11/13/05: WIND EVENT / NOVEMBER GALE

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Okay, still quite a few hours away... But the NAM has come into agreement with the GFS and other medium range models in a big way. It has the low deepening on the order of 12-14MB over 12 hours, down to 980MB or slightly lower, with a very tight pressure gradient at the SFC thanks to +1030MB highs on each side of the low... In the low levels, NAM shows widespread 60-80KNTS at 850MB (haven't checked mixing layer heights / thetaE x-sections, etc. yet), but the SFC plot does indicate sustained winds of 40KNTS for most of northern WI and northern lower MI...
 
Yup, looks like a pretty good high wind event in WI and MI. It's bombing too late again to give the rest of the midwest anything too exciting.
 
Just got done looking at NAM BUFKIT data and cross sections for various locations... General mixing layer heights are around 5K FT after the front passes, and wherever the strongest low level wind sets up is where things will get pretty bad. For instance, NAM shows 70-75KNTS well within the mixing layer at APX (Alpena, MI)... That's absolutely beyond impressive, that would translate into frequent gusts of 80-90MPH if the NAM has it's way! Basically, a mixing layer of 5K FT taps into the 850MB level, so what you see on that map is the gust potential for certain areas that can mix high enough (northern lower MI, WI, etc.). Talk about an inland hurricane!

Further away from the low, at DTX (Detroit/Pontiac, MI), things are a more "reasonable" with 45-55KNTS within the mixing layer... That would translate into solid advisory to low end warning criteria winds of 50-60MPH (gusts).

And just some info, Joel... I wouldn't discount your area quite yet. It all depends on where exactly the upper level low winds up - while the models agree that it WILL wind up, WHERE it winds up is still a question mark. The latest 00Z GFS actually digs the trough a bit deeper, and thus the system is about 25 MI further south.
 
...The Legend Lives On...

NAM continues to show a widespread damaging wind across the Great Lakes, though the trough now extends a bit further south than the 00Z run. The 12Z BUFKIT isn't in yet, so I am using cross sections to analyze the situation. But, the 06Z NAM BUFKIT did show an increase in winds across the GRR and DTX areas, with a forecast of 50-60KNTs rather than the 45-55KNTS previously.

Latest NAM and cross sections show most of MI and southern/central WI mixing well up into the 5-6K FT layer, or roughly 850-800MB, with very intense CAA taking place. At that level, winds of 60-70KNTS will be widespread, with pockets of 70-80KNTS above the lakes... At the SFC, that would translate into widespread and frequent 60-80MPH gusts, with 80-90MPH possible over the lakes and lake shore areas. That would rival or exceed the storm that occured back in November of 1998, where Mackinac reports wind gusts of up and over 90MPH!

The best pressure fall/rise couplet slides across northern lower MI, where the strongest winds will be likely given the combination of CAA, +70KNTS in the mixing layer, and a very strong pressure fall/rise couplet previously mentioned.

This looks like it could be quite a damaging event for areas of the Great Lakes, and if it materializes it could be by far the worst synoptic wind event in quite some time.

____

EDIT: Here are some maps...

Cross section of Theta-E and winds (mixing layer height):
http://www.waveformpc.com/pics/cross_section.gif
http://www.waveformpc.com/pics/cross_section2.gif

And a map of the 4-6K FT average wind speed:

mixing_speed.gif
 
Inland hurricane is right. And we thought it was windy last Wednesday. :shock:

Edit: La Crosse's AFD says it all:

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP....A SEVERE THREAT...THEN HIGH WINDS...THEN A POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. MUST BE NOVEMBER.
 
Latest 18Z NAM looks like it initialized a bit too weak with the SFC low (993MB, versus 18Z obs of 991MB)... Comparing the 21Z/3HR NAM SFC fields to the 20Z SFC obs, NAM has 995MB over areas that are already at or below 990MB... Unless those stations bump up to 995MB over the next hour, then I would have to say the NAM may be too weak with this system...
 
00Z NAM also looks a bit weak with the initialization... The RUC seems to be doing a better job, and puts the low at around 982MB by 12Z tomorrow over western Lake Superior. Also of interest, DVN is currently reporting wind gusts of 45-50KNTS behind the cold front, with widespread 35KNT winds elsewhere... Otherwise, things still look on track for a significant damaging wind event tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Here is the data from my weather station... Don't be surprised if you see extreme values (or abnormally low values; like every METAR station is reporting 30KNTS and I'm only reporting 10-15KNTS), as I can't vouch for it's accuracy. I'll probably report after the storm is over as to whether or not it was accurate.

