nickgrillo
EF5
A deepening trough at 500mb will move into the southern US during Sunday and Monday... Extending along an axis from the deep south into the great lakes area. The system will begin to induce significant return flow beginning on Sunday, as flow shifts south/southwest in response to the approaching trough. The trough will deepen and progress into eastern TX/AR/LA on Monday. Surface dewpoints should climb into the low-mid 60s... Combined with surface temperatures in the low 70s, ahead of a shortwave and associated mid-level circulation should provide for some decent surface-based instability. Mid-level flow is pretty meager at best across the area (<30knts)... Though decent veering height through a deep layer and moderate low-level flow should contribute to favorable vertical shear profiles supportive of some organized severe thunderstorms across eastern TX/northern LA/AR.
--> http://www.midwestchase.com/october31st_outlook.jpg
--> http://www.midwestchase.com/october31st_outlook.jpg