11/09/05 FCST: So. California

[Brian Press]

Both the GFS and ETA are showing some good dynamics as well as plenty of moisture to work with. The wind profiles look good for some rotatiing storms. Obviously surface heating is always an issue with these kinds of systems due to the massive amounts of cloud cover but these cut-off low's do indeed produce some good stuff here along and just inland from the coast. Look at this water vapor..

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat....&type=wv&size=4

Both the SPC and local AFD's are calling for possible waterspouts and small tornadoes late tonight into tomorrow. Pretty exciting for us So. Cal folks.

B.p.

 

[Jay Press]

I doubt it will happen as the low sits off the coast churning a bit. PWV's are now lower than previously expected, thus decreasing the convective threat along with a slowing jet... The GFS does show a bit more southern track than the NAM, But we'll still monitor the situation...

JP

 

[Khristian Snyder]

I think that the best chance for any convection will be thursday afternoon/night. The low, and thus colder air aloft, will be closer to Southern California to help destabalize the atmosphere...but it is still not certain that some t-storms will develop. If they do, i think waterspouts will be possible thursday afternoon because the current NAM shows weak winds at all levels and PW increasing to around an inch. Also the NAM shows cape around 300-400j/kg. GFS is farther south with this system which would keep a lot of the instability in the cold core to our south, but it does show a large area of QPF over the inner waters of Southen California.

Okay thats all with my newbie forcast..

 

[Brian Press]

Yeah, I think our chances for any signifciant weather is looking pretty slim right now. That low has expanded northward yet it is still tracking south instead of south-east. It is now forecast to move into Northern Baja late Thursday. You might see some action down your way Khristian, but us up here in LA county should stay thunderless this go around. Yet, It is a cut-off low and we all know they have a mind of thier own. I hope this one wouldn't mind coming over my area for a fe day though.

B.p.

 

[Jay Press]

NOW

As the low slides south, a plume of moist subtropical content is approaching the LA area. It has been fairly clear all day so far so maximum heating has occured, so we can not rule out convection once it makes landfall. Wrap around TS with heavy rain will be the concern....

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Goes microwave imagery shows PW's about an inch within the bands and if this first one can come through with some good precip, which it looks like it will, it should moisten up the atmoshphere for more rain/thunder tonight....