10/25-26/05 FCST: Northeast U.S.

[HAltschule]

THE 00Z ETA AND MM5 ARE STARTING TO COME IN. WOW!!! LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST IS GOING TO GET SLAMMED. HURRICANE WILMA ACTUALLY PHASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS CENTERED OVER MONTAUK, LONG ISLAND IN 2 DAYS. LOOKS LIKE FLOODING, 50+ MPH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS JUST MIGHT HAPPEN. I EXPECT MORE STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. A JET MAX IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AT 500MB WHICH MEANS NEGATIVE TILTING TO ME...AND A MORE POWERFUL STORM. THE ETA ALWAYS STINKS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

EDIT: Sorry for the caps.

EDIT #2: The latest ETA FOUS indicates that much of the northeast from Boston, MA to Albany, NY and points north may get some moderate to heavy snow from this storm if all pans out right. The temp. profile is right on the cusp of heavy wet snow....even in Boston!!! Wow. Are there such things as snow hurricanes? Maybe there is now?!?! PS: Note the sustained 40kt winds at the surface on the ETA FOUS. Looks like much of the Northeast will be seeing gusts to 50-60mph or more.

 

[Robert Dewey]

It is very interesting - actually very similar to what the GFS showed almost 162 hours ago. The 540 line will be quite close as the system wraps up, and 850MB temps are negative - though I'd like to see at least -4C this time of year. SFC temps also look like they will be in the upper 30's over a vast majority of the area, but Td's are progged to be in the upper 20's to lower 30's, so some evaporational cooling and latent heat absorbtion via phase changes (snow to liquid to evaporation with heavy precip rates near the SFC) might take place, creating a thermal profile more favorable for snow. Winds will be another big (major) factor.

EDIT: I don't know if this really belongs in the Map Room - but then again, I don't know if this is a hurricane or a winter storm? :shock:

 

[HAltschule]

The NWS Albany, NY has issued Winter Storm Watches for elevations above 1500 feet. In these areas, forecasts are for as much as 9" of wet snow in the mountains and up to 1" in the valleys. Depending on the exact placement of the low, their may be more in the way of snow in all areas?!?! Whew...looks like a nice early season snowfall.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This developing situation is already getting interesting. The trajectory of the incoming cold air is unusual. The high elevations of WV have already been seeing snow, freezing rain and temps right at or below freezing all morning. However, this cold air is advecting in from the southwest!

 

[HAltschule]

If the latest ETA and NGM pan out, most of the Green Mountains of VT and Northern Adirondacks of New York may see 1-2 feet of snow as a result of Extratropical "Wilma". It now looks like New York City and Boston will stay mostly rain with a sharp changeover well inland over New England. I think this may surprise a lot of people in the Northeast if this pans out.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm torn right now. A trip to Cape Cod to see wind and waves, drive to Vermont to see snow or stay at home and see wind and storm surge. So many decisions.

Right now it looks like the wind event over the coast will be impressive.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Howie looks like he's in a good position to go see some heavy snows. That would be absolutely awesome to see 12-14 inches of heavy snow on foliated trees. NAM snow algorithm outputs storm totals of 18-24 inches over quite a wide area of PA and NY... For what it's worth, the short term RUC hands more credibility to the NAM forecast - which outputs the most snow.

It kind of reminds me of the late April snowstorm we had this year, where some places received 18 inches of snow (while a few miles away, I seen NOTHING! :x)

Wish I was there... :x

 

[B Ozanne]

Pressure beginning to fall rapidly off Cape Hatteras as the secondary low is taking shape.

 

[MClarkson]

well the fsl developemental RUC is calling for 40 gusts to 50 knots along the coast, and the local nws office model graphics are saying gusts to 60, peaking around the tip of cape cod near provincetown. I have classes all day tommorow in Boston so durring a break ill probably get on the t and see what can be seen from the south shore, near quincy in boston harbor.


...low tide is around noon

 

[HAltschule]

ETA model at 6z has flip-flopped again and is now bringing colder air southward. It now looks to me like the ALbany, NY area Eastward to Boston, MA will see a 3-6" snowfall by tomorrow afternoon. If the snow ratios end up higher...then 7-8" might accumulate. But in this scenario I like a 5:1 ratio.

I haven't even raked my leaves and mowed the lawn for the last time. DOH