George Tincher
EF5
It appears that Friday is shaping up to be a very rough day to be a resident across the SRN US. Forecast conditions and parameters seem to be pointing to a pretty major severe weather episode, yet again.
It appears that by tomorrow, a very unstable atmosphere should exist over much of this area. A mid-level dry punch should work into the area sometime tonight, which will create steep lapse rates. I would expect the clouds from any overnight convection to be diminished or out of the area soon after the sun comes up, so heating should begin right away. It appears SB CAPE should climb into the 2000-3000 range over most of the area by early afternoon. LI's to -7 should be possible over much of the area. And dewpoints will likely reach into the mid 60's. All of these ingredients combined should set the stage for intense severe thunderstorm development and will only need some lifting mechanisms to arrive to kick off the show.
Things should remain capped for the most part until the afternoon, when an 80 knt jet streak should begin to arrive. This should create for explosive thunderstorm development across the WRN portions of the threat area. And with the strength of the forcing that will be present, I don't see any cap worries. There should be more than enough available forcing to erode even a fairly strong cap. Also of note is the boundary/s that could be left over from tonight's activity. These could become a focus for new development tomorrow, in areas farther to the E within the threat area. As such, we may witness two or more waves of severe convection firing.
The dynamics again look very good, with that 80 knt (or more) mid level flow. Both deep layer shear and low level shear look good. Directional shear over the outer edges of the threat area could be better, but for the most part should be adequate over the SPC's moderate risk area. The 0-1 km shear looks more than favorable for supercell storms. And in areas just to the E of the secondary low that is suppose to develop over SERN MO and NERN AR, where winds will back......as well as along any boundaries that may be out there, the tornado risk should be enhanced.
Climatologically, this general area is very favored for significant outbreaks of severe weather this time of year. Some recent ones include Apr 8 and Apr 16, both events in 1998 that each resulted in a violent, F5 tornado. While I am not going to predict the formation of any violent tornadoes at this time, I will say I would not be at all surprised to see a few that are strong to violent over this area, based both on the expected conditions and parameters, as well as the area's climatology.
Some of the larger towns and cities I feel are most at risk include:
In Tennessee: Memphis, Jackson, Nashville, Columbia, Clarksville
In Mississippi: Tupelo, Columbus and Jackson
In Alabama: Birmingham, Hamilton, Florence, Decatur, Huntsville and Tuscaloosa
And in addition to the threat of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, the threat for flooding will also exist, due to the multiple waves of storms that may develop over the threat area, as well as PW values that range from 2.5 to 3.5. And this isn't just limited to the moderate risk area. Heavy rain may also pose a threat of flooding all the way up into KY, IN and OH.
In short, unless we see drastic changes, I expect tomorrow to be a very busy day for folks across these areas of the south. But one can never be sure. It seems recently the models have been fairly consistent with these systems right up until the night before...then they paint a totally different picture than they had the previous few days. But we'll see.
It appears that by tomorrow, a very unstable atmosphere should exist over much of this area. A mid-level dry punch should work into the area sometime tonight, which will create steep lapse rates. I would expect the clouds from any overnight convection to be diminished or out of the area soon after the sun comes up, so heating should begin right away. It appears SB CAPE should climb into the 2000-3000 range over most of the area by early afternoon. LI's to -7 should be possible over much of the area. And dewpoints will likely reach into the mid 60's. All of these ingredients combined should set the stage for intense severe thunderstorm development and will only need some lifting mechanisms to arrive to kick off the show.
Things should remain capped for the most part until the afternoon, when an 80 knt jet streak should begin to arrive. This should create for explosive thunderstorm development across the WRN portions of the threat area. And with the strength of the forcing that will be present, I don't see any cap worries. There should be more than enough available forcing to erode even a fairly strong cap. Also of note is the boundary/s that could be left over from tonight's activity. These could become a focus for new development tomorrow, in areas farther to the E within the threat area. As such, we may witness two or more waves of severe convection firing.
The dynamics again look very good, with that 80 knt (or more) mid level flow. Both deep layer shear and low level shear look good. Directional shear over the outer edges of the threat area could be better, but for the most part should be adequate over the SPC's moderate risk area. The 0-1 km shear looks more than favorable for supercell storms. And in areas just to the E of the secondary low that is suppose to develop over SERN MO and NERN AR, where winds will back......as well as along any boundaries that may be out there, the tornado risk should be enhanced.
Climatologically, this general area is very favored for significant outbreaks of severe weather this time of year. Some recent ones include Apr 8 and Apr 16, both events in 1998 that each resulted in a violent, F5 tornado. While I am not going to predict the formation of any violent tornadoes at this time, I will say I would not be at all surprised to see a few that are strong to violent over this area, based both on the expected conditions and parameters, as well as the area's climatology.
Some of the larger towns and cities I feel are most at risk include:
In Tennessee: Memphis, Jackson, Nashville, Columbia, Clarksville
In Mississippi: Tupelo, Columbus and Jackson
In Alabama: Birmingham, Hamilton, Florence, Decatur, Huntsville and Tuscaloosa
And in addition to the threat of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, the threat for flooding will also exist, due to the multiple waves of storms that may develop over the threat area, as well as PW values that range from 2.5 to 3.5. And this isn't just limited to the moderate risk area. Heavy rain may also pose a threat of flooding all the way up into KY, IN and OH.
In short, unless we see drastic changes, I expect tomorrow to be a very busy day for folks across these areas of the south. But one can never be sure. It seems recently the models have been fairly consistent with these systems right up until the night before...then they paint a totally different picture than they had the previous few days. But we'll see.
