2007 Season Review

  • Thread starter Thread starter Michael O'Keeffe
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CHASES: 17
MILES: 9,806
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: 577 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 6
TORNADOES: 15
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in 2.8
STATES CHASED: KS,MO,NE,OK,SD,TX

Considering I basically balked the end of February and all of March, I had a good year. Wasn't a great video year, mainly because of being in the backseat and lots of night chasing, but a good tornado year....my 3rd-best all-time for total tornadoes observed & total tornado days, and my all-time best tornado/chase success ratio. Observed one of the most historic events of all-time in the Greensburg, KS tornadic storm, including three tornadoes over a mile wide. Compared to most my numbers are modest, but considering what I didn't chase, I still kicked some butt.
 
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This post will probably get considered off-topic and may vanish... but as said by someone else recently I would love to see someone start a thread with the title "2007 Season in Review - with PROOF" where you have to prove your count. Certainly not discrediting everyone in this thread... but there are certainly some interesting tallies, especially on some counts where I was on the same supercell and counted less than half of what others have down.

Bah well, I'm sure we don't need to get into debating it... but incase anyone felt up for it I decided to pour the fuel.

(1) I've never had a problem posting for 'proof' but I simply don't have the ways/means attm.

(2) With so many differing opinions (from mine) about what is/isn't a tornado, I wouldn't post stuff on here because I wouldn't feel like arguing with all the people who would start threads about they don't think my tornado # whatever was really a tornado. I've had that debate with a million people over the years and I'm tired of it. I post my numbers as I record them.....disagree or be skeptical all you like, just don't tell me about it :-)
 
Chases: 10
Miles: ~10, 000
Tornadoes: 9
Tornado Days: 4/21, 4/23, 5/5, 5/22
States Chased: TX, OK, KS, MO, NE, IA
Tornado States: KS, TX
Largest Hail: 4"
Highest Wind: 80mph

This spring had plenty of highs and lows...with some bad decisions either whether or not to chase... or to stay put at my target area. The March 28th and May 4th events are ones that stick in my craw. I wish I had those two days back to make a decision to have taken the day off and chased. Paid the price on April 21st on the Tulia TX tornado and got pummeled by a very nasty hailcore as the tornado passed southeast and then lifted east of our position on the "tough part of the hook" on I-27 (about 2 miles north of Tulia). I probably witnessed some of the best structure I've ever seen on May 22nd in Trego and Graham Counties Kansas. That made that particular chase very enjoyable even though one tornado was all that came about.

I am pretty confident the tornado totals will be added to this fall, so this is just my preliminary count for 2007 YTD. Not a huge year so far, but not as bad as last year.
 
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PROOF

I still am working on my thoughts, logs and accounts etc for 2007 but I did not want to wait as this thread is very interesting .

This year has been must better for me compared to 2005, 2006 (absymal).

Well I also find the numbers (of tornado scores ) interesting and was thinking about posting such a thread. What do most chasers put down as a "tornado score."
I have not seen half the number most of you have in all my years since 2001 for full chasing . In fact most of you have seen more one year then in all my years. I teach so I can't get off whenever I can.
But I am not jealous or angry about it. I enjoy all of your work websites, blogs and reviews on the stormtrack forum and what you-all have seen and accomplished. There are cool people in this forum and I have enjoyed meeting many of you in person or by email etc or the upcoming chaser party in Overland Park (6/30 --still want to come contact us.)

I really don't want to make (tornado) "waves " so to speak. I mean I only post a tornado score if I can photograph/ videotape it or see it . I usually can back it up as I usually observe it.
As the Comet Observer Award Coordinator for the Astronomical League, I have to verify the observations. Their veritifcation can be either sketches, digital camera or regular camera film along with additional information (I have a form that is needed to fill out). What they send me and their data, well it is their word that is part of the process.

They work hard to send me the information and you all work hard during your chases to see beautiful structures, interesting tornadoes and weather phenomenon and post all your info. This has helped me enjoy a heck of a lot more that I have seen around these parts compared to the hurricanes and weather in Rhode Island where I grew up.

