2/21 Forecast:Southern Cal

Brian Press

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

Looks like another round for us here in So Cal. Looks like late tonight into Monday Morning should be pretty interesting. Then again monday Afternoon into the evening.
 
I'll have my eye out, and the cams charged for anything that happens around the Dana Point / Laguna area.
 
The following just in from the spc....
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES.

Tonight and Monday afternoon look good. Get your gear ready!
 
http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039

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SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion concerning the threat of mini supercells this morning. So far light rain here with some nice looking cells ofshore.
 
is that 7 miles south around coto de casa? or coastal?
meso discussion 190 has a defined arrow but cant decide to go east - Im in laguna niguel - heading out right now
 
AT 812 AM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FOUNTAIN VALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR..
FOUNTAIN VALLEY BY 815 AM PST
WESTMINSTER BY 820 AM PST
 
If I were down there I'd probably go down to the shore in Orange or San Diego County and wait for cells to come to me over the next few hours. The 12z sounding for NKX shows favorable shear for supercells but not a lot of instability. Also it looks very moist through the entire troposhere....not surprised to see the cells buried in a bunch of rain and gunge.

Another thing to look out for is the vort center approaching Pt Conception this afternoon....could see some hail and/or waterspouts/funnel clouds further NW towards Vandenberg AFB and Santa Barbara as this thing makes it onshore. Might also see some hail/funnel clouds in the San Joaquin Valley if we get some decent clearing. I'm here in the San Joaquin Valley (about 5 hrs north of LAX) on vacation this week....may head out this afternoon if things look good.

An aside to some who have been posting here....please take a moment to look at the "Target Area" thread going on right now in the Stormtrack site discussion board. Thanks.
 
Im currently located at the very southern end of Orange County at the coast and will be ready to move when needed. Its clearing now so maybe we can get a little heat to boost development. Shear looks nice but instability can use a boost.
 
This is a reminder to make sure all posts comply with the rules for posting in this forum... Warnings, etc, are NOT suitable for FORECAST threads, per the rules available at http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039 (as Amos posted)... Many of the moderators were in Denver for the weekend, which precluded us (me at least) from checking this too often. All further non-compliant posts will be removed...

Originally posted by StormTrack Target Area forum rules
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