11/23/04 FCST: MO,AR,LA,TX

[Andrea Griffa]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn901.png

Very good map...I was waiting for this map

After 22th low pressure will deepen, moving rapidly toward north-est and we'll have high probability of severe thunderstorms. If there will be a good cape, shear will be favorable for producing supercells and tornadoes, considering also that there will be a good advection of cold air at midlevel that will steepen the lapse rates.


The last time to chase before Christmas?
Post your ideas and discussions

 

[David Draun]

Not bloody likely. On that day, the northern part of that area will have temps in the upper 30's to lower 50's. If there are thunderstorms, they would possibly be more on the order of accumulating sleet/hail producers, which isn't such a bad thing.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ats/threats.gif

This map does, however, does predict heavy rain and flooding

 

[Dan Cook]

Doubt it. Rain and light snow's predicted for my area around that time frame.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I don't know guys, I'm not in USA now but watching 850 T and geopot things are not bad especially in Missouri and South Illinois...Temperatures maybe can still support some thunderstorms.
For Iowa and Wisconsin, you're right, ground temperatures are too low.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn902.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn905.png

 

[Dan Cook]

There might be non-severe storms. ETA isn't showing any cape by Tues.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
There might be non-severe storms. ETA isn't showing any cape by Tues.

New Eta run shows a bit cape overall for MO...For now it's too low; I hope it will get up.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...0_mlcape_84.gif

 

[Kevin Statler2]

The South should be in for a rough ride tuesday...

HEADLINE...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS FOLLOW.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ms/discussion.html

Dynamics at this time look pretty strong....

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by Kevin Statler
The South should be in for a rough ride tuesday...

HEADLINE...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS FOLLOW.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ms/discussion.html

Dynamics at this time look pretty strong....

Not bad! I add LA and AR...With a similar low pressure system kinematics will be great but probably cape it will be too low to have a tornado outbreak.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The Southeast can see some major outbreaks in November. Intense <985MB cyclones aren't all that uncommon during the month. It's just a matter of if the systems have sufficient Gulf moisture/CAPE to work with. When they do, watch out!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/nov151989/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/nov151989/grap...cs/swody19z.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/ss111002.htm

http://www2.msstate.edu/~dem35/chaselogs/n...10/day12000.gif

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
The Southeast can see some major outbreaks in November. Intense <985MB cyclones aren't all that uncommon during the month. It's just a matter of if the systems have sufficient Gulf moisture/CAPE to work with. When they do, watch out!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/nov151989/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/nov151989/grap...cs/swody19z.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/ss111002.htm

http://www2.msstate.edu/~dem35/chaselogs/nov10/day12000.gif

You're right Andy. Then now I see that GFS put down the low pressure that might interest better some states like LA,AR,Misissipi and TN.
In the older runs low pressure of 995mb was centered in MO: now in Westwern OK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn661.png

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Depending on the instability, I can see the potential for a weak tornado associated with some low-topped storms in northwest and north central Texas, perhaps between CDS and SPS around 22Z. I might outlook 2% near the track of the vortmax if current solutions hold.

This all based on a quick and dirty scan of today's 12Z ETA. Lots of lift ahead of the system, widespread precip, and midlevel moisture forming a conga line of problems for this setup however, in addition to dubious return progs, weak sun angle, short day, bad climo, etc etc. This is a nice bonus for chasers already in the neighborhood.

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I'm focusing on the neighborhood of I-20 in LA, as that's about as far as I'm willing to go for this, and it looks like it's gonna be a big soupy mess, with the outside chance of a decent short-lived and rather fast-moving cell or two burried in the mix. Not sure those odds are worth the 1,000 mile trip. Instability and moisture should be pretty good there. The problem is that shear isn't all that great, and the proximity to the low leaves something to be desired. It looks like it will amount to a poor-visibility, needle-in-a-haystack scenario in an area that's going to already be sopping wet. Yay, fun!

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Originally posted by Morgan Palmer+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Morgan Palmer)</div>

ADMIN: Moved by Morgan Palmer... first to the wrong thread. Heh.

<!--QuoteBegin-Jeff Piotrowski

Tonight’s new 0Z ETA runs looks deeper and farther south with surface low and upper low. Target for 18Z Tuesday west of Waco is where the warm front and dry line setup. Cape 2000-3000 J/KG Waco south. Temps 70-75 dew points 60-65. Storms fire on the warm front around Lampasas TX 18-20Z move ne toward Waco 0Z tornado’s are possible.

The 0 line at 850 mb plunges south after 6z Wednesday into northern Oklahoma at the same time the 700 mb low and 850 mb low tracks ne toward NW ARK/SW MO from central Okla. putting KS/OK border ne into SE KS/ WSW MO heavy snow.

This could get very interesting would not be surprised to see moderate risk on Tuesday central Texas.

[/b]

 

[mikegeukes]

For Tuesday Southeast Texas would be the area I be interested in.

Mike

 

[Jim Bishop]

Tuesday could be a significant severe weather event for Texas in particular, but also areas further east. The thermodynamics and dynamics appear to be coming together. I am concerned about *too much* forcing, but the shear may be good enough so that the forcing wouldn't matter, given the north-south oriented dryline/cold front.