2/13/07-2/15/07 FCST: Northeast. U.S. (Historical Snowstorm)

[HAltschule]

Well...to say this upcoming Nor'easter is going to be a heavy snow producer is an understatement. Everything about the phasing and setup of the storm is incredible perfect. The track right over Eastern Long Island is ideal for huge snowstorms in the Northeast.

Recent model QPF gives between 2.45" and 3.61" of liquid equivalent precip. in Albany, New York. The latest trends are for all snow now in the Capital District with the wintry mix staying further south. Current temps are in the single digits and rain to snow ratios by storm time are still expected to be more than 10:1 IMO.

Winds with this storm are expected to be blowing at least 30-35mph in gusts. There is a very good chance that the heavy snow warnings will be upgraded to Blizzard Warnings for many areas today.

All in all, it looks like a wide swath of 25-30" of snow is quite likely in most areas of Upstate New York and New England. Some areas in the mountains may end up with snowfall totals of 4-5 Feet of snow...which is basically unheard of for coastal nor'easter storms.

It will be a very excting and interesting storm and one that will be fun to watch unfold.

 

[B Ozanne]

Snow is moving into my area much sooner than forecast. Arctic air is firmly in place (for now) with dewpoints around 0F. At the onset I'm expecting a significant virga storm.

I agree with Howie, interior New England is going to get some huge amounts of snow.

Please overload my webcam in VT here:

http://greenrange.viewnetcam.com/CgiStart?page=Single&Language=0

Edit: Just in time for the big storm the NWS websites on the east coast are basically useless.

 

[HAltschule]

The NWS Albany is painting a grim picture for the storm. Most model QPF has been in the 2.00-2.50" range today...except for the 18z META. This model gives us almost 3.00" of liquid QPF. The NWS is comparing the possibility that this could be similar to the Blizzard of 1888 for our area.

Furthermore, if the 18z ETA is correct, Albany may break their ALL-TIME biggest snowstorm on record. I do think we will fall short of that though...with only about 22-24" of snow from this storm. We shall see.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=discussion

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&hours=hr36hr24hr30

I wonder what the winds will really gust to. That thing really bombs out. 993 to 975 in just 12 hours.

 

[B Ozanne]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&hours=hr36hr24hr30

I wonder what the winds will really gust to. That thing really bombs out. 993 to 975 in just 12 hours.

I was thinking the same thing, but the NWS disagrees. They just cancelled the high wind watch for coastal areas. High winds, but not meeting warning levels.

Howie, sleet might hamper your snow totals. NWS in Burlington is forecasting sleet all the way into central VT with surface temps holding in the low 20's.

Anybody want to do an over/under on when Saul asks about the possibility of thundersnow? I'll set the mark at 9am Wednesday...and I'll take under (or before).

 

[HAltschule]

Yeah, I actually updated my snow totals to 18-24". Some sleet might move in, but given the amount of immense vertical motion...it might be enough to compensate for the warm layer and cool the column...hence keeping us all snow. Plus..Burlington, VT is a little bit east of it...and the difference of a few miles along the axis of the Hudson Valley will make all the difference of all snow versus sleet mix. Interestingly the 18z ETA keep us all snow in ALB...as does the GFS. Sleet here certainly would not surprise me, but it would not surprise me to see 25"-30" in Albany either if the 18z ETA pans out.

FYI....NWS Albany also suggested snowfall rates in some areas of 6" per hour. While this may be a little bit extreme, I do think thundersnow is very likely in the Capital Region tomorrow and tomorrow evening!!!

Should be fun.