Robert Dewey
EF5
Latest SPC SWODY1 is out, and I pretty much agree with their thinking.
I'm still thinking that a pretty significant derecho will develop along much of the cold front, extending from the Gulf coast into southern lower MI. Obviously, the further north you head, the lower the instability will be (in addition to it being night)... But, I think the increase in forcing and low level shear will make up for that. I would think that any tornado threat will be from rapidly moving cells just ahead of the line, or embedded within the line itself. Remember, it only takes a tornado 10-15 minutes to be considered "long-tracked" at 60-70MPH...
Even if my area (MI) isn't able to develop much instability... With wind 70KNTS reaching down into the 2-3K FT layer, it won't take much more than showers to bring things down (right along the cold front where mixing is better)... And if the derecho don't knock us upside the head, the damaging synoptic wind event most likely will.
I am sure this thread could be expanded to include the south, since it's all the same event.
I'm still thinking that a pretty significant derecho will develop along much of the cold front, extending from the Gulf coast into southern lower MI. Obviously, the further north you head, the lower the instability will be (in addition to it being night)... But, I think the increase in forcing and low level shear will make up for that. I would think that any tornado threat will be from rapidly moving cells just ahead of the line, or embedded within the line itself. Remember, it only takes a tornado 10-15 minutes to be considered "long-tracked" at 60-70MPH...
Even if my area (MI) isn't able to develop much instability... With wind 70KNTS reaching down into the 2-3K FT layer, it won't take much more than showers to bring things down (right along the cold front where mixing is better)... And if the derecho don't knock us upside the head, the damaging synoptic wind event most likely will.
I am sure this thread could be expanded to include the south, since it's all the same event.