2011-04-27 MISC: AL,TN,MS,KY,OH,IN,WV,GA

[Trey Thee]

Ah, yeah, predicting initiation from a space and time standpoint, agree we could possibly improve that a good deal. Honestly wonder how far we'll be able to get there -- I haven't put the time and research in -- but something to shoot for.

No clue how far we will be able to get...but we're doing things today, producing predictions, radar images, etc that are far more advanced then what we had 5 and 10 years ago. 20 or 30 years ago, what we're doing today was probably unimaginable. I think despite the tragic outcome, we will have some tremendous good come out of this outbreak that could lead to more lives saved down the road.

As for people not taking it seriously? You'll always have people like that...as Ron White says "you can't fix stupid".

 

[E. Clark]

I'm not sure what it is going to take to get people to heed the warnings. I watched an interview earlier on CNN that had me floored. Gentleman stated it was a complete surprise and they had no warning in Tuscaloosa. Really? The reporter let it drop after he said that but the person in the studio made him ask if the tornado sirens were not going off. The gentleman stated they were but figured it was just for another severe thunderstorm. So while you can issue warnings and even broadcast the tornado live on the air (such as in Tuscaloosa) people are still going to ignore those warnings and go on with their daily lives. So when a deadly, extemely violent tornado comes screaming into their neighborhood, they are surprised and had no warning. Go figure.

Watching the Tsunami in Japan I was stunned at the verbal warnings that were blaring out over the cities. This is why I said just a siren is not going to do it. A very loud, verbal "Tornado on the ground in (name of town/city)!! Take Cover!!" repeated in between the siren wails would make a much bigger and more personalized impression on people than just 'another siren going off'.

 

[rdale]

But then what do people do for the warnings issued when a tornado is NOT on the ground? "Just" a siren?

 

[E. Clark]

And yes- I think the met did a heroic job today. Some of these guys need medals. I was screaming inside for people to take cover watching the live reports and feeds. In Alabama especially they were right on top of every sig.

 

[E. Clark]

But then what do people do for the warnings issued when a tornado is NOT on the ground? "Just" a siren?

How about 'In the Area'? I mean, the recording can say anything according to the situation. But I agree with the Japanese that a verbal is much more effective.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Early warning sirens are meant for people who are outside, it tells them to take cover inside.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

That would confirm the report that noaa radios weren't functioning during the peak of the outbreak.

that doesn't make any sense to me, because I was still getting alerts on my scanner, maybe they were just being tasked by another NWS office?

 

[Michael Riedl]

that doesn't make any sense to me, because I was still getting alerts on my scanner, maybe they were just being tasked by another NWS office?

I had heard that power was out and the people had hard wired radios didn't work,

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

CNN now reporting 247 now confirmed dead, 162 in Alabama

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I think Japan has the best solution - a multifaceted approach. Every cellphone gets a text during an emergency. Each commercial building has a system of speakers installed through which emergency info is piped. Each town has a network of sirens and the sirens have real humans reading out emergency info after the initial warning blast.

 

[Trey Thee]

How about 'In the Area'? I mean, the recording can say anything according to the situation. But I agree with the Japanese that a verbal is much more effective.

You say that would be effective and 50 years ago the sirens were effective. Eventually people become complacent. In an area that sees severe weather every year, some people will refuse to pay attention and refuse to accept responsibility for their action (or in this case inaction). Verbal warnings would be effective the first few years. Then, just like the siren, there will be a percentage of the population that pays no attention to anything of significant value and or consequence.

