10/18/07 FCST: WI/MI/IA/MO/IL/IN/OH/KY/TN

[Doug Raflik]

I really, REALLY like the way todays set up looks! Going off of the 10Z (and 9Z as not all times for the 10Z run are showing) RUC, I will be heading out to the Kankakee, IL area. This is on the west end of the tounge of best dews of low to mid 60s. In the narrow cape axis of 1000 to 1500. Helicity values of around 300, and increasing to the east. Nice temp/dewp spreads. And right smack dab in the middle of the best wind fields. And am I seeing this right??? Clear skies coming into the target area pushing the overnight convective crap out? That never seems to happen on days I chase. Its always a question of if enough, if any sun will be able to peak through and heat up the area. I hope to be in place around 1pm.

Doug Raflik

 

[Doug Raflik]

I really, REALLY like the way todays set up looks! Going off of the 10Z (and 9Z as not all times for the 10Z run are showing) RUC, I will be heading out to the Kankakee, IL area. This is on the west end of the tounge of best dews of low to mid 60s. In the narrow cape axis of 1000 to 1500. Helicity values of around 300, and increasing to the east. Nice temp/dewp spreads. And right smack dab in the middle of the best wind fields. And am I seeing this right??? Clear skies coming into the target area pushing the overnight convective crap out? That never seems to happen on days I chase. Its always a question of if enough, if any sun will be able to peak through and heat up the area. I hope to be in place around 1pm.

Doug Raflik

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm surprised this morning at how fast the leftover precip is moving out. It is encouraging to see no precip and even some clearing already across Illinois. Need to confirm this with a good visible sat image, but already the setup looks better than yesterday.

 

[George Tincher]

Dan, I agree. I figured it might have been nearly noon before things started to clear up significantly, but it appears to be doing so much earlier than I had assumed. This could make things get very, very interesting.

BTW, I guess I wasn't just seeing things earlier when I was looking at WRN TN either. I see that the SPC decided to drag the moderate risk and 15% hatched tornadoes down a bit to cover that area as well. It seems the area between Memphis and Jackson sure is an active one, especially over the course of the past decade.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

INCHASE is out today, we are targeting for now, Lafayette, Indiana. Have been monitoring and trying to predict the moisture, seems a movement bit south now, so as we get into position, we might be moving a toward the southern line of the warned box.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I am in the St. Louis area and it is crystal clear and very windy. I think today holds very good potential for supercells once the cold front moves towards the MS River. By late afternoon, the dewpoints will continue to be high, shear is in place, instability looks to be much better than yesterday given that there should be no convective debris to inhibit heating, and wherever the front will be at that time will be where the show will begin. I am unfortunately out on this one.

Virtual target: Carbondale, IL and wait for cumulus to pop. Pretty good road network in all directions and it looks as if the activity will begin to explode as it crosses the MS River.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Still like today's prospects. Amazing how yesterday I was concerned about things being gone too early, and now my biggest concern is getting things to initiate before sunset. Like everyone else, I'm glad to see sunny skies here as I wake up. Looks like the atmosphere might take a little time to fully recover before we're ready to go, but getting a head start on that right now will help. It looks like the warm sector should remain in eastern Illinois for most of the day. As Scott mentioned, the earlier rain/wind shift has kind of pushed the best moisture slightly east, but with continued insane southerly flow, by mid afternoon we should be seeing deep moisture back across central Illinois.

Surface winds should improve through the day to about due southerly by afternoon, with maybe some hinting at backing in southern areas.

Right now, initial target is going to be somewhere in the Champaign to Effingham to Springfield triangle most likely. After glancing at a few more things before hitting the 'post' button, I almost feel like getting further south towards Effingham could be the best bet. We'll see... but I feel pretty good at saying that I think the best shot for anything before dark is going to be south of Interstate 72/Champaign. I think areas north into northern Indiana might not see any convection until late, likely a couple hours after dark.

 

[Robert Dewey]

SPC has backed the MDT out of MI... can't say I agree with that move though. The 12Z NAM continues to show LI of -6C through at least 06Z, combined with excellent shear. NAM shows initiation from SW MI through SW IL around 03Z/FRI, spreading rapidly ENE. This action continues well into the night-time hours, where LI AOB -5C will persist.

I suspect a strongly linear structure to develop a couple hours after initiation (best chance of isolated strong tornadoes appears to be in eastern IL and IN)... with areas further east seeing more of a damaging wind threat.

I suspect the downgrade (across the northern areas) was due to the uncertainty with tonight's instability... but if the NAM is correct, I'm sure the threat for SVR will be maintained.

If I were able to get out today, I would target Watseka, IL for the best TOR potential.

EDIT: SPC has re-added most of lower MI, again

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

on my way to champaign right now.. thats my target

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Here in Louisville debating on whether or not to head west and check this out....The area of extreme western Ky, northwest TN and Southern IL look to be a good spot for initiation. Cape and moisture look to be better here and there will be ample heating as the clouds appear to be almost non-existent on satellite as of this writing. IMO. I have a feeling once storms fire, they will move fast to the NE and go linear. I haven't made a forecast in a while so who knows. I am likely sitting this one out as I have to go to Boston and the fact that I do not have internet on my phone currently. I have a hard enought time with fast moving storms with live data!!!

Otherwise, Extreme Southern IL would be my target. Take care all.

 

[rdale]

My local WRF, 4km grid size initialized off the GFS, says nothing happens in northern IL/IN / southern MI through at least 06Z. http://66.70.209.226/weather/main.html

on my way to champaign right now.. thats my target

Thanks. I was curious.

 

[David Draun]

Wow, what a transition! From clear blue skies to screaming low-level grunge in a matter of seconds. I really hope this stuff breaks. I think it's just due to moisture return across the warm sector and it will mix out later. I'm displeased with the best dynamics moving east of me however. I still plan to head out after class to try to catch something.

 

[John Farley]

I am leaning toward an Effingham, IL target. Despite what SPC says about the possibility of initiation not occurring until dark, both the WRF and RUC do initiate storms in that area before dark. The clearing across much of IL now will hopefully help with that, and with storm initiation. Also, Effingham has good road connections in all directions, so if I need to shift from there, it should be easy.

 

[Terry Tyler]

MS

hell yeah...i just woke up and looked at the models, and i couldent believe what i saw...

pardon the excitement, but i havent been in an event like this in a very very long time...

well, just look at the skew-t out of memphis and you can see why...

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=_kmem

3000+ cape, 120kt+ winds aloft, and clearing skies...

every one is going into TN, IL, and IN, but i am staying in north, MS...

take a good look at the SPC mesoanalysis...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s6/index2.html

there is currently 200-350 ms/2s of 0-1 KM helicity draped out on the area and already a generous 1500 SBCAPE out there...

this is the same system that spawned over 15 tornadoes...and in my opinion about big tornado outbreaks that i noticed...if the first day sucks, the next one kind of sucks...but when its good, the next one is usually pretty good too...

there are alot of low-level clouds around that might get in the