2/9/2009 FCST: KS/NE/IA

[Dick McGowan]

The winds here in Olathe were around 50 mph, I was quite disappointed.

Per the latest RUC and NAM, it doesn't look good at all for tornadoes...maybe little puffy clouds. I'm considering sitting this one out, but I have the day off and wouldn't want to miss those little puffy clouds.

Bust target: Corning, Iowa

 

[ABlaser]

I'm beginning to like the area around topeka/manhattan for mid-afternoon low-topped cells to initiate. think 1 or 2 tors are possible in the first 1-2 hours of initiation before the shear works on the updrafts. upper low near GLD appears to be moving ENE, with better 500mb SW wind moving into central kansas.

 

[jshields]

This is an interesting setup. Surface features respond to mid/upper level forcing... so that being said.... warm front convergence will be moving rapidly north during the day. Current extrapolation of the 400mb PV anomaly and water vapor dry anomaly (which at 1015z was already across the TX Panhandle) suggest that by ~ 18z this feature will be at or just north of OMA. This thing is moving FAST... therefore surface is going to look different hour by hour. Surface dry advection from dry intrusion influences will likely be impacting OMA area by 18-20z (I think the NAM is under doing the dry advection when compared against the GFS and 09z RUC).... The 09z RUC has the best surface frontogenesis/convergence and theta-E ridge nosing up toward NW Iowa by 21z close to where the model has snow cover (how far south does snow pack extend?). Watch out for that dry intrusion... it's very easy to get caught too far south on a day like today. I honestly don't like waves moving this fast. I wouldn't want to play anything along the dry intrusion convergence/pacific cold front... too much dry entrainment for my liking. Ideally, I'd like to be as close as possible to the surface low/vorticity center which will be farther northwest near the SD/NE border around Winner to Valentine... but for this event it will be too cool/stable with too much stratus in that area.. after all it is Feb 9th! I doubt there will be low-topped tornadoes today.

so far mike has it hit directly on the head, the latest day one outlook talks about the drying and veering winds blasting through kansas already limiting the potential. i'm liking this less and less, oh yeah it is february though!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

If you want to believe the RUC nothing will fire this afternoon, however suprisingly OAX has been pretty strong with their Wording in both the HWO as well as a short term fcst issued a little bit ago mentioning svr development between 1 and 4. Personally I don't know what to think, the Dry Slot worked through a little quicker than I had anticipated with Omaha already clearing out, the veered winds aren't doing the dews any favors, but 45 seems to be common across most of SE NE. Steep lapse rates are quickly working into the area, and mesoanalysis has a poket of -25 h5 temps progged to spread across the area this afternoon. I'm not even remotely confident in seeing anything and normally I wouldn't even give this setup a second look, however even the slightest potential at seeing NE's first Feb. tube is enough for me to give things a second look...

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well, I started north out of SGF, and made it into the clear slot. Tds are only in the high 40's, although not horrible for February, but not good enough for me. I have doubled back home.If this was going to happen, it we should have already had cell initiation across NE Kansas.I still think we may see some initiation happen, it will likely only be marginal. Tomorrow is a much better bet and the same distance drive for me.The dy slot has pushed through like a rocket, and there isn't enough variance between the boundary at the surface. I'm out on this one...

 

[Brad Nelson]

Good call to head home Matt. Dewpoints are really falling off where they have cleared out now and the surface winds are turning more south-southwest. It looks like if anythings going to go its directly out ahead of the surface low moving into northeast NE and dewp's here are only in the low to mid 40's. The winds from ONL down to BVN are still southeast though. Nothing great but it was still worth the look today and nice to get excited about something in February this far north!

 

[jshields]

here in omaha the temps have risen to almost 60, but the dewpts have fallen below 40 (at my home weather station). winds are gusting out of the south to almost 50 mph! what a shame since we got the clearing and we reached what was forecast to be the convective temp of 56 today. if only the low level moisture could have stuck around longer. well i guess its back to looking at the next couple of storm systems that could bring snow here next weekend!

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

The only moisture out here that didn't get sucked up was my tears. We went to Spencer before hitting McDonald's and giving up.

That low deepened at an incredible rate and began literally vacuuming pretty much the whole of the Central Plains as the necessarily windy result of said deepening, and didn't seem like it moved as eastward as originally progged. I had hopes in the "clear area" of the comma when the sun began warming the ground (snowless virtually in W/SW IA) but as the time went from 19 to 20 to 21z, the roof caved in on the dewpoints. By the time I saw KDMX fall from around 60/49 to around 60/45 between 2 and 3 PM's mesoanalysis station reports, we sounded the official death knell. Interestingly enough, this is my first true "blue sky bust," despite the many times I ventured out in my freshman year last year to see magnificent storms but rain-wrapped or, in most cases, no tornadoes.

It's February, the winds didn't march up the moisture, and at least we got a breath of anticipatory excitement that we will likely miss until at least mid-March. Today is dead, though, and the onset of evening will cement the current rainy garbage spanning W IA to no more than rainy garbage. That being said, just like the Arizona Cardinals, we're happy we simply got the opportunity for a (way outside) chance at a historically rare grab.

EDIT: If this is more in line with a report than a current status of the situation here in Iowa, please move it to the appropriate thread when it arises. Seems either-or for me, and if so, I apologize for any bending of the rules.