Andrew Stoller
EF5
Time to start today's now thread. Tcu punching through the cap in northeast IA and west central WI. Storm is exploding in northeast IA.
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2011-04-10 NOW: WI/MN/IA/IL
- Thread starter Andrew Stoller
- Start date
Eddie Natenberg
EF1
For anyone chasing, I have been playing around with a realtime nowcast run 3km 8 hour forecast every 2 hours, right now only fields are level 1 reflectivity and level 1 vertical vorticity.
This will run intermittently while I have time.
http://products-db.meso.com/openplots/STORM/
Edit: I should add some meteorological significance to my post so I am not breaking posting rules, Current watch box is pretty far north which is in line with storm mode and slightly backing wind profile (as compared to farther south). So best tornado potential from current forming convections seems to be limited to the northern 2/3rds of WI.
Eddie
This will run intermittently while I have time.
http://products-db.meso.com/openplots/STORM/
Edit: I should add some meteorological significance to my post so I am not breaking posting rules, Current watch box is pretty far north which is in line with storm mode and slightly backing wind profile (as compared to farther south). So best tornado potential from current forming convections seems to be limited to the northern 2/3rds of WI.
Eddie
Last edited by a moderator:
Logan Karsten
One thing that is driving me up the wall is why they have the tornado watch / threat area all the way up the Michigan peninsula. Looking at mesoanalysis shows very cool/stable air north of a Green Bay to Neillsville line. I am not familiar with the area, but looking at NOHRSC SWE analysis, there still seems to be some snow on the ground up there, yet they have this 90/60 PDS watch all the way up to lake Superior? The threat area for tornadoes seems to be very localized to the interactions of the storms with the warm front in the area.
weskranz
EF0
Three tornado warnings now active....cells rapidly intensifying.
rdale
EF5
If you look at actual obs, it's in the low 70's there. And per the visible there's no snow on the ground. If the storms in NW Wisc keep cranking, nothing should stop them from continuing into the western UP.
It's always a good idea to pull in real-world reports when looking at an analysis. The same thing is happening in SE Wisc where RUC is showing little support but it has temps in the 70-degree range thanks to the lake's influence -- but actual temps are low 80's!
It's always a good idea to pull in real-world reports when looking at an analysis. The same thing is happening in SE Wisc where RUC is showing little support but it has temps in the 70-degree range thanks to the lake's influence -- but actual temps are low 80's!
Mike Smith
Hook echo moving into Foster, WI (along I-94) at the moment.
Logan Karsten
rdale, you are correct. RUC analysis seems to show this major hole in northern WI regarding surface air mass. I wonder if the NOHRSC analysis has any impact on RUC analysis, that would be interesting. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_mod...sm_swe/201104/nsm_swe_2011041005_National.jpg
rdale
EF5
SC Wisc shouldn't have the same tornado threat due to timing, but not out of the question to get some SVR as the front gets closer into the late evening / overnight. Just depends on how the cap does, still +4C at MKE.
Elaine Spencer
EF3
Here in central IL it got up to 88 degrees this afternoon; then some clouds moved in a couple of hours ago, the wind became less strong, and the temperature dropped noticeably. However we are still not supposed to get storms until well after sunset, when the cold front gets closer. SPC has an MD up saying a watch is possible a little to our west (E MO/WC IL), but not quite including my area (SPI).
Will the late afternoon cloudiness perhaps take the edge off the instability, and mean the storms will be less severe (i.e. linear/wind producers, rather than tornadic) once they get here?
Will the late afternoon cloudiness perhaps take the edge off the instability, and mean the storms will be less severe (i.e. linear/wind producers, rather than tornadic) once they get here?
rdale
EF5
There really isn't much to support a widespread tornado threat over your part of IL that I can see... As of now there has only been 1 tornado report out of WI either.
amytierney
EF0
We're (wisconsin) now up to 6 tornado reports and a couple of hail report of greater than 2in" in diameter. SC Wisconsin has now been added to the Tornado Watch and we have storms blowing up from a line from Iowa all the way down to Texas!!!! Looking at the models (I am still quite the newbie at them) but it looks pretty rough for a few here, although I could be wrong.
rdale
EF5
I think you'll be fine there, the better wind profiles remain to your north. Looks like the few tornado reports so far were from a pair of supercells that moved over north/central Wisc.
Michael Riedl
EF2
Supercell entering the DFW area had a really nice hook echo for a while, hopefully it weakens.