I just read an article on my lunch break, numerous people interviewed..."It was calm the day before, we knew it might storm but it storms a lot around here, we had no clue this would happen". Despite the fact that all the local mets, the SPC and the NWS were talking about this on Monday and really talking it up Tuesday night.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

I've had an idea for over a year now of creating a public activated warning system, that is supplemented by the pros. Basically folks would text Tornado to 911. If enough triggers are sent to the local 911 center a mass texting & social media message is sent out to people in the geographic area(size to be determined)... "Tornado spoted by X number of your neighbors please be aware and seek shelter". The system can be calibrated to the point where false alarms are a rare occurence. Reports can be tracked by the cell the signal came from and a tornado could be triangulated in seconds, then warning messages could be sent out to all users in a certain area of the reports. It would sort of take a life of its own and could almost go on unmonitored. The same system could be used by the NWS. But to work it could only be used in tor warning situations. OTherwise it would become noise to most folks.

Similiar methods are being researched to report accidents and terrorist attacks. like many have said when major class Tornados are on the ground generally the NWS gets the warnings out fast... the problem is getting them to the people. In most towns the warning systems are pretty much a joke, particularly small towns. They are either overused, undermaintained, or run by morans.

 

[jeremy wilson]

I think I've seen many instances of EF5 damage now. Of course I could be wrong. Example of me being wrong: I was in Tushka and Mapleton when it hit those places. I assumed low end EF3 damage in Mapleton and was right. In Tushka the damage seemed much worse as there were many cars tossed, clean foundations and two story brick buildings basically destroyed. I assumed high end EF4 there and was way off. So who knows what kinda damage I'm seeing and guessing at. I wish we could get a Tim Marshal opinion.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

I just read an article on my lunch break, numerous people interviewed..."It was calm the day before, we knew it might storm but it storms a lot around here, we had no clue this would happen". Despite the fact that all the local mets, the SPC and the NWS were talking about this on Monday and really talking it up Tuesday night.

here's a reason I hate the Weather Channel....when the SPC puts out notices like yesterday's PDS, they hardly mention anything along the same lines. They never use the words Tornado Outbreak, all they say is "potential for severe weather". Most people watch the Weather Channel, and unfortunately, all that channel is, is a ridiculous joke of an excuse for a weather reporting station.

I think the NWS needs to begin regulation over all civilian/corporate weather agencies both on tv, radio and internet, so that the Warnings, Watches, and Severe Weather Outbreak Outlooks are all UNIFORM and the SAME. that way there is no confusion, and people won't be able to say "we really had no clue this would happen".

In addition to be a meteorologists, they should have to go through some courses given by the NWS and become certified (kinda like with Microsoft) to NWS standards. It won't mean they can't make their own forecasts still, but they should still have to summarize NWS Convective Outlooks for potential for severe weather outbreaks.

Civilian/Corporate Meteorology has become very flawed, and Ive known of several tv stations both here in Nashville and back home in Kansas City, who dropped the ball repeatedly during outbreaks (5/4/2003 WDAF-TV Fox News made no mention of severe weather potential, they just said some thunderstorms would hit, when the SPC had issued an outbreak advisory 3 days prior). Nashville stations did the same thing here during the Good Friday tornado, when the SPC issued a Special Weather Statement the night before, but not ONE of those local stations said anything about possible severe weather or tornadoes.

 

[Andy Wade]

Verbal warning messages and such are great ideas, but the first step absolutely has to be a tremendous Dixie Alley awareness campaign using the images from Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. I had the illusion that Dixie Alley residents were somewhat aware of the high threat of tornadoes in their region, and that their high tornado fatality rate compared to the Plains was due to a higher population density and a tendency for Southern twisters to move quickly and be hidden by rain, darkness, and terrain. Yesterday shattered that perception, as it was a daytime outbreak of non-HP supercells moving at high, but not extreme, speeds. People ignored sirens and were unaware of tornado emergency issuances, and there were reports of Birmingham drivers heading straight into the monster on Interstates. Most frustratingly, there were numerous mobile home fatalities. The NWS offices and the SPC were spot-on yesterday, so clearly there's a disconnect along the intended chain of events that leads from warning issuance to residents finding safe shelter. The only points at which that could happen are warning dissemination and public response to warnings.