Well a couple years ago in Texas on a chase with Doug Raflik, I noticed an interested tornado like structure on my video. This would have been my "first " tornado in 2001 and ever. However I posted a pic to see what other chasers thought. Most thought chasers thlought it was a landspout / gustanado although some though it was a tornado. So especially being it would have been my first tornado , I did not count it. I mean if it sounds like a duck, looks like a duck, seems like a duck, it isn't necessarily a duck- in this case a tornado. Still it was nice but I felt I could not notch is as a tornado.It did look like a tornado. So I had to wait until seeing one a couple years later near the airport in Missouri (Platt City).
I also wonder whether some people count them as torns if they are in the general area and never really see the tornado. What do we call that a "illusionnado?"
But all in all I believe everyone's counts. In the end , it is their chase and what they think "that counts." I am happy for them and their effort. Sure I would like to see more myself but that's why we all chase and are in the pursuit. Not to get a better count notch more on our belt (although I am sure I and other like to ) , but to see some cool weather and structures.

So far I think I can claim 1 from May 5 with Brian Stertz and the crew in Kansas south of Great Bend. One in our group posted a clip of the tornado lightning lit. But I really can't count that (?) unless I see it on my videotape which I am still working on. Still saw cool structures, rainbows, 80 mph winds, mammatus etc in the 4 chases.

I have noticed what chasers put down as their list for the year. I have noticed that most chasers however do not include storm structures seen (maybe you all leave that for your blogs and websites?) in the listing. I would think others need to add that to the list as I will do later.
Also how many torns are observed, photographed or videotaped (for verification or >?)
Here is an accumulation of lists for the year that people put down

Chase days:
CHASED STATES :
CHASE (AVERAGE) DISTANCE:
Season rank: __/10
Total mileage: (about)
farthest (miles):
Most miles between target and tornado intercept:
Number of Tornadoes:
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in ____
Tornadoes #:
Tornado States:
Tornadoes # observed/photographed/videotaped :
Tornadoes # observed:
Tornadoes # photographed:
Tornadoes # videotaped:
Tornadoes (kind/type) seen:
Favorite Tornado:
Multiple simultaneous tornado days:
Hail dates :
Hail largest seen: ___"
Wind Strongest Wind Gust: ---mph
Structures observed:


:::
This post will probably get considered off-topic and may vanish... but as said by someone else recently I would love to see someone start a thread with the title "2007 Season in Review - with PROOF" where you have to prove your count. Certainly not discrediting everyone in this thread... but there are certainly some interesting tallies, especially on some counts where I was on the same supercell and counted less than half of what others have down.

Bah well, I'm sure we don't need to get into debating it... but incase anyone felt up for it I decided to pour the fuel.
 
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Time to restart this thread now the year is almost over.

2007 Chase Statistics
Chases: 24
Busts: 5
Tornado Days: 5 (3/28, 4/23, 4/24, 5/6, 5/22)
Tornadoes: 17
Hail Days (>2 inch): 2 (6/21, 9/30)
Miles: 13,989
Miles/Chases: 583
Minutes Viewing Tornadoes: 128
Miles/Tornadoes: 673
Min Viewing Torn/Chase: 5.3
Tornadoes by State: KS 14, OK 3
Tornado success ratio (tornado days / chases): 21%
Success ratio (Was it worth chasing?): 75%
Season Rating Overall (1-worst 10-best): 9/10

The excellent early season chases made the year for me. The way it started I thought 2007 would top 2004 but most of May and June was a dud.
 
Safe to say I won't be chasing anything convective in the next 48 hours, so I think I'll finally hash out my stats for the year...

2007 STORM CHASE STATS
Chases: 57 (27 of which are 'spotter', 'media', 'project chases' in which I wasn't going after tornadoes)
Chases for Tornadoes: 30
Tornado Days: 12 [2/23(1), 4/13(1), 4/21(4), 4/23(1), 4/24(3), 5/3(1), 5/5(6), 5/22(1), 5/23(2), 5/31(2), 6/6(1), 6/7(1)]
Tornadoes: 24
Tornado Average: 40% (counting only the 30 tornado-goal chases)
Miles: 32,375
States Chased: 14 (CO, NM, AZ, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WI, IL, MN)

2007 STORM CHASE RECORDS
1. The 32,375 miles eclipses my previous high of over 18,000 miles chased in a single season. The official number of 32,375 does NOT include much of my time in Arizona in which I went back-and-forth twice, nor does it include several chases during my lightning project which would've sent my total to nearly 40,000 miles.

