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2008-04-03 NOW OK/TX/ARK

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Tor Watch for much of Central OK and NC Texas just issued with storms developing along and west of the I 35 corridor.
 
Severe cell heading NE out of Wichita Falls area. I'll hope to intercept near Ardmore if it works out.
 
The dryline is already mixing east in W. Oklahoma. Tds drop from the mid 60s to low 50s from Guthrie to SPS. Tds drop drastically out near Hollis <20 F.
 
Pretty decent looking storms ongoing attm, but I have to admit I'm very skeptical of the chances for tornadoes, or even severity for an extended length of time with the wind fields as funky as they are. Last hour's (19Z) data from Mesoanalysis (and elsewhere) indicates SW sfc winds, ~W 850, SW 700. Though Td's are fine, I'm expecting these things to crap out and/or go linear pretty quickly. Bulk of PVA is still in AZ, so sfc L is not getting the job done.

I'm posting this because now I'll surely be wrong, and you guys in the field can score some good tubes.;) I decided to sit this event out.
 
Im starting to wonder if the storms that are going on now and dying out now will produce any kind of boundaries that may serve to back the winds. This would obviously not help the current storms but more or less the ones still back to the W and others that may form in NC TX. Just a thought....
 
The storm between Archer City and Henrietta, TX definitely appears to be organizing quite a bit. Velocity is probably the most impressive so far since it has been around. Charles Edwards appears to be right in the perfect spot of the storm, so will be interesting to see his storm report. Hail size still looks crazy. Storm though appears to be surrounded, so we should have some good pics later on.

The two new cells back west of Throckmorton are shooting up pretty fast well. Probably see those SVR warned here before long. Chris Whitehead is heading towards there now.
 
The surface winds seem to have backed to the SSE b/w 5-15knts. The temperature and dew point spreads are little far apart seeing a 81/59 south of Henrietta by Graham. So i am guessing these are some what high based at the moment. I was looking at David D's cam and was wondering the same as to his position.
 
The hail core on that storm in Clay Co. is quite impressive likely at least baseball's (probably larger) falling just down wind of the updraft on that beast. Storms back to the SW have more easterly movement, so if they are able to remain isolated the movement will increase storm relative shear and helecity and those will be the favored storms for tornadoes.
 
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