2/16 - 2/17/2006 - WIND EVENT: GREAT LAKES / NORTHEAST

[Robert Dewey]

I know there are a few wind buffs here...

Looks like a classic setup for a widespread damaging wind event following the cold frontal passage. Initially, I suspect a band of showers, possibly a few isolated thunderstorms, will be present along the cold front in southern MI... These may be able to bring down +60MPH wind gusts...

The setup looks VERY favorable for widespread non-convective damaging winds after the initial convective line. Right behind the front, 6 hour pressure rise is on the order of 25-30MB, with very intense CAA and associated subsidence. As theta-e crashes into the ground, mixing heights will rapidly rise to 3-4K FT, tapping well into the +55KNT low level jet. The NAM develops a nice jet streak of nearly 70KNTS at 850MB over Port Huron between 09Z and 12Z tomorrow morning... This is just 250-500FT above the top of the mixing layer - definitely something to think about.

BUFKIT profiles for DTX and surrounding areas show a solid 55-60KNTS at the top of the mixing layer for a period of 2-4 hours (depending on which station - it's longer the further east you are)...

Therefore, I believe frequent gusts in the 60MPH to 70MPH range are quite likely from southeastern MI, northern OH, spreading into PA and NY tomorrow morning.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The threat in southeastern MI seems to have diminished somewhat... The models have been getting slightly weaker with each run... Jet max still forecast to slide over the region around 09Z, but not nearly as strong (55KNTS versus 65KNTS). I think frequent gusts to around 55-60MPH will probably be more factual.

Further east, still looks like +70MPH winds for northeast OH, PA, and NY.

 

[B Ozanne]

I just cancelled a trip to Mount Washington. Temps are supposed to drop to -30 by Sunday morning with winds sustained over 115mph. I'll enjoy watching all this unfold from the comfort of home, not the shivering terror inside a tent.

 

[HAltschule]

I just returned from a pretty intense Storm Chase...in FEBRUARY!! For a full Chase Log, amazing wind reports and very cool pictures (a shelf cloud, Moderate sleet and snow in the storm core) please take a look at my blog:

http://weatherexpert.blogspot.com/

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by HAltschule
I just returned from a pretty intense Storm Chase...in FEBRUARY!! For a full Chase Log, amazing wind reports and very cool pictures (a shelf cloud, Moderate sleet and snow in the storm core) please take a look at my blog:

http://weatherexpert.blogspot.com/

Wow, those are some impressive photos - especially for it being February and that far north! I sure wish I could have seen something like that.

As for the wind event, my station is down, but I'd have to estimate that things topped out around 50MPH, maybe 55MPH tops a few hours after FROPA.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by rdewey
As for the wind event, my station is down, but I'd have to estimate that things topped out around 50MPH, maybe 55MPH tops a few hours after FROPA.

How does it compare to other wind events this winter?

I recorded a peak gust in CT at 38mph and 51mph in VT. Both beat the big wind events back in January. 51mph at my VT station is an all time record for that station. Its only a 14 month climate record, but still.

Things are just starting to rip on Mount Washington. Sustained at 115mph right now and gusting to 136mph.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by B Ozanne+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(B Ozanne)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

As for the wind event, my station is down, but I'd have to estimate that things topped out around 50MPH, maybe 55MPH tops a few hours after FROPA.

How does it compare to other wind events this winter?[/b]

This has been our biggest wind event since November. In November, we had 3 events that topped out above 60MPH, with one event getting close to 70-80MPH. That did quite a bit of damage in our neighborhood, with many trees downed.

We have had more significant (+55MPH) synoptic wind events in the past 4 months than we have had in the past 4 years combined, at least at my specific location.