11/22/05 FCST: NE/Mid-Atlantic Nor'easter

[David Wolfson]

The 18Z models are progging a very dynamic system up the Mid-Atlantic coast and eastern New England, followed by a very chilly blast deep into the Southeast. Upstate NY at least looks set up for the first blizzard of the winter.

My guess is the actual storm will track a little east of the 18Z run, staying off the coast, as this model run has probably oscillated a bit west of truth.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yes, deep nor'easter definititely takes shape on the GFS. Certainly, the climatology is right - given that we are 3 or 4 weeks "behind" schedule on the normal progression into winter. However, the genesis of this system is rather hard to follow...looks like it is spinning up well offshore underneath a decently amplified trough, then retrogrades underneath it back west, only to get hung up in a rather compact area of divergence between the two jets. Most classic nor'easters begin further south and then are pulled up the coast. While this setup definitely bears watching, it just looks a bit fragile to me ATTM.

 

[HAltschule]

WOW. Where did that come from? It looks like I need to gas up the snow blower in case that storm pans out. VERY interstingly, there is strong vorticity maximum and jet streak making its way to the west of the main storm. This should tend to dig and make the storm more negative tilt resulting in a further westward track (usually). Tough call for sure, but I would be worried about the low tracking too far west to give us snow. But...if it jogs to the east by 50 miles, we will get hammered with the white stuff. Should be interesting to see future runs.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Wow, I'm glad something interesting is starting to pan out. A few days with nothing interesting is starting to get to me. As Howie said, it's a pretty tough call and still a few days out to do anything specific with... But something for everyone to keep an eye on.

The latest 00Z GFS is pretty interesting though - That vort max/shortwave that slides down the back of the system from the polar vortex pulls the nor'easter system north-westward, while phasing with the polar vortex itself (putting it near MI). That would reduce heights significantly across the eastern half of the United States with a northwesterly flow, and usher in frigid temperatures (upper 20's) as far south as Atlanta, with 0-10F around MI! Incredible for this time of year!

 

[MClarkson]

perfecting timing for the thanksgiving drive.... sweet.

 

[HAltschule]

UPDATE: 00z eta is much slower with the storm than GFS. Also, the vort max definitely pulls the whole storm inland as a BOMB. Judging by the model trends, it looks like a wind and heavy rain producer for most of New England and the Mid Atlantic instead of the white stuff.

GO GIANTS!!

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm keeping my eye on it... The last 18Z GFS round had some pretty heavy snow more towards my area, while the latest 00Z GFS trending eastward. I have a feeling this is gonna be all over the place until things actually unfold...

The track really does climatologically favor the eastern seaboard though, so I don't really "feel" the GFS pushing it so far westward - especially when all of the other medium range models are further east. Then again, some of Detroit Metro's biggest snowstorms have come from northwestward moving systems (December 1st 1974 - Storm was supposed to phase and track up the east coast, instead bombed over the Ohio Valley (or around there) and tracked northwest... Detroit Metro ended up with almost two feet... April ~20th 2005 - Storm system tracked northeast towards the Appalacians, then took a turn to the west northwest... Detroit Metro was spared, but areas 15-20 miles away received 12-18 inches).

As always, I'll be keeping an eye on this potential bomb.

 

[B Ozanne]

Well, looks like things are coming together for a decent nor'easter. The classic coastal route seems to be evolving and the models have finally come to consensus on the track. The ETA is progging a 970's low in the Gulf of Maine. At the very least we should see some travel chaos the next few days.

 

[HAltschule]

Yes, there is no doubt the storm will be a monster. Unfortunately for the snow lovers, there is no High Pressure area in Quebec so the chances of this storm giving us a major snow here in the East Coast and Southern New England is slim. We will see a changeover to snow with possible light accums. in the mountains, but I do not see this being too big of a deal. The latest FOUS runs from 12z show mostly a rain event with a ferw inches of wet snow possible in the mountains. Clearly an elevation storm. Clipper coming Thursday could give a 1-3" snowfall really quick and then it remains stormy with several other opportunities for snow storms over the next 10 days.

Summer/Fall in the Northeast just came to an end...back to reality.

 

[B Ozanne]

Pressures continue to fall at my house in Connecticut. Down to 29.05". Its no hurricane, but not bad for a November storm. The local MM5 suggests it will continue to fall, could go below 29.00".

Edit: Wow, after a brief rise a few hours ago it is falling once again. At 12:15 it is down to 28.87" or 977.5mb. Winds are starting pick up as the low passes by to the south and the gradient begins to tighten.

 

[B Ozanne]

Picture of my barograph just after it bottomed out.

 

[David Wolfson]

It looks to be about 28.68 centered just to the southeast of Block Island right now with a rather broad trough up the convergence through MA into NH. Not a bad little storm. As a kid growing up around Boston my minimum in a nor'easter was about 28.6".

3:55 EST over Martha's Vinyard @ 28.66". Cool.

 

[HAltschule]

VERY impressive!! As of 3:35 PM EST, we have changed over to snow. I am about 1 mile from the Albany airpoirt. The snow is light and a coating has accumulated so far.

 

[al pietrycha]

Dave,

This post is a bit late but perhaps of some use to you for the next system that roars up the East Coast.

http://stormeyes.org/maps/pa.gif
http://stormeyes.org/maps/bdl.gif

Yesterday, the depiction of the isobars made for one heck of a bullseye as the main surface low translated across Boston Harbor. The surface maps update at :11 and :28 past each hr; time stamp is CST.

-Albert Pietrycha
Once a long time resident of Cape Cod and a huge fan of Nor’easters

Originally posted by David Wolfson
It looks to be about 28.68 centered just to the southeast of Block Island right now with a rather broad trough up the convergence through MA into NH. Not a bad little storm. As a kid growing up around Boston my minimum in a nor'easter was about 28.6\".

3:55 EST over Martha's Vinyard @ 28.66\". Cool.