2011-04-16 FCST: NC, SC, VA, GA

[Mike Johnston]

Well, this system may end up being a legitimate 3-day threat. Usually, by the time these surging upper-level lows reach the east coast, they're very positively-tilted and there is just not enough instability to set up severe weather. In this case, though, it looks like the system is taking on an overall negative tilt. This, along with onshore flow from the Atlantic, looks to be setting up some instability along the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. The wind fields are pretty decent also. Perhaps the opportunity for a local chase today. We're currently 72t/67td here in Charleston, SC with southeast surface winds. I see that the axis of instability could extend as far north as Fredericksburg, VA later today.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Yes, parameters are very impressive for that far east. Trough has maintained its nice negative tilt for 3 days now. RUC is forecasting SE surface winds (near 90 deg shear) throughout the day over the Carolinas with at least adequate instability, for EHIs close to ~5. My friend Cliff is chasing in E NC, where looks like the best time will be mid-late afternoon-ish, before the good support shoves off shore.