2. The 24 tornadoes ranks second behind 2004's 28, but due to poor visibility, nighttime tornadoes, or being badly out of position, was one of my worst years for photography and video for tornadoes. I managed to capture "proof" of about 2/3 of what I saw.

3. It was my best pre-May season date where I saw a total of 10 tornadoes on 5 of 9 chase days.

4. February 23 was my earliest tornado ever and has now given me tornadoes in 8 of 12 months (Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan).

5. My 57 total chases destroys the 30 I did in 2006.

6. My best year for lightning photography as I nailed nearly 400 photos which had at least one strike. Many of those photos I cannot release until after the lightning project concludes.

7. I nailed tornadoes on 5 chases in-a-row [4/13(1), 4/21(4), 4/23(1), 4/24(3), 5/3(1)] for the first time in my career. Prior to that, I did a 3-in-a-row back in 2005.

8. The hail I witnessed on 6/7 in Wisconsin was the BIGGEST hail I had ever seen, easily beating out the 5/5 Seminole hailstorm in 2006. Hail measured just shy of 5 inches in diameter.

9. During my Arizona lightning trip, I shot lightning on a storm for three hours and pulled 72 shots with at least one bolt. By far, the most I had ever shot on one single storm.

10. I chased in North Dakota and Montana for the first time this season, both states I ended up in three times each by season's end. I also chased in Arizona for the first time this season and was there twice.

Overall, this was my busiest season to date. It ranks just shy of 2004, but certainly was close in terms of overall ranking.
 
2007 Chase Statistics
Chases: 47
Busts: who knows
Tornado Days: 3 (3/28, 5/22, 8/8)
Tornadoes: 5
Hail Days (>2 inch): probably zero
Miles: right around 22,000(I have them all saved for gas/tax reasons, but just don't feel motivated enough to add up the 47 numbers)
Miles/Chases: around 470
Minutes Viewing Tornadoes: not nearly enough
Miles/Tornadoes: 4400 (LOL, considering 1 was May 22 viewed through rain...could just see it well enough to know it was there...I got ahead of things for structure at the worst possible time as I was just on the highway south of Hill City 5 minutes before it happened......another 1 of my whopping 5 was the 10 second tornado August 8....and the other three at night on March 28.....in other words 22,000 miles for no good tornado video)
Tornadoes by State: KS 1, MO 1, NE 3(not sure if the two wedges next to each other merged into the one or not....plus the later smaller one)
Tornado success ratio (tornado days / chases): I can't call any of what I did in 2007 a success, lol. 06 and now 07 officially have me scared on my "ability".
Success ratio (Was it worth chasing?): no idea.....no it exceedingly was not worth chasing
Season Rating Overall (1-worst 10-best): 0.5/10(sorry I'm still highly annoyed after the last two years...must have 90 chases between the two for horribly little...seeing the little towns and the people just doesn't do it for me I guess)

Favorite chase(or chases) of the year:
June 16 ne WY http://www.extremeinstability.com/07-6-16.htm I never saw a storm worth a darn, but for whatever reason, the unlikely lightning right around Devil's Tower gave me my happiest point in the year. I was giddy as they started to pop away at twilight. I chase for the moments you can't believe what is happening, and you have to cover your mouth with your hand as you yell. It was one of them, that's for sure. It was an awesome cg barrage coming from completely crap storms, most bolts landing just south of me out of frame. OTHERS just barely missing the tower itself.

2007 sparked a new chasing interest for me, and that is trying to get very close CG's on a still image with a ultra-wide angle lens(probably a whole lot easier to get close looking shots with some level of zoom....but not nearly as fun). I guess when the storms suck so bad, other aspects have to come up. In 2008 I hope to spend more effort on local lightning events, and hopefully just not chase as much in general, trying to only chase the better setups instead of most every setup(I never am able to make that happen though).

