Robert Dewey
EF5
I know there are a few wind buffs here...
Looks like a classic setup for a widespread damaging wind event following the cold frontal passage. Initially, I suspect a band of showers, possibly a few isolated thunderstorms, will be present along the cold front in southern MI... These may be able to bring down +60MPH wind gusts...
The setup looks VERY favorable for widespread non-convective damaging winds after the initial convective line. Right behind the front, 6 hour pressure rise is on the order of 25-30MB, with very intense CAA and associated subsidence. As theta-e crashes into the ground, mixing heights will rapidly rise to 3-4K FT, tapping well into the +55KNT low level jet. The NAM develops a nice jet streak of nearly 70KNTS at 850MB over Port Huron between 09Z and 12Z tomorrow morning... This is just 250-500FT above the top of the mixing layer - definitely something to think about.
BUFKIT profiles for DTX and surrounding areas show a solid 55-60KNTS at the top of the mixing layer for a period of 2-4 hours (depending on which station - it's longer the further east you are)...
Therefore, I believe frequent gusts in the 60MPH to 70MPH range are quite likely from southeastern MI, northern OH, spreading into PA and NY tomorrow morning.
Looks like a classic setup for a widespread damaging wind event following the cold frontal passage. Initially, I suspect a band of showers, possibly a few isolated thunderstorms, will be present along the cold front in southern MI... These may be able to bring down +60MPH wind gusts...
The setup looks VERY favorable for widespread non-convective damaging winds after the initial convective line. Right behind the front, 6 hour pressure rise is on the order of 25-30MB, with very intense CAA and associated subsidence. As theta-e crashes into the ground, mixing heights will rapidly rise to 3-4K FT, tapping well into the +55KNT low level jet. The NAM develops a nice jet streak of nearly 70KNTS at 850MB over Port Huron between 09Z and 12Z tomorrow morning... This is just 250-500FT above the top of the mixing layer - definitely something to think about.
BUFKIT profiles for DTX and surrounding areas show a solid 55-60KNTS at the top of the mixing layer for a period of 2-4 hours (depending on which station - it's longer the further east you are)...
Therefore, I believe frequent gusts in the 60MPH to 70MPH range are quite likely from southeastern MI, northern OH, spreading into PA and NY tomorrow morning.