12/29/06 NOW: KS / OK / TX

[Chris C Sanner]

http://www.wfaa.com

For some streaming video as well.

Storms firing everywhere, I'd be shocked if we don't end up with 20-30 tornado reports before the day is done at the very least.

Activity in Far N. Tx and Far S. Ok now developing as well...

 

[Mike Johnston]

From reports on Dallas TV Fox station, President Bush and wife had to take cover under a tornado warning...they took cover in an 'amored vehicle' on their ranch.

I am concerned about development over E Texas and possibly W LA later this evening, as RUC has the LLJ kicking up over 60kts over this area at the same time speed max of upper level jet rotates around the base of the trough. I know SPC in their latest outlook update predicts storms will go linear later this evening, but many times we see this type of nocturnal setup over the winter months fed by the LLJ in the presence of just enough environmental instability along with impressive wind shear at all levels. The wind chart at 850mb in itself is very impressive, especially considering strong backed winds at the surface right out in front of it. You might want to check it out.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Three distinct cells are of interest as of now, with those being the one east of Stephenville, one northest of College Station, and the other just east of Austin. These are likely difficult to observe, and potentially rain-wrapped, so do exercise extreme caution. I would imagine it's beginning to get dark, and night will fall quickly, so keep that in mind. In addition, as you head east, you're running out of ideal chase terrain.

* * * EDIT: I am a little suspect of areas near San Antonio, Victoria, and Austin at this time. Some linear activity is firing west of San Antonio, with more squalls out to the east from points east of Austin, southward.

***** TOR WAR for that cell north of Austin, south of Temple. Look out if you're in Temple! The one trailing that, just east of Austin, also has me concerned.

Watch that next cell..... now just east of San Antonio, moving rapidly north and intensifying. If I'm reading my map right, it looks like that new one is going up fast in Guadalupe (?) County!

 

[Evan Stubbart]

I agree that the cell south of Ft. Worth is going to move right between Ft. Worth and Dallas (more on the Ft. Worth side). The storms seem to be getting more intense. I don't see how the DFW metro area is going to escape this. I'm also seeing some new cells fire just south of Dallas that are popping up rapidly. I'd say we'll see about 40+ touchdowns before the night is over.

 

[Billy Griffin]

"I'd say we'll see about 40+ touchdowns before the night is over."

I certainly hope this isn't the case. Keep in mind that we have 11 reports so far, and most likely, some of these are second or even third reports of the same tornado. A 40+ tornado outbreak is very rare at any time of year, but nevertheless, I am hoping that as night and associated instability falls, we may see some of these embedded cells die down. Let's hope so, anyway.

 

[David Drummond]

Keep in mind we always get more reports during the event and much less actual verifications afterwards.

I am having a hard time picking anything "discreet" out of all that mess. I just grabbed a screen shot. I'll link it since it's almost a meg instead of posting it.

http://wx5tvs.com/ST/12.29.06.centx1.jpg

 

[Evan Stubbart]

I'll edit my earlier comment. I believe we'll see 40+ reports (including 2nd, 3rd, etc touchdowns on the same cells). My bad.

 

[Billy Griffin]

No worries, Evan. And no need to apologize. All I'm commenting on is I certainly hope that isn't the case. I'm thankful that this storm is coming in at this time of year, whereas instability is likely the least it could possibly be, and daylight hours are short. I'm hoping, for those who might be in the path of these storms, that as daylight fades, these storms will calm down. Again, no worries.

No matter how you look at it, this is a significant severe weather event, from Colorado all the way to the Gulf Coast. Thankfully, as I look at all data sources currently, the areas of most concern seem to be getting more confined to a few counties south of DFW. Obviously not good news for DFW, but I'm hoping we'll continue to see a downward trend in the severity of these storms.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Wow the storm got it back alright it's got a new hook on the radar and now that it is spinning watch for it to turn a little right and take on more of a N NE track E of Arlington and W of Dallas. Dallas TV News reporting vicious electrical storm occuring in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

Tornado Warning is in effect for Tarrant Co. NWS saying tornado could develop at anytime. HERE WE GO.... could this be the one?

 

[nickgrillo]

It's a very cluddered warm sector given the strong synoptic-scale ascent (i.e. via pronounced large-scale WAA and deep-layer forcing from the cold front). SPC/RUC mesoanalysis does show decent surface-based CAPE for this time of the year, even for TX. Very low dewpoint spreads and robust boundary layer moisture is making LCL heights extremely low -- i.e. <600m AGL -- per current sfc obs/RUC analysis. SRH is also on the extreme side, with more than ~400j/kg 0-1km SRH in the open warm sector environment, with stronger low-level vertical vorticity available to storms that interact with the warm front.

I'm sure we'll see a few more tornado reports through the evening (before sfc diabatic stabilization occurs and an inversion layer develops with the onset of nightfall).

 

[Jordan Hartley]

1 Killed 12 injured at a veterans Hospital down near waco. No reports yet around Dallas/Ft.Worth.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Looking at the Tarrant Co storm on WDSS-II display here at the lab (wtf I am doing working during the holidays?!)....looks like it has some good convergence underneath some decent rotation. The rotation is only about a kilometer above the radar, so this is not looking too good if it comes down....just took another, closer look and it looks like there may be a tight area of rotation on the right quadrant...it's at the tail end of the convergence line and....new scan in as I am typing and it looks like there is some rotation at the lowest tilt, though it does not look too strong

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Waco Tribune is reporting 1 dead and 12 injured

http://www.wacotrib.com/

 

[David Drummond]

Waco Tribune is reporting 1 dead and 12 injured

http://www.wacotrib.com/

I wonder if the pictures they have on that website were near where the injuries/death was. Most of the damage in those pictures looks mostly superficial or loose objects tossed around. Even the one with the roof damage, the window right next to it isn't even broken. The screen is still even on it.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Well supported moderate risk and complex mess of storms. At work so cannot be overly specific or detailed...

Agreeing with David Drummond, it is very difficult to really find "discrete" supercells in this conglomerate of storms. Impressive couplet being detected by DFW radar by SRRV under the tor warned storm East of Waco. This day is really turning the tornado numbers up at the very end of the year.