyone in their right mind would think it was a good idea to go for a bike ride or walk their dog during a tornado warning, so I would assume that they just didn't know.

I think the death toll can only be attributed to one thing and one thing only... people just don't pay attention to the weather. No matter how good the coverage is, or how many times they hear about the tornado threat, they usually say, "I had no idea it was coming. We had no warning," although warnings WERE issued in a timely manner.

 

[Jeff Duda]

ok, change of subject here,

Yesterday when I was chasing with Adam Reagan, Jesse Hines, and Jennifer Hines, we hit Decatur. First cell didn't produce anything we could see, went west on 72/20, ended up at the Intersection of Red Hat Rd and 72/20 at the Mallard Fox Industrial Park. As we were driving west to intercept the 2nd cell which later produced the wall cloud, I was trying to take pics of some of the really intense lightining, but I didn't get anything. Anyhow, I almost deleted these last night but I didn't and glad I didnt now. But when I was reviewing them on the camera, i noticed a slight variation in gray on the photos, so this morning I bumped the contrast, and played with exposure and offset, and what I see appears to be the right side of a large rain wrapped wedge tornado.

At first I thought it was possibly dirt on the lens, but none of my other pictures have this variation or mark in them, so it was only at this instant the variation occurs.

I am going to send these into the NWS Office in Huntsville and see if they can verify a large wedge tornado in that vicinity at the time.

exactly 4:00 PM, driving west on HWY 72/20 in Decatur, AL, west of the boat ramp (Davis Street & 72/20), and east of Red Hat Rd (near the Mallard Fox Industrial Park).

What do you guys think? Rain-wrapped tornado?

Without any other information or pictures from you, I can't give you an opinion. Where was this feature in relation to other parts of a traditional tornadic supercell? Was there any damage or a tornado reported in that area? That looks a lot like the mysterious picture I posted in my account of the 04/09/11 chase in NW IA (second clarifying post here). It could be a tornado if other evidence points to it. It could also just be a wet downburst given the curvature and otherwise unconvincing look to the area around it.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Drew, come on man.


I think they've gotten incredibly better this year when severe weather is imminent. Yesterday they were absolutely great in their coverage. Who better to have detailing an outbreak than Dr. Forbes? I sat here in Oklahoma and was glued to Dr. Forbes analysis of the situation. Between 33/40 and TWC this thing was covered from all sides. Dr. Forbes pinpointed every supercell and told exactly where the tornadoes would be. Not to mention the day before this event TWC was crying "outbreak right here!!!"

Not a joke in my opinion.

well to be fair I wasn't watching yesterday, I was out chasing in Decatur. But Monday night when Arkansas got hit by that alleged EF-5 that turned out to be an EF-2, and there was tornadoes all over the place, they gave that like 3 minutes of coverage, and then it was another 40 minutes before they came back to discuss it, with numerous commercials, and not a word out of Dr. Forbes.

Cantore and some other schmuck blabbed for about 8 minutes total, then 40 minutes of commercials, local weather on your 8's twice, and that was it.

I am typically the last person to back up or defend media meteorologists, but I will give credit where it is due. Dr. Forbes has been absolutely fantastic for all of 2010 and 2011. I don't know if you didn't watch TWC because you were in the field, or just he said she said reports, but they CONSTANTLY emphasized how dangerous the situation was, frequently referenced the PDS watch texts and meanings, on multiple occassions used "tornado outbreak of historical proportions" during their telecast, and (although still somewhat laughable to me) issued a 10/10 on their little "TOR:CON" toy. While I think tor:con is nothing more than a media stunt to an extent, I have to say that the research and forecasting that Dr. Forbes puts into those indexes has yet to be proven highly unreliable.

In summary, I think that TWC should be commended for their coverage. With the exception of a few webcast local stations and local affiliates in the area being affected, no other major news venues covered the situation as it was occurring, or at least that I saw. Fox, CNN, all of the other major news networks were covering political and business topics while the south was being annhilated. I am in no way comparing this to 9/11, but try to find a major network not covering that on the afternoon of that somber day...not happening. While this event is relatively pale in comparison, it should still be at least PIP'd on the other new networks IMO to give the best chance of bringing the situation to the attention of those that will/may be affected.

sorry I was in the field yesterday and I'm not criticizing them for yesterday, cause again I don't know what the coverage was, mainly going off what I saw Monday night, and what've I've seen in the past several years.

