11/23/04 FCST: MO,AR,LA,TX

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I am going to wait until the next ETA run is out before posting to much of a forecast. I do see a good chase ahead however. We are extremely slow here at work so I may very well take off tomorrow if I can find someone else to split the gas bill. At this point I'm thinking a target of Tyler TX with the heightened chance of having to go south from there.

Mick
 
Well, things have certainly shaped up quite a bit. The shear and low proximity I mentioned in my previous post appear to have improved pretty significantly. I would still target Shreveport, LA, with the expectation of moving south from there. But I'm gonna sit this one out, because I think it's gonna be dark before things really get cooking there.
 
The 18Z mesoeta has slowed the system ever so slightly so that the surface low is forecast to be ~30 mi west of Fort Worth by 00Z.

This is good news for chasers who prefer central Texas over the piney woods east of I-45. This is bad news if you're sitting in College Station with a thesis you're supposed to be writing.

The 18Z mesoeta also forecasts a very minor secondary surface low moving up from Cotulla to near Victoria by 00Z. I'm not sure how much faith I can put in that forecast, but such a feature would have to be watched as it would back the surface winds even further in the Waco/Austin/College Station area.

It's hard to be excited about instability when it's 64 and raining outside, but looking at those temps/dp's south of the boundary (79/70 and partly cloudy in Victoria), I think we've got ourselves a nice unstable airmass heading this way.

As the 850 winds pick back up during the day, bringing in moisture off the Gulf, it looks like the ETA wants to break out a bunch of junk during the morning and early afternoon across the target area which would of course be bad. Hopefully this won't be a no-cap convection fest before the main show can get here, but midlevels are supposed to dry out quite nicely so if the atmosphere can remained untouched, we will be primed and ready.

Not to be a homer but I would put my target area near or just west of College Station TX on the nose of that screaming 500 mb jet and north of that potential secondary surface low. We'll have to play the waiting game to see where surface winds can get backed enough for some pre-squall supercells.
 
My problem is I am stuck with work related travel tomorrow. I will be sharing a rental car driving to Houston. Chasing is one thing being stuck in a car with disinterested neophytes while driving into danger will probably provide an angst fill day. I can only hope that the system moves into Texas late and that the site meeting is short. I hear that the cold front may not move out of new mexico until mid afternoon so delays in the systems movement are optimistic. As for the site meeting being short I am not optimistic. These affairs are always long winded and repetative.
 
To me, this now looks like the real thing down here in Texas. We have a sfc low, a warm front, inbound vortmax, and overhead jets, with plentyashear. Problem is we have lots of flooded roads so, not sure how I can chase it. For those of you with Weathertap access take a look at the storm precipitation totals and locations: http://www.weathertap.com/protected/gen/ra...ad_grk_pt.shtml. That's a lot of water. Anything south of a AUS / CLL line is in danger of being already under water or quickly becoming that way. Even areas east of ACT have received up to 5 inches.

So the question is not will there be storms, but will you have to chase them in a boat!

Hopefully my town will still be standing when it's over.

Good luck if you go out and be careful and mindful of the flooding road situation. :iroc:

Here is a link to Tx road conditions. http://www.dot.state.tx.us/hcr/main.htm. Sometimes that graphical viewer works, but lately it is very slow and overloaded.
 
Ill have to drag out the chase equipment and go with just a scanner and perhaps GPS for this one. Ill be keeping an eye on it here in Wichita Falls but looks to be that most of the action will be East and South of here. Very foggy here tonight.
 
IMO tomorrow's potential relies on helicity, much like the Nov 10 OK event. Models don't seem to be picking up on moisture very well, as it looks rather arid through 700mb per ETA. Obviously this won't be an issue since we'll need waders to go after this stuff. I did a quick spot forecast and have come up with a DFW/Stephenville/Waco triangle for starters. I really dig the UVV spikes stacked along this region, and although the forecast helicity doesn't look very good, I'm not concerned. I don't think helicity is possible to forecast in advance this far, so I'm waiting for tomorrow morning's runs and hoping for better results.

As with all systems this time of year, it's gonna be all about dynamics. CAPE is modest, but again that's not a concern as helicity will be the make/break element tomorrow. I'll make a decision by 12z or so and if it feels like love, I'll point my arse to the best 1km helicity with a side of CAPE.
 
This event looks incredible. I'm most impressed with the dry slot charging its way in from the southwest over southwest Texas. I'm anticipating a major severe weather outbreak.

Too bad I haev to work and can't chase.

Best of luck to all who find themselves in the field...
 
Like Jim, I am definitely impressed by the dry slot. When I saw that last night, I began to believe that a big event was going to take shape.

I really think that great 0-1 km shear will be present across the entire warm sector, despite the modest amounts of helicity forecast by the ETA. As of yesterday, the real wild card in this situation was insolation, IMO. However, cloud cover will not be a problem today, at least based on w/v imagery which clearly shows an area of mid-upper level subsidence moving over central and northeast Texas. Given this and very cold mid level temperatures, CAPE of 3000 j/kg should be realized.

The low level jet has formed, per the Palestine, Texas wind profiler (35 kts just above the sfc). Dewpoints are beginning to climb near the Gulf coast (already 70 at some sites) and should continue to do so throughout the day as strong warm air advection develops.

Barring storm mode problems (e.g. linearization of convection), I expect a tornado outbreak. There could be some particularly strong tornadoes given the extreme low level shear, large instability and low LCLs. Also, many of the tornadoes that form will likely be long trackers due to the fast wind speeds in the mid-levels.

Gabe
 
looking at all the data,looks to be from E.Tx down to the Gulf Coast.does anyone have a good idea where the most severe of it is going to be.I live here in the E.Tx area and want to be primed for the outbreak.any lead time from anyone taking a guess would be appreciated.
 
Clear, 78 degrees and rising. Dewpoint at 73 at 9:45am. I am seeing a significant day in the making.

Since my car is down :evil: I can't go farther than 10 miles from home before the tranny slips. I really want to go out for this one, especially since it is at home. IF anyone is chasing W of Houston and doesn't mind a ride along, PM me. I can throw a few greenbacks in. :D

Otherwise I will be out spotting and chasing (if you can call it that) around the Katy area when the convection starts to fire. Tor watch for just W of me already posted.

I received over 7" of rain yesterday and the ground here is beyond saturated. Many bayous and creeks overflowing so if you are coming down to chase, bring oars!

So much for baking pies for Turkey day today! :lol:
 
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