Austin Ivey
EF3
The 0z ETA takes Ivan into New Orleans:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ta_500_084m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ta_500_084m.gif
2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)
- Thread starter Chris Sokol
- Start date
Dan Robinson
Despite the westward jog, looks like the models and the NHC are holding fast for the panhandle.
Studying the map, I'd be worried about any track west of Biloxi. East of there, looks like the coastal road network is decent enough to make target adjustments. My only concern is finding parking garages in those small towns, if landfall is Cat 4, it's going to be hairy for sure. Any trend toward New Orleans will have me staying home for this one - otherwise I'll be on the road Monday for Fort Walton Beach/Panama City.
On a somewhat side note, is there another term for 'parking garage' in the south? For instance, I've heard them called 'parking ramps' in the midwest. I'm going to make some calls to the towns and ask about locations of parking garages, and want to make sure I use the right term for the area.
Studying the map, I'd be worried about any track west of Biloxi. East of there, looks like the coastal road network is decent enough to make target adjustments. My only concern is finding parking garages in those small towns, if landfall is Cat 4, it's going to be hairy for sure. Any trend toward New Orleans will have me staying home for this one - otherwise I'll be on the road Monday for Fort Walton Beach/Panama City.
On a somewhat side note, is there another term for 'parking garage' in the south? For instance, I've heard them called 'parking ramps' in the midwest. I'm going to make some calls to the towns and ask about locations of parking garages, and want to make sure I use the right term for the area.
David Wolfson
EF5
This is a really interesting page IMO: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
It suggests that right now the currently projected path of Ivan through the gulf yields about the maximum sea surface potential energy and well supports Cat 4 or Cat 5 until about 100 miles of the coast. A speedy traverse of the coastal waters would maximize the storm's intensity.
AFA shear is concerned, there doesn't seem to be much in the offing.
It suggests that right now the currently projected path of Ivan through the gulf yields about the maximum sea surface potential energy and well supports Cat 4 or Cat 5 until about 100 miles of the coast. A speedy traverse of the coastal waters would maximize the storm's intensity.
AFA shear is concerned, there doesn't seem to be much in the offing.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
The next couple of vortex messages should be interesting. The last one was at minimal Cat 5, and it took that reading in the middle of an reorganization. The outer eyewall has been contracting for the past couple of hours. I'm curious how low this baby's pressure is going to get.
Also, looking at the probability spread, it appears the NHC has a very low confidence of just where in their "cone" the storm will land:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASP...ml/130236.shtml?
BTW -- the AVN model seems to have storms lined up like planes at Ohara over the next week. It's just a model, of course, but yeesh...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation
Also, looking at the probability spread, it appears the NHC has a very low confidence of just where in their "cone" the storm will land:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASP...ml/130236.shtml?
BTW -- the AVN model seems to have storms lined up like planes at Ohara over the next week. It's just a model, of course, but yeesh...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation
Zach Bailey
EF2
Heh - this is funny to me. I'm from Atlanta, and I consider west virginia "the south" as well. But anyways, no, parking garage is pretty standard in the "south", I've also heard them called parking decks but I think you'll be understood fine if you use the term parking garage. :wink:
Morgan Palmer
EF5
While it appeared an eyewall recycle is nearing completion, the pressure at around 340Z was at 919mb... the remarks in the vortex message said eye getting better defined with lightning in all quads.
It looks to me like this is going to run the gauntlet... between the Yuc and Cuba. I know some folks are casually mentioning New Orleans... but that would be (if it came in even as a minimal 4) perhaps the worst catastrophe in American history, because of the city's position relative to Lake Ponchartrain.
Anyway, here's a not so good looking 84hr model plot. Worst case, I suppose.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...sure&hour=084hr
mp
It looks to me like this is going to run the gauntlet... between the Yuc and Cuba. I know some folks are casually mentioning New Orleans... but that would be (if it came in even as a minimal 4) perhaps the worst catastrophe in American history, because of the city's position relative to Lake Ponchartrain.
Anyway, here's a not so good looking 84hr model plot. Worst case, I suppose.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...sure&hour=084hr
mp
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'm starting to get more worried for New Orleans... the NOGAPS shows Ivan hitting New Orleans dead-on, the 0z CMC has it hitting New Orleans, the ETA hits New Orleans dead-on, and the UKMET shows Ivan JUST missing New Orleans (a westward shift of 100 miles would show Ivan having a signficant impact on New Orleans)... Even an if Ivan missed New Orleans to the east, it could still be very bad since the easterly then northerly winds could cause the Lake to flood into New Orleans... In fact, the only global model that doesn't show Ivan affecting New ORleans is the GFS, which has been consistently too far right/east with Ivan (remember the multi-run forecasts from the GFS which had Ivan over the Bahamas and missing FL to the east?).
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
NOGAPS has also shifted to a New Orleans landfall. I can see what the NHC has a low confidence in their forecast...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP/N...k.084.namer.gif
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP/N...k.084.namer.gif
Glenn Rivers
EF1
The world throgh Ivan's eye
Looking at the world through Ivan’s eye…How to get a visa in the USA:
Option # 1…Turn N soon and cross Cuba, Aim towards E part of FL Panhandle.
