Brett Adair
EF5
The latest GFS ejects a rather potent s/w out of the southern plain states and spreads a divergent upper level pattern over the SE and TN Valley regions. Currently, the instability axis is a bit supressed as the system occludes to the north and west but a wedge front could come into play depending on where it sets up. Here are some parameters...
GFS BUFKIT is pretty impressive for Birmingham maximizing indicies at 9PM CST.
66/64
CAPE : 904 J/kg
0-1km SRH : 250
0-3km SRH : 350
Totals Totals: 54
SWEAT : 420
0-3km CAPE: 124 J/kg
500-850mb Lapse Rate : 6.7 C/km
Lifted Index : -4.2
Showalter Index: -3
KI : 37
950mb wind speed: 35KTs
0-3km Shear: 41m/s
This all leads to this storm mode in BUFKIT which is summarized by I1 and could be possible if the wedge front sets up over Central/East Alabama and increases our shear.
SUMMARY I1
1/4 curve to 2.5 km, Linear to 7.5 km,
Us = 60 m/s, Low CAPE
Shallow, cyclonic, right-moving supercell:
The initial cell gradually evolves into a small, weak cyclonic supercell which strengthens after 2 hours. However, the vertical wind shear is too strong relative to the cold pool circulation to promote sufficient lifting for new ordinary cell growth along the gust front.
This could become quite an interesting situation depending on where the upper trough sets up....but the redeveloping ridge to the south should cause a gradient and increase the wind fields overhead as this system lifts out. Something to watch as SPC has already highlighted a risk area for this.
GFS BUFKIT is pretty impressive for Birmingham maximizing indicies at 9PM CST.
66/64
CAPE : 904 J/kg
0-1km SRH : 250
0-3km SRH : 350
Totals Totals: 54
SWEAT : 420
0-3km CAPE: 124 J/kg
500-850mb Lapse Rate : 6.7 C/km
Lifted Index : -4.2
Showalter Index: -3
KI : 37
950mb wind speed: 35KTs
0-3km Shear: 41m/s
This all leads to this storm mode in BUFKIT which is summarized by I1 and could be possible if the wedge front sets up over Central/East Alabama and increases our shear.
SUMMARY I1
1/4 curve to 2.5 km, Linear to 7.5 km,
Us = 60 m/s, Low CAPE
Shallow, cyclonic, right-moving supercell:
The initial cell gradually evolves into a small, weak cyclonic supercell which strengthens after 2 hours. However, the vertical wind shear is too strong relative to the cold pool circulation to promote sufficient lifting for new ordinary cell growth along the gust front.
This could become quite an interesting situation depending on where the upper trough sets up....but the redeveloping ridge to the south should cause a gradient and increase the wind fields overhead as this system lifts out. Something to watch as SPC has already highlighted a risk area for this.