I posted my previous response before fully reading/understanding the context of this paragraph. Just so we are on the same page here, while the NWS does not "regulate" private civilian media, both because it's impractical and constitutionally impossible, where do you think media weather outlets get their warnings? You state you want all warnings to be "UNIFORM and the SAME", are you under the impression that each local weather tv station makes their own warnings? All meteorological outlets use the NWS warnings, so they are, in fact all "UNIFORM and the SAME". Much like the warning texts that are presented on GRLevel"X" are all feeds of the NWS warning statements, the media centers across the country retrieve their warning messages the same way. Listen closely the next time a media meteorologist reads warning text in its entirety, or practically every radio anchor. The first thing you will hear is "The NWS in (insert NWS WFO here) has issued a (insert warning/watch here)", then carries on with the remainder of the warning/watch message.

Not trying to bust your balls, just ensuring that you are aware of the misinformation presented.

not the warnings, but if a severe weather outbreak is expected and noted in a Convective Outlook, then local news/civilian met's need to put something along the lines of

"The NWS/SPC are predicting a major severe weather outbreak with the possibility for tornadoes for (insert day(s) ), damaging hail, flooding, lightning and winds and we'll continue to monitor that situation as it develops and keep you informed and up to date".

thats what I mean about summarizing the SPC Convective Outlooks for potential outbreaks. Rarely do I ever hear any news media Met's here in Nashville or in Kansas City (only 2 cities I've ever lived in) echo when the SPC/NWS says there's gonna be an outbreak. the only civilian met, i can give props to is Bryan Busby on KMBC 9 News, because he is always echoing the SPC/NWS with the regards for potential severe weather, and then he gives his synopsis on what he thinks will occur, when it will occur, and where it will occur.

hope that clears up what I meant.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Without any other information or pictures from you, I can't give you an opinion. Where was this feature in relation to other parts of a traditional tornadic supercell? Was there any damage or a tornado reported in that area? That looks a lot like the mysterious picture I posted in my account of the 04/09/11 chase in NW IA (second clarifying post here). It could be a tornado if other evidence points to it. It could also just be a wet downburst given the curvature and otherwise unconvincing look to the area around it.

according to the GRLEVEL3 at that time, that storm was about 1 mile due North of us moving NE at 55 mph and it was tornado warned. There was damage to a gas plant, and several businesses near the Mallard Fox Industrial Park on Red Hat Rd. There was insulation all over the place, aluminum siding from the industrial plant bent all to hell, some of the a/c units and exhaust fans on top of the some of the industrial buildings were pretty mangled. We got ran off by security before we could take any good pictures of the damage, said the company didn't allow pictures being taken of their building.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

284 now confirmed dead, death toll continues to climb

http://www.whnt.com/news/sns-rt-usreport-us-weathertre73p2pk-20110426,0,6802001.story

 

[Richard Cox]

While damage to communications infrastructure could easily have made it more difficult to notify the public, I'm not sure any warning system could ever completely overcome apathy and general lack of respect for science. I don't expect the lay public to be as informed or interested in weather phenomena as a community such as this, but comments like "I didn't realize it was a tornado because it was so big" are difficult for me to understand. It's not like wedge tornadoes aren't well documented. Beginning with the Wichita Falls storm in 1979, they've been repeatedly filmed and made available to the public. The outbreak of May 1999 was extremely well documented, among others. But major outbreaks just aren't that common, and the average person doesn't watch hours of tornado footage a year like someone here might. In Tulsa the sirens are sounded at least a couple of times every year, but in my 18 years here there has never been a significant tornado in the city limits. One day there will be, and people will say, "But I thought the Arkansas river protected us!"

This past winter we set several snowfall records, including single-season all-time snowfall. When the third consecutive winter storm warning went up, a rumor began circulating around the city that weather experts were downplaying the severity of the upcoming storm because "they" didn't want panicked shoppers to descend upon already-decimated grocery stores. I tried explaining to a few friends that forecast models were available to the public, and that interpretation of them was an inexact science, but that information wasn't as alluring to them as the idea of a weather conspiracy. It seems science is always going to be up against humankind's propensity for a sort of willful ignorance, no matter how much data is available. It's frustrating, but I'm not sure what more can be done.

 

[jeremy wilson]

The thing that really scares me was the lack of sirens I heard while chasing NE Texas on Tuesday.

We noticed the same thing. We heard sirens in Gun Barrel City and then in Corsicanna. But out of the other dozen or more towns we went through we never heard anything including one time when we were watching a large tornado at night right next to a town that produced damage there.

On a side note,Pratt City damage pics looking like EF5 to me.

 

[N Parker]

Just a small note to add for Dr. Forbes. I "liked" his Facebook page, and everytime he posts, it updates my wall. He is ALWAYS giving long range predictions for threat areas and what threats could be expected. 95% of the time, he is spot on. But to get a better preception of what he deals with, just read some of the random posters to his wall. The general lack of decency and respect is lost. The guy is a "national" figure. (Meaning he is seen all over the U.S. and other places) To ask him if its going to rain in your podunk town when there are tornados on the ground and then get furious when he won't respond.

These people had PLENTY of warning IMHO.