After my embarassing forecast bust for yesterday I could easily stand on the sidelines and let someone else post a thread about this event but one thing Ive learned over the years is you cant be afraid of failure, its the only way to learn. Its like a 9th inning closer in baseball, he blows a save one night but must have a really short memory b/c he'll be called on the very next night to save the game once again...BUT I DIGRESS
The cut off low that has been hanging off the Southern California coast for the last several days will finally be making its way EWRD across the desert SW over the next 48 hours. In the meantime a cool front will push through N TX this afternoon then wash out over C/ERN TX tomorrow due to its shallow nature and lack of any strong push behind it. This "washing out" will prevent Gulf moisture from being "cleaned out" s/t it will be allowed to come back north with the next system, that being the cut off low.
By late Wednesday, the sfc flow should again be out of the S bringing 50/60 dews NWRD overnight with the cut off low being situated over NM. Thursday afternoon should see a dryline established across the High Plains of TX/OK with ~35kts of bulk shear. Both models initiate precip along the dryline across the TX Panhandle Thr but Im a bit skeptical that the models are overdoing it to a degree due lack of strong forcing, therefore, I would expect Thursday to be an isolated event driven mainly by peak heating.
All in all, I believe the basic setup is there for a supercell event. Wether that will actually come to pass remains to be seen. Its also worth noting that due to the cut off nature of the low, if Thursday doesnt pan out, Friday will also present itself as a potential day, specifically across SRN KS/NRN OK.
EDIT: Just posted a slightly more in depth discussion on setup for Thr/Fri in my blog, together with several maps and images
The cut off low that has been hanging off the Southern California coast for the last several days will finally be making its way EWRD across the desert SW over the next 48 hours. In the meantime a cool front will push through N TX this afternoon then wash out over C/ERN TX tomorrow due to its shallow nature and lack of any strong push behind it. This "washing out" will prevent Gulf moisture from being "cleaned out" s/t it will be allowed to come back north with the next system, that being the cut off low.
By late Wednesday, the sfc flow should again be out of the S bringing 50/60 dews NWRD overnight with the cut off low being situated over NM. Thursday afternoon should see a dryline established across the High Plains of TX/OK with ~35kts of bulk shear. Both models initiate precip along the dryline across the TX Panhandle Thr but Im a bit skeptical that the models are overdoing it to a degree due lack of strong forcing, therefore, I would expect Thursday to be an isolated event driven mainly by peak heating.
All in all, I believe the basic setup is there for a supercell event. Wether that will actually come to pass remains to be seen. Its also worth noting that due to the cut off nature of the low, if Thursday doesnt pan out, Friday will also present itself as a potential day, specifically across SRN KS/NRN OK.
EDIT: Just posted a slightly more in depth discussion on setup for Thr/Fri in my blog, together with several maps and images
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