1/3/06: Winter Storm - Northeast U.S.

Aug 16, 2005
Albany, New York
Wow. Models are trending much closer to the coast. My favorite forecaster in BOS (Walt Drag) is talking major ice storm in most spots with inland locations getting 6-12" of snow. Albany, NY cross sections are as follows:

06z GFS MON: 12" of Snow
12z ETA MON: 0" of Snow, some sleet/freezing rain and mostly rain.

T1T3T5 temps on FOUS are all around 00. Some values are below. With +10 mb/s VV, we may be talking about snow as the column is rapidly cooled. Talk about a tricky forecast!!!

Feel free to chime in with your thoughts.
Definitely is tricky... I thought we would have dynamically cooled last night with a "surprise snowstorm"... Yesterdays 00Z/06Z models had continued with a cooling trend, and VV's were forecast to be around 10 mbars/s for a rather extended period of time (+12 hours). The layer was forecast to warm to only 1C-2C at my location, but the layer was pretty thick (1500m)... Unfortunately, the WAA was much too strong for significant dynamic cooling, with only a few stations briefly reporting snow about 2 hours into the game before quickly changing back to rain.

I haven't reviewed the northeast yet to see what's happening, but it definitely is tricky.