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2/04/2007-2/9/2007 NOW: PA / NY (WINTER PRECIP / LES)

Exciting weather for those Lake Effect Snow buffs out there. Arctic air and a strong wind at the surface crossing Lake Ontario is contributing to some very impressive snows.

In Watertown, NY, moderate to heavy snow is falling and there has been well over 18" of snow just north of the city in the past 12 hours or so. Current WSR-88D images suggest that Thundersnow is likley occurring as well. Many power lines and trees are down in the area and states of Emergency have been declared in some areas as well.

The other interesting thing is that the winds have been gusting as high as 47 MPH along with the 2-3"/hour snows and the thunder and lightning.

Very cool indeed. This is the place to be today if you like L.E. snow. If you're not there already, then you definitely won't be getting in.
 
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I am pretty impressed by the snow ratio there, I am not sure how accurate the stom total precipitation is from Ft. Drum radar, but it says 1-1.5" of total precipitation against at least 18" total snow. Also I am not used to see snowing at temps well below 10F (below -12°C) not to mention such low humidity, the true power of polar/arctic airmass.

We might see pretty large amounts of snow there by Tuesday according to this forecast map.

http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p47/Snowblitz/Feb_03_08_Snow_1st_Call.png

From NWS website...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
BOSTON 18.0
COLDEN 13.6
SO. WALES 11.5
HAMBURG 7.0

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 14.0
WATERTOWN 6.0

...MONROE COUNTY...
BRIGHTON 4.0
GREECE 4.0
ROCHESTER 3.5
 
Looking at the data, lightning has been occuring for almost 24 hours based on lightning data... Obviously the number of strikes isn't that high, but still impressive none-the-less.
 
As of this writing (10pm EST), there is still one massive band of LES moving south of KART. Snow total in KART have been 24" and there are reports of 48" of snow on the ground near KBUF. (I am not sure if all of 48" of snow fell with this event or not).

Snow ratios: They can easily range from 25:1 to 40:1 when arctic air is in place. That's when our blockbuster LES events occur. That is not uncommon at all during these very cold outbreaks.

The Tug Hill Plateau is the "Tornado Alley" for Lake Effect Snowstorms. FYI...Usual target location that gets nailed: Boonville, NY.
 
Don't waste your time at the EasternWX Forum. There are over 1400 posts in the LES thread alone. About 1 in 20 has something meaningful to say. The forum appears to be totally un-moderated, and many users have 5,000+ posts...of pure garbage.

Does anybody know the status of ice on the lakes? I guess it doesn't matter for upstate NY because Ontario rarely freezes. The band coming off Ontario right now looks impressive and well focused, but I wonder how it compares to the record events of the past. I don't think any 24 hour records are at risk at this time.
 
I just wasted 15 minutes of time sifting through EasternWx forum looking for the "impressive pictures". What a waste of time.

Check out the latest snowfall totals for this storm:

NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
SILVER CREEK 20.0"

...ERIE COUNTY...
EAST AURORA 36.0"
SO. WALES 26.0"
BOSTON 24.0"
SOUTH WALES 24.0"
WALES 24.0"
WALES 24.0"
BOSTON 21.0"
ELMA 12.0"

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 28.0"

And the winner of the purple banana so far is:

...LEWIS COUNTY...
NORTH OSCEOLA 42.0"
 
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Maybe EasternUSWx could have a 'report' type thread section? I looked through some of the 70+ pages and had a hard time finding photos and video.
 
I didn't know where to add this information, but has anyone noticed how extreme are current conditions at Mt. Washighton?
Summit station is reporting -24°F with winds gusting up to 114mph!

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

I just cannot imagine that windchill of -73°F...another thing I want to experience someday since winter trip to Summit it on my wishlist for ages.
 
Yes unfortunately the thread doesn't have nearly as many photographs as I thought it would. I guess they are not posting them and are out playing in the snow. :) There are a lot of pages of chat. The group is moderated though but it isn't as strict as this forum. It is a forum for people who want to talk about the weather from A to Z. Some threads are better than others. A lot more information though can be found on that forum (as far as real time reports). You just have to follow the threads. For every one post in here you may have 40+ over there.

Hopefully they will post more photos in the days to come. I know there are a number of people in the area that drove up there for the event. Starting to wish I would have.
 
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To keep this relevant, please refrain from talking about other forums in this NOW thread... Discussion of other sources of weather information is fine, but should take place outside of a NOW/FCST/DISC/REPORTS thread. Gracias.
 
Latest forecast for places in Oswego County is 20-40" for tonight and tomorrow. Tapering off Tuesday night. The band was looking a little ragged this afternoon, but its re-converging.

TWC had a reporter in the field this afternoon doing a live shot. It was snowing as hard as I have ever seen it. Had to 6"+ per hour.
 
I only live 2 hours from the worst hit areas. I should probably think about taking a 1-2 day trip sometime to check it out myself. Only thing...don;t plan on getting out of there anytime quick.
 
More outrageous snowfall totals from the Lake Effect Blizzard. This as of 9am EST on Tuesday.

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
PARISH 46.0" 710 AM 2/6
SCRIBA 45.0" 600 AM 2/6 27" LAST 12 HOURS
OSWEGO 31.0" 600 AM 2/6 CITY OF OSWEGO
PALERMO 29.0" 515 AM 2/6 BAND MOVED SOUTH
WEST MONROE 25.0" 600 AM 2/6 11" LAST 12 HOURS
 
Go to weather.gov and type in Pierrepont Manor, NY. Forecasted snowfall through Wednesday is 32 to 48 inches.

The band has narrowed but radar returns have increased. I see some 35dbz's popping up over the lake.
 
Another incredible report from Oswego county...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1227 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

6 HOUR SNOWFALL

NEW YORK

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
MEXICO 26.0 1215 PM 2/6
OSWEGO 12.0 1200 PM 2/6

26"/6h...that is averaging 4-4.5" per hour!

Storm totals are 57" for Mexico and 43.6" for Oswego. Thats gonna be even higher in those areas around Pierrepont Manor if forecast realizes.
 
Has anybody seen updated totals for the entire storm? Photos aren't really helping because there is so much compression in the snow.
 
Looks like the new "hotspot" is Lorraine, NY and Pierrepont Manor, NY... Up to 56 inches of new snow is expected through Thursday. I assume that's on top of the +55 inches being reported around that area, for a storm total of more than 110 inches. All I can say is wow.
 
I feel like there is a lack of information coming from that region. Hopefully, it will all get taken care of when the storm ends and we will get a nice summary of the whole event.

Weather observers...keep clearing those snow boards every six hours! To clear up any confusion I said snow board not snowboard, there's a difference.
 
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY.

INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SNOW WILL FALL AT THE RATE OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

SO AREAS WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OF ONE TO THREE FEET...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS MAY BRING THE FIVE DAY STORM TOTAL TO OVER 100 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.

8-9 ft. of snow !! That's what a warm winter will do when the pendulum comes back and all of sudden it's deep winter time...and the lakes are not frozen. The snow bands have been very persistent on radar. One of our customers outside of Oswego has had 6 ft. of snow since it started. She just started laughing when I asked her how they get around. She said at one point she had total whiteout and thunder.
 
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Sorry, I can't get sick of reading this.

Sandy Creek, NY:

Tonight: 25 to 31"

Thursday: 12 to 18"

Thursday Night: 5 to 9"
 
Currently as of 9:00 pm EST on Wednesday there is one monstrous band that is firmly reestablished along and East of Lake Ontario in Upstate New York. There is undoubtedly quite a bit of thundersnow and snowfall rates of 4-5" per hour or more.

Some TV Meteorologists have publicly said also that this storm would likely bring in excess of 100" to some places. This last happened a few years ago in Boonville, NY (if I am not mistaken).

PS: NWS BUF is forecasting 2-3 FEET of new snow tonight in the Tug Hill Plateau!!! Whew.
 
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