Weather Station - 15 MI EAST OF NWSFO DTX

I'll see if I can get my webcam up in a bit to so that I can stream live data tomorrow via the internet (at 256k).
 
***Wind Advisory upgraded to High Wind Warning for parts of western Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. Sustained winds 40-50 mph are expected with gusts to 60 mph***

Bomb-o-genesis seems to be right on track with most stations near the cyclone center reporting sub-990 mb pressures. Lowest pressures I can find are at St. Cloud, MN at 988.5 mb (29.16" HG) and Brainerd, MN at 987.9 mb (29.15" HG). Interestingly, both have rather calm winds at 3 and 10 MPH, respectively. I guess you could call this the "eye of the storm".
 
...Also of interest, DVN is currently reporting wind gusts of 45-50KNTS behind the cold front....


I measured a peak wind gust of 49mph as the band of thunderless heavy showers came through. It blew hard for quite awhile. That was my highest gust of the year so far.

It looks like the strongest winds will spread across souther MN into the northern half of WI, and then into far northern lower MI and the UP.
 
Found this pretty interesting:

lightning.gif


Plenty of lightning in and around the center of the low... Lowest pressure I can see now is 987MB, being reported by several stations. Looks like a good portion of WI, almost all of lower MI, and the sections of the U.P. will get slammed by very intense winds. The U.P. might actually be saved given their location relative to the low (too close to the center of circulation). 03Z RUC showing 800MB winds (the top of the mixing layer at most locations mentioned) of 65KNTS by 15Z with a 984MB low. We shall see...
 
After the 49.2mph gust during the line of convection last evening, my record for the gradient wind since was 47.7mph around 6am this morning. It looks like the stronger winds expanded a bit further south than what I expected yesterday.

It looks like the winds are getting ready to really kick up in MI..
 
My weather station gets a data spike every now and then of >90MPH. I don't know what the deal is, but ignore them... :x

EDIT: Hmm... That's odd. It seemed to report a 55MPH wind gust fairly accurately. Based on other sites around me that are seeing 40-45MPH gusts, 55MPH doesn't seem too far off (considering my temporal resolution is better). My average gust speed is around 35MPH, right on target with NWS METAR sites...
 
What were the highest gusts recorded with this system? Did it get as high as forecasted? I noticed a 20' birch tree snapped off about four feet above the ground just up my street.

It now looks as if the storm for Tuesday-Wednesday could beat this latest one. I wouldn't be surprised to see very high winds for much of the midwest as the new low bombs. This one could have some wet snow with it too! :D
 
What were the highest gusts recorded with this system? Did it get as high as forecasted? I noticed a 20' birch tree snapped off about four feet above the ground just up my street.

It now looks as if the storm for Tuesday-Wednesday could beat this latest one. I wouldn't be surprised to see very high winds for much of the midwest as the new low bombs. This one could have some wet snow with it too! :D

I believe the highest gusts were 75-80MPH near the Mackinac bridge. I was calling for an isolated 90MPH amount, while the NWS was calling for 65MPH. It was in between, so I guess we were both right :D

Seems widespread max gusts of 60-70MPH were common, but I wouldn't be surprised if some areas gusted higher. Spotter and METAR networks up in that area of MI are rather thin.

Highest wind gust here was about 60MPH at around 8:30-9:00PM, which partially blew in our garage door. I was surprised how much winds kicked up after sun went down - that's usually the opposite of what happens. I also finally got my weather station straightened out - After I switched the software, the highest gust was 76MPH, which corresponded to the 60MPH gust, so I just calibrated the wind readings using a negative percentage offset.

This next event certainly holds good potential too in terms of bother severe weather AND high synoptic winds.
 
HOLLAND LAKESHORE /SPYGLASS/ 70 MPH 305 PM
6 MI SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE PT 64 MPH 150 PM
WEST OLIVE 62 MPH 225 PM
GRAND RAPIDS 60 MPH 337 PM
MUSKEGON LAKESHORE /GLERL/ 59 MPH 250 PM
GRAND HAVEN LAKESHORE 59 MPH 303 PM
SOUTH HAVEN LAKESHORE /GLERL/ 57 MPH 425 PM

SLEEPING BEAR DUNES 66 MPH 205 PM
SAULT STE MARIE (ONTARIO) 66 MPH 900 PM
POINT IROQUOIS 62 MPH 1000 PM
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT 60 MPH 455 PM
PELLSTON 59 MPH 103 PM

COPPER HARBOR 63 MPH (55 KT)
EAGLE HARBOR 60 MPH (52 KT)
 
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