2/25/07 NOW FL/GA

Moist line coming onshore now, SVR warning Lafayette County FL, sparsely populated area, looks like a long night ahead.
 
Nice small line along tail end of the front forming on the Central FL/GA border. Surprisingly the mesoanalysis page at SPC is showing 500-1000 J/kg CAPE, but flow remains parallel to the front limiting forcing. LIs are decent @ -2 to -3. SFC obs show Tds in the mid-60s now with good overall temps. Looks like this will be a nocturnal show for those of us in Jax with only 2 hrs daylight left.
 
Storms near and south of Lafayette county appear very unorganized even though the lead cell has shown a left splitting tendancy and is SVR warned. CAPE values are low and daytime heating is just about done. The storms are already showing signs of weakening. While an isolated wind gust or hail report is possible, I really think this event is not going to happen. Just some non-severe thunderstorms with heavy rain.

But we shall see. It won't take too much to make these storms just over the severe limits. I just see several significant obstacles.
 
I agree, Howard, totally. I've been concerned about the lack convergence today and that said everything is now looking increasingly MCS (near Tampa) and squall (C FL/GA border). The left-splitting cell appears to be due to a mesoscale event of some kind since nothing really favors a left split on sfc, though there's a hint of a small boundary (from what I have no idea since the satellite is masked in stratus). I expect it will be undercut by the squall.
 
The line west of Tampa has some isolated severe cells in it but it's probably not an MCS. It doesn't have the organization or sustained linear severe convection to it that you would usually see. That said, it's still enough to block some moisture feed into the north Florida storms. That may be another factor.

As far as the left splitting storm goes...it looked like a mini-supercell of sorts and it may have been along or just north of a pseudo-warm front. I have not looked, but this could be a cause.
 
Bah...It's a mess. And there's no available energy for the storms to work with. Bummer too...I've got severe SDS especially since last year.

Looks like a line of embeddeds with the usual plan for cells to track AROUND Jax. Here's to dreaming ;).
 
Tornado warning just expired just to the NW of Savannah, GA. Nice TOR signature on SRV moved across and I wouln't be surprised to see some tornado reports out of there. Other near-tornadic storms are NE toward Beaufort, SC and SW of Savannah. Might be fun to watch while keeping an eye on North Florida.

BTW...forecast for Albany is a few inches of snow. TRW not in sight for a couple of more months. Talk about SDS.
 
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