-Have to cross Cuba, endure several hours of aerodynamically rough land :sad5:
-slightly cooler water in the E gulf, possible upwelling from Frances :sad7:
-high mid-tropospheric (500 mb) RH over the NE Gulf, FL, and GA….ummmm …moist air to entrain:
Option # 2…Keep more W, sneak into Gulf between Cuba and Yucatan, aim for more western target e.g. New Orleans.
-get into Gulf with little drag from Cuba and Yucatan :lol:
-slightly warmer water in the western Gulf
-lots of dry mid tropospheric air over LA,TX ..dry air entrainment… :sad5:
Something in between?
Decisions, decisions…What is a poor boy to do? :?
Looking at the world through Ivan’s eye…How to get a visa in the USA:
Option # 1…Turn N soon and cross Cuba, Aim towards E part of FL Panhandle.
-Have to cross Cuba, endure several hours of aerodynamically rough land :sad5:
-slightly cooler water in the E gulf, possible upwelling from Frances :sad7:
-high mid-tropospheric (500 mb) RH over the NE Gulf, FL, and GA….ummmm …moist air to entrain:
Option # 2…Keep more W, sneak into Gulf between Cuba and Yucatan, aim for more western target e.g. New Orleans.
-get into Gulf with little drag from Cuba and Yucatan :lol:
-slightly warmer water in the western Gulf
-lots of dry mid tropospheric air over LA,TX ..dry air entrainment… :sad5:
Something in between?
Decisions, decisions…What is a poor boy to do? :?
Jeff Snyder
EF5
The model trend continues... the 6z early runs are coming in, and showing again a westward shift in forecast track. Even the previously-right GFS has shift westward, now showing landfall between Panama City and Pensacola. The GFDL now brings Ivan to near Mobile, AL, as well, which is a ~75mile shift to the west from the 18zz run. The AM AFD from New Orleans NWSFO does give a few insights into the latest thinking regarding Ivan's forecast path/intensity. If only more offices would say more than "Refer to TPC for more specifics".. Certainly offices have their own opinions on what Ivan may do...
Geoff Boyle
The NHC has reported this morning that Ivan is moving towards the panhandle. From what I understand, right now they don't think New Orleans will suffer a direct hit.
Personally, I think this is the track were going to see Ivan follow. Does anyone know about the reponse about this out of New Orleans?
Personally, I think this is the track were going to see Ivan follow. Does anyone know about the reponse about this out of New Orleans?
Amos Magliocco
EF5
Some friends were talking this morning about language in the NHC discussion, specifically last night's and this passage:
"IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT."
No criticism whatsoever here, but I'm curious about the importance of maintaining continuity with previous forcasts. I'm guessing (entirely) that this is a forecasting technique along the lines of blending model output to arrive at a forecaster-based solution. What I mean is that if you blend previous forecasts with your own for that day, then you have, in a sense, brought to bear all previous forecasts (and their supporting model data) and are not relying strictly on one set of runs to the neglect of all the output that has come before.
If that is not the case, then I would think you'd toss out the previous forecasts, especially with a defiant system like Ivan, and go with the new idea.
Anybody have a clearer understanding of this?
"IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT."
No criticism whatsoever here, but I'm curious about the importance of maintaining continuity with previous forcasts. I'm guessing (entirely) that this is a forecasting technique along the lines of blending model output to arrive at a forecaster-based solution. What I mean is that if you blend previous forecasts with your own for that day, then you have, in a sense, brought to bear all previous forecasts (and their supporting model data) and are not relying strictly on one set of runs to the neglect of all the output that has come before.
If that is not the case, then I would think you'd toss out the previous forecasts, especially with a defiant system like Ivan, and go with the new idea.
Anybody have a clearer understanding of this?
Glen Romine
EF5
I think your intuition here is good - but the burden borne by these forecasters is enormous. Emergency managers all along the Gulf Coast are hanging by the latest words from NHC - with millions of people awaiting the latest word from the EMs. The ballpark cost per mile of coastline evacuated is $1 million, so you can see there are considerable financial costs at stake as well if the forecast were to fluctuate over large regions of the coastline. So, I think adjustments are conservative to avoid causing undue ripples in the system. In this case - the forecaster turned out to make a good decision not to adjust heavily left, as this morning's 11 am discussion suggests a more easterly track again - limiting the amount of adjustment needed to the latest forecast track.
Glen
Mark Plate
The new 12Z GFS continues its trend of shifting further and further west...and it remains the easternmost model. Anywhere from the far WRN FL panhandle to New Orleans look to be at risk now, but if the western trend continues, then closer to New Orleans would be better. Note the strike probabilities on the latest advisory were highest in SE LA.
Paul Redmond
Looks like my questions and prospects of a landfall west of alabama are not so far fetched anymore. I have been questioning the projected northeast track all along, in the absence of any strong high pressure system near the gulf. The only thing blocking a westward track is a weak occluded front, with inbedded low level weaknesses with a westerly track. If I was in Louisianna or even northeast texas I would be nervous now.
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