11/15/05 FCST: Midwest

[Robert Dewey]

Latest SPC SWODY1 is out, and I pretty much agree with their thinking.

I'm still thinking that a pretty significant derecho will develop along much of the cold front, extending from the Gulf coast into southern lower MI. Obviously, the further north you head, the lower the instability will be (in addition to it being night)... But, I think the increase in forcing and low level shear will make up for that. I would think that any tornado threat will be from rapidly moving cells just ahead of the line, or embedded within the line itself. Remember, it only takes a tornado 10-15 minutes to be considered "long-tracked" at 60-70MPH...

Even if my area (MI) isn't able to develop much instability... With wind 70KNTS reaching down into the 2-3K FT layer, it won't take much more than showers to bring things down (right along the cold front where mixing is better)... And if the derecho don't knock us upside the head, the damaging synoptic wind event most likely will.

I am sure this thread could be expanded to include the south, since it's all the same event.

 

[Scott Currens]

Dodgetornado

I have the day off, so I decided to head to the flatelands of southern Illinois to play some dodgetornado. These things will be moving very fast today. May plan is to get way out in front of a supercell and watch it fly by. If I don't get get smacked in the face by a long-track tornado then I will hunker down a try to survive the squalline.

Out the door!
Scott Currens

 

[Andrew Khan]

Supercells are likely going to develop during 7:30 PM-8:00 PM, in Mid-TN, along the front of the squall.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm thinking E TN will be under the gun overnight with a fast moving squall line event (3-6am time frame, 50-60mph forward speed on the line). May be some isolated cells leading the line. This one will make it across the Cumberlands, and those are always the evil events for that area. Main problem being, that area has no sirens, so if you don't have NWR you're out of luck unless you're up watching TV (2 out of three of the area TV mets are awesome when it comes to severe weather coverage). Almost kind of wish I was there today...I know the perfect hill to be sitting on.
Angie

 

[Robert Balogh]

Just a question

When was the last time SPC issued a PDS warning in mid-November?

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Re: Just a question

Originally posted by Robert Balogh
When was the last time SPC issued a PDS warning in mid-November?

nov 23 2004

 

[rdale]

How did that verify?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Quite well...

On topic for this event, we only have about half an hour of daylight left so there will be no visible tornadoes after that. I would not be surprised to see tornadic supercells continue well after dark given that surface heating never really played all that big a role in this event. Just like 11/6, you have very good phasing of low level jets that will keep enough instability to keep the storms sustained.

 

[Andrew Khan]

None of east TN has sirens....