Ok so I was in the middle of typing up a long thread about the 2008 forecast of tornadoes when apparently I hit a button and the page went back and logged me off. 
So Ill try to rewrite what I was about to say but it will be shortened as I dont remember everything I said.
Anyways. I have a strong feeling that this year will be a all-time record setting year in # of tornadoes, tornado intensity, damage, fatalities, etc...
Now you may think its easy for me to say this based on fact we're so far ahead this year and in terms of such colossal scale in all factors just listed. But several things go into this. One being history. If history means anything, we're screwed. The last time I can remember a major tornado outbreak in January was 1999 and we all know what kind of year that was. Also several meteorological factors come in to play that can best be described as positive feedback mechanisms. Now Gabe hit on this earlier in the week so maybe he can give a better detailed explanation than me. But take a look at the Gulf. We already have 60-70 dews in place. Normally this time of year, fronts would still be making it to the Gulf and scouring it clean. Secondly, look at current snow cover.
While this is a crude map, it still shows that there is significant snow cover in upper midwest and Rocky Mtn states (as well as KS from looking at todays vis sat). This keep surface temps down as all the heating goes into melting snow rather then heating surface. Thus preventing cold air masses that come down from modifying. So when this unmodified cold air comes down and encounters unseasonably warm air mass, its going to have dramatic effects. Now whats causing this early surge of mositure? I dont know, it might possibly be the fact were in an La Nina cycle. Now I dont have dont on hand to confirm that but it is something to look at. Also look at this years winter as a whole. A wet/cold winter will lead to greater ground/soil moisture which leads to more evapotranspiration which prevents boundary layer from mixing out so early in the day,etc...
Now those are just but a few mesoscale features that I can point to as to whats possibly causing an increase in tornadoes but obviously im leaving a lot out, i.e. shear. With that in mind, it is interesting to note last Mondays (2/4) 500mb map. The synoptic flow was as meridional as Ive ever seen it this early in the year. The flow was as about as u-shaped as I've ever seen it across the U.S.
So I think were in for a year of tornadoes unlike we havent seen in at least a decade. Hopefully others here on this forum with more meteorological knowledge then me can expound upon this.
With regard to this thread topic I came across some interesting statistical data. Heres a little of what I came across.
FROM: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
NOTE: Data in this figure only goes back to 2005, therefore it doesnt really put this year in perspective.
So Ill try to rewrite what I was about to say but it will be shortened as I dont remember everything I said.
Anyways. I have a strong feeling that this year will be a all-time record setting year in # of tornadoes, tornado intensity, damage, fatalities, etc...
Now you may think its easy for me to say this based on fact we're so far ahead this year and in terms of such colossal scale in all factors just listed. But several things go into this. One being history. If history means anything, we're screwed. The last time I can remember a major tornado outbreak in January was 1999 and we all know what kind of year that was. Also several meteorological factors come in to play that can best be described as positive feedback mechanisms. Now Gabe hit on this earlier in the week so maybe he can give a better detailed explanation than me. But take a look at the Gulf. We already have 60-70 dews in place. Normally this time of year, fronts would still be making it to the Gulf and scouring it clean. Secondly, look at current snow cover.
While this is a crude map, it still shows that there is significant snow cover in upper midwest and Rocky Mtn states (as well as KS from looking at todays vis sat). This keep surface temps down as all the heating goes into melting snow rather then heating surface. Thus preventing cold air masses that come down from modifying. So when this unmodified cold air comes down and encounters unseasonably warm air mass, its going to have dramatic effects. Now whats causing this early surge of mositure? I dont know, it might possibly be the fact were in an La Nina cycle. Now I dont have dont on hand to confirm that but it is something to look at. Also look at this years winter as a whole. A wet/cold winter will lead to greater ground/soil moisture which leads to more evapotranspiration which prevents boundary layer from mixing out so early in the day,etc...
Now those are just but a few mesoscale features that I can point to as to whats possibly causing an increase in tornadoes but obviously im leaving a lot out, i.e. shear. With that in mind, it is interesting to note last Mondays (2/4) 500mb map. The synoptic flow was as meridional as Ive ever seen it this early in the year. The flow was as about as u-shaped as I've ever seen it across the U.S.
So I think were in for a year of tornadoes unlike we havent seen in at least a decade. Hopefully others here on this forum with more meteorological knowledge then me can expound upon this.
With regard to this thread topic I came across some interesting statistical data. Heres a little of what I came across.
FROM: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
NOTE: Data in this figure only goes back to 2005, therefore it doesnt really put this year in perspective.
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