2/15/08-2/16/08 WINTER STORM FCST: OK/KS/MO/IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MI

[Jim Zandonai]

Looks like another significant Winter storm will be winding up this weekend..
Low pressure will get cranking over East Ok and NW AR and move NE toward Central IL and then continuing to deepen as it moves to the Northeast into Indiana and Michigan..The QPF looks pretty impressive. Depending the track North IL and East IA looks to receive more unwelcome snow and blowing snow possibly on Sunday night into monday. If this potential snow of several inches or more materializes we will close in our all time seasonal snowfall record which for RFD is 74.5 inches in 78-79.. Right now the season is in 3rd place with just under 60".

 

[Joel Wright]

Man, this winter is getting ridiculous! I like snow and even I'm beginning to get tired of it! LOL.

The track has been trending further and further northwest, so even at this point it's about impossible placing where the heavy snowband will end up. Complicating matters is the surprising lack of cold air initially available for this storm. Very unusual considering large amounts of arctic air in place 24-48hrs before the storm hits. However, most of it will be gone by the time the storm moves in Sunday.

At this point my gut feeling is that the heaviest snow will fall from eastern KS, up through IA, and into the NW 2/3 of WI. Areas just east of this across MO and IL, southeast WI will have a rain to snow scenario, which will be very challenging to forecast as far as snowfall. These areas may get a lot of rainfall before the transition takes place. Flooding may become a big concern for these eastern areas.

Topeka KS, to Des Moines IA, and up to Wausau WI is where I think the heaviest snow will occur...

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Wow... What a complex and crazy forecast.. Not to much to add to what Joel Said.. I want to believe that the heavier snow band will set up further south... The heaviest QPF axis just doesnt want to line up with the freezing temps... Certainly appears to be a powerful system that will bring large amounts of many precip types..

 

[Joel Wright]

As expected the northwest trend on the models continues. (Just 5 days ago this was progged to be an east-coast storm!). The morning runs take the bombing low from the southeast tip of KS, up to near Chi-town, and into MI. The 12z Euro takes the low even further northwest than this. Heavy snow still looks to fall in a Topeka-DSM-central WI line.

Another interesting factor will be very heavy rains falling over deep snowcover. Much of northern IL, eastern IA, and southern WI have anywhere from 6-16" of snow on the ground. Rivers are already running high and are jammed with thick ice. Obviously the ground is frozen too. In the cities, huge piles of crusty snow block storm drains, and ditches are full of snowdrifts. Models indicate the potential for 1-2" of rain on top of all of this. Could be a flooding situation for some folks.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

I would expect the heavier snow to be from IA to WI too with the Low so close to us here..I expect a good amount of Freezing rain or sleet which will make this mess here by Sunday A.M. then on top of that after colder air gets drawn in maybe 6" of snow..This has all the signs of being a big storm esp. with the amount of moisture available to it..

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I believe the grand slam for this event may end up being in NW lower Michigan..with the strong forecasted cyclone to go through followed by what may be a rather intense NW wind lake effect snow event. (Bufkit profiles look excellent)

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_81HR.gif

I will be in that area for the storm Sunday through Tuesday.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

2/15/08-2/17/08 WINTER STORM FCST: OK

Wow Im shocked no one has made a thread for this one.
Mods: edit as neccessary

Winter Storm is evolving attm across portions of central and western OK.
Right now a shallow layer of freezing to subfreezing temps are in place across central and western OK. An upper level low is moving across NM into the Texas trans pecos region and strengthening as it does so. Surface cyclogenesis will occur Sat across North Texas causing surface temps to slowly warm with isentropic upglide occurring just above the surface. This will result in widespread precip starting tonight across SW OK and spreading NE. Enough upper level instability is in place for a few elaveted storms to occur across SW and S. OK overnight with the possibility of large hail. With the large depth of cold air west of I-44, the WAA is not expected to make as much an impact on warming surface temp in that region, therefore, widespread icing is likely, esp with heavier cores. A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for areas along and west of I-44.
As cyclone deepens SAT night, winter storm will transistion away from ice event to snow event as upper level low moves NE through the state bringing in colder air aloft Sat night into Sun morning. On the back side of this deepening cyclone, a band of heavy wet snow is forecasted to develop in western OK spreading ENE with the movement of the upper low. Forecasted accumulations are between 4 and 6 inches from Elk City to Clinton to Watonga to Stillwater. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected along I-44 corridor.

This storm is rapidly evolving so stay tuned.

EDIT: OUN has expanded WINTER STORM WARNING for ALL of CENTRAL OK.

NOTE: This post was moved from a stand alone thread for OK to an all encompassing winter storm thread

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Latest Guidance shows this low continuing to get moved farther west yet again.. Looks like most of IL..will be facing a freezing rain/rain event rather then snow..which is fine by me..we have enough already. However IA into WI should be having a significant snow event with potential Blizzard conditions on Sunday.. The main concern for N.IL however is Flooding as Joel stated earlier esp where heavy snow pack is in place now.. Amounts of an inch or 2 of Rain is likely in the region causing a potential Flood problem in Flood prone areas..

Severe Thunderstorms seem to be confined to the Gulf states..

 

[Joel Wright]

Yeah, it looks like IL will have a big rain event. Except maybe the extreme northwest tip up by Galena, where they'll have more snow. Still looks like the heaviest snow will set up from Wichita KS, to Topeka KS, to Des Moines, and then up into central WI. Chicago won't get much snow at all from this storm. Maybe a wet inch on the tail-end of the storm tomorrow night.

1-2" of rain on top of all of this snow and frozen ground will not be good. There's going to be some major flooding around much of these areas in the next month or two.

 

[David Draun]

It definitely looks like the Chicago area will see little to no snow instead of the 6-9 inches that was forecasted, especially to the west. I think tomorrow's high of 38 degrees is a bit underdone given the strong WAA with this system. I think the Chicago Metro will see an area of heavy rain with emedded thunderstorms after the freezing rain comes to an end during the early morning on Sunday. Then in the afternoon precip will diminish to scattered showers as the dry-slot punches in. Even the KLOT AFD has backed off of a snow forecast, and is already thinking ahead to what could be an active Spring around here.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION NEARBY. IF THIS ACTIVE LA NINA-ISH PATTERN KEEPS UP
FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS THEN ITS GOING TO BE A VERY BUSY SEVERE
WEATHER SEASON.

 

[Wayne Hlinicky]

Thunder Ice going on in southeastern Logan County in Oklahoma. Slowly changing over to cold rain.

 

[cstrunk]

Surprised there isn't any more discussion on this major winter storm. There is a very large precip shield beginning to form.

It looks like some areas of southern Iowa are going to get over half an inch of ice followed by 6 inches of snow with high winds creating near blizzard-like conditions on Sunday. This is the same area that was hit by the huge ice storm in December.

Here in St. Joseph, we are currently sitting at 33 degrees with light rain starting to fall. We are expecting over a half an inch of rain before we have a brief period of freezing rain. Tomorrow we'll end up with a few inches of snow. Windy conditions will make travel hazardous.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Freezing rain and sleet have begun here a few miles NW of NWS APX and 18 degrees with 27 inches of snow on the ground.

GFS thermal profiles suggest mostly snow/sleet event with the NAM has +5 C air moving in aloft. Looking at upstream observations-I think the NAM probably has the right idea. Forecast for this area seems to rather quickly move in warm air even at the surface but I have my doubts. Forcasted QPF's are high, the ground is frigid and I suspect a signficant ice storm here followed by heavy snow tonight into Tuesday. The low track now favors very heavy snow for Eastern U.P.