Here are a few of those...didn't get many.

July 15 Thunder was around 1 second later.
August 6 That was horribly close at 10mm. Flash freezing rain drops in the air. It was actually quick draw'd at 800ISO...only catching the last fraction of a second of the bolt. Thunder was almost instantaneous. It was about 1 block away.
September 29 So I missed the bolt. It was close and bright, just off to my right in the trees. Cool how it lit up the white caps though.
October 4 Crop from a very close bolt shot from my apartment. Hit about 2 blocks away. That scared the crap out of me as for over an hour I had not even seen a bolt, just a few flashes. Thunder was right on top of that one too.
Just a favorite lightning shot from the year.

Now that I think about it, lightning was by far the most enjoyable part of the year for me. That's what I look forward to most for 2008 at the moment, being able to play with close bolts again. I guess part of me has given up seeing really cool storms again, and realizes this could be really fun anyway.
 
2007 wasn't a very chase-friendly year for me seeing as how opportunities never coincided with my schedule. In my line of work, I can hardly afford to take any time off. Now that I'm a manager '08 might be even trickier. We did take a vacation and got on a few beasts on 5-5, but couldn't score.

Stats:

Chases: 8
High risk chases: 2
Local chases: 4
Tornadoes: 0 :-(
Largest Hail: OK panhandle, Golf ball +
Lightning outings: 14 (approx. 250 total photos)

We did manage to witness quite a few rotating wall clouds, some with rapid motion, but were just unlucky enough to have it produce.

Here are some of my favorite shots from '07:

Lightning with snow in foreground

Spring lightning

Chariton, IA rotating wall cloud (3-31)

Mississippi river lightning

Local high risk "bust" lightning (6-7)

Extremely electric storm over I-88

Shelf

Sherwood, Iowa rotating wall cloud/funnels (9-30)

Another extremely electric storm, 45s exposure

I'll be picking up the Canon HV20 in a few weeks so hopefully I will be taking better video next year. I also really need to buckle down and learn how to process my images a little better. We are extremely overdue for our next tornado, so hopefully '08 is a little friendlier.
 
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Updated to current:

CHASES: 19
MILES: 10,472
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: 551 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 7
TORNADOES: 15
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in 2.7
STATES CHASED: KS,MO,OK,SD,TX
 
Well, I didn't keep track of statistics this year as well as I would have liked. I guess that's a good New Years resolution. So I'm going to try off the top of my head.

CHASE days: 9
MILES: ~?
TORNADO DAYS: 4
TORNADOES: 11(3 on March 28th, 1 on April 12th, 2 on April 21st, 5 on May 4th)
STATES CHASED: KS,OK,NE,TX
TORNADO STATES: KS, TX

Summary:
Started the year off with a bust on Feb 24th. I had some buddies with me and we messed around in OKC for too long, left late, and missed the tornado.
3-28: Chased with Tyler Costantini and Chris Wilburn. Saw my first tornado near the town of Hedley, and saw 2 more as we were repositioning. Probably missed a few this day due to bad contrast and nightfall. Saw some really cool funnels out of the side of the updraft as well as "anvil zit" lightning. it was very eerie.
4-11: Wasn't a tornado chasing day, but we wanted to take a shot at lightning photography, so we went to the Childress area. Met Tony on a dark side road. They stayed in Wichita Falls, we went to Decatur(My Moms).
4-12: Chased with my partner Randy Rhea. Missed the Seymour tornado as we were too far East. Caught the line just west of Decatur. Got chased to Denton, we screamed East, to drop south in front of the weird Sup that was not really imbedded, but within the line. Intercepted a "cell" just East of Lake Ray Hubbard. Called in a bowl-shaped lowering with powerflashes. Confirmed damage to barns and a fence. Pretty disappointing for a High Risk. But I'll take what I can get.
4-21: Chased with Joey, Russel Parsons, and Chris Wilburn. Got on a good looking storm near Hereford, couldn't produce. Headed north to 40 to see if we could catch another storm. I was taking pictures out the window of a weird cloud structure, and later that night, when looking over the pictures, saw what seemed to be a tornado in a rain curtain. When we got to 40, we headed East, everyone lost Radar data, drove threw some small hail, then a tornado hit us. It was weak. once we got the hell out of there, i took a picture looking back
IMG_3789.jpg


Then we regained our composure, Caught an LP cell, drove home in a squall line.
5-4:Waited around in SC KS. Got gas in Greensburg. Went East to Medicine Lodge for Wifi, turned our asses around when we saw the Greensurg cell get cookin. Got our first glimpse at the Tornado(es) just N of Coldwater. Took pictures as we mosey'd N on 183. Didn't know the town took a direct hit, but knew there would be damage so we tried to take a clay road around town. Got stuck. Got unstuck. Decided not to go to Greensburg thinking that we would only hamper rescue efforts. I regret that decision EVERY DAY and will probably regret it every day for as long as I live. The next day at work, I found out about the town being completely destroyed.
5-6: local chase. not looking for naders. Got my best lightning shot ever.(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/funky_mike/mike005.jpg)
5-29: Chased with Tyler Costantini, and his nephew. Messed around all day. I was in a goofy mood and I think I pissed Tyler off by being goofy all day. Finally got on a storm late in the evening out in BFE in the OK panhandle. Good lightning, decent rotation for about 10 minutes. Then we came home.
6-6: Met up with Bart Comstock and Chris Wilburn in NE. Targeted Broken Bow. later met up with Eric Flescher. Saw really nice structure, repositioned, more good structure. Saw a horse-shoe vortex on top of a roll cloud. that was cool. They all got the last 2 rooms at a hotel in Grand Island, i went down the street. Randy Hicks and Lisa stayed with me.
6-7: Parted ways with everyone in the morning and I headed home. Hoped for a storm to go up in KS, but didn't happen. Got home, took some buddys on a local chase, hoped for a storm to go up west of Henrietta, OK. Got free root beer floats at sonic. went to the Skatepark and did some tricks on the fruitboots. No storms. Did see a ton of good lookin girls at WalMart with goofy looking guys. which gives me some hope
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No real chases since June. Depressing. Come on Spring!!!
 
Number of Chases: MANY!
Number of Tornadoes witnessed: 14
Strongest tornado witnessed: Greensburg EF5
Tornado Days: 3/28, 4/21, 4/24, 5/4 and 5/5
Note! I was on a roll with witnessing tornados on all my chases from 4/21 through 5/5 which was the first time ever that I had such success!
Number of miles driven: WAY TO MANY! :p
Largest Hail witnessed: 4.00" (07/16/07, Iowa) Yes it is amazing I actually saw severe weather in Iowa!:p
Strongest Wind Gust: 70+mph
Overall Rating: Best year ever!
Chase States: NE, IA, KS, OK, and TX
Best storm structure witnessed: 05/22/07, Trego and Gove Counties KS. Incredible LP supercells!

Also I would like to thank the following people for taking their time to help me with nowcasting, thanks guys!!:

1. Fabian Guerra
2. Jack Kertzie
3. Bob Schafer
4. Scott Weber
5. Josh Richardson
6. Steve Marshall
7. Terry Kollmeyer
8. Ian Leonard
9. Jason Bechler
[FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]10. Bryce Kintigh
[/FONT]
 

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Chases: 8
Miles: 1106
Ang. Miles per chase: 30-250
Tornadoes: 0
Tornado Days: n/a
Largest Hail: 0.50in
Bust: 10/18/07
States: MS/AL
Season Rating Overall: 6 - better then 2005 but worse then 2006
SLGT risk: 5
MDT risk: 2
HIGH risk: 0

i was let down for the most part about 2007...there were several chases i wanted to be on, but didnt get a chance to be on...

most all of the chases this year have been on days with a modest severe weather threat...the exceptions being 2/24/07 and 10/18/07, both of which were moderate risk days...

the severe weather season for MS this year in general hasnt been too exciting...there have been a few events, but generally MS has been shut down...

i was really hoping for a good november set-up, but one never came through...all the other severe weather events have been too far south, and too minimal a risk to warrant going down there, so i havent even tried messing with em...

there were a few decent chases though that were pretty intense...ones that come to mind are 4/25/07 and i think it was 5/12/07...
 
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