12/31/10 NOW: MO, AR, IL, LA, MS

[Bob Hartig]

With three tornado-warned storms already occuring, might as well get this thread going. There's a nice, semi-discrete cell southwest of Ava, MO, showing pronounced rotation. Maximum DV of 94 knots.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Parameters are coming together over the indicated area for a widespread severe weather event. I'm kind of surprised to see so many tornado-warned cells in N/C MO given the complete lack of SBCAPE and meager MUCAPE (<= 500 J/kg). Haven't seen any reports from any of these cells, but KLSX data show that they are indeed rotating. I suspect they will weaken and disorganize as they continue to move northeast.

Farther south, over AR, LA, TX (for now), and MS, SBCAPE is on the rise and is already exceeding 1000 - 2000 J/kg in areas. Current visible satellite shows much of LA and MS is covered in low clouds, but they are eroding in NW LA and much of AR is in the clear. Thus instability should increase over the next few hours thanks to clearing skies and diabatic heating. 12Z soundings in the southern part of the region show a modest cap which will stave off convection until stronger forcing arrives later (could end up being a late night/overnight event). SRH is pretty good over the entire area: plenty good for strong tornadoes, but nothing off-the-scale (unless you're near the low centers or over the Gulf). Deep layer shear is sufficient for rotating storms, but it does taper off as one goes east. Looks like as of right now some portions of SE LA and S MS have only marginal shear, but the dynamics will move east and so will the shear. There is some low level CAPE, but it is concentrated mostly over SE LA and the line in AR (there isn't much in N LA, S AR, or MS). The combination of shear and instability (as well as low LCLs that pervade the region) has launched sig tor values up to 4 and 6 in S AR and S LA, respectively, but the axis of values > 1 extends all the way into S MO.

EDIT: As I wrote this, a tornado was spotted in Rolla, MO, and has apparently done some significant damage there.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Storms in central MO have lined out, while storms in northeastern MO/western IL are strengthening. Jet impulse must have grabbed hold of them. There's a pronounced couplet south of Pittsfield, IL, as well as rotation south of Bowling Green, MO. Attenuated-looking things, maybe wanting to morph into bow echoes, but you can't argue with the rotation.

 

[Keith Wilson]

St. Louis looks to get hammered in the next couple of hours by a tornado warned bow echo.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

St. Louis looks to get hammered in the next couple of hours by a tornado warned bow echo.

There's also a right-moving (seemingly) meso that's heading for the far eastern St. Louis metro.

EDIT: Should clarify that it's the southern end of the bowed line... it appeared to be pushing out a little faster for a few frames, but I guess it was the radar playing tricks on me.

 

[Will Tinder]

Sirens are going off in the metro, so far no one outside my apartment seems to be paying any attention though. St. Louis news stations are reporting a fatality in SW Missouri, but they aren't saying much more.

FOX 2 Streaming Live:
http://www.fox2now.com/news/livestreaming/

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Meso starting to tighten up and is heading for St. Louis. Good luck to everyone in that area.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Three dominant storms appear to have emerged from the N MO/SW IL mess. I now see why these storms are surviving, if not strengthening: SPI and one other sfc obs station have warmed about 8 F during the last four hours, so a pocket of > 500 J/kg SBCAPE has shown up in that area, right in front of the storms.

ADD: Now seeing up to four individual couplets within the bow headed for the St. Louis metro: two stronger and larger ones south of I-44, and two very small ones north of Augusta and headed towards the north side of town.

 

[Will Tinder]

Skies in the western part of the city are darkening fast. Tornado confirmed on the ground in Robertsville and Pacific, heading towards the western part of St. Louis County. I'm prepping to take a last look before I seek shelter myself.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Pretty good couplet right over Ballwin and Clarkson Valley right now.

 

[John Farley]

There is a strong couplet moving along I-44 in the general direction of downtown St. Louis. This is likely the same circulation that caused the tornado reports near Robertsville and Pacific.

 

[Jeff Duda]

There is a strong couplet moving along I-44 in the general direction of downtown St. Louis. This is likely the same circulation that caused the tornado reports near Robertsville and Pacific.

Strong one heading for Sunset Hills, too. TDWR is making detection very easy in this case.

ADD: tornado reported northwest of Waterloo, IL, southeast of STL metro. Couplet on LSX heading for Belleville, IL.

 

[Will Tinder]

Storm safely past my location at Chippewa and Hampton in St. Louis proper. I'm getting friends confirming the "unconfirmed" news reports of damage at the intersection of Watson and Lindbergh in Sunset Hills, St. Louis County. Cars overturned and homes damaged.

 

[Keith Wilson]

Storms now starting to crank up in C LA, Srn MS, NW FL, and SW AL in the tornado watch area. Storms are moving to the NE and it could get really nasty in Dixie Alley late this afternoon and tonight.

Temp of 73 and dew point of 67 with brisk SSE winds here in Walton County, FL right now. Action is still well west of me here, but I'm keeping an eye on development over the GOM as the energy slides east. I might end up on the beaches this afternoon.

ADDED: Now 2 confirmed deaths in Dent Co. Missouri when a mobile home was destroyed by a tornado.

 

[Zack Cooper]

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Mississippi. Looks like Jackson, MS may be in the path. A large and extremely dangerous tornado reported.

incredible hook on it and velocities showing a STRONG couplet.

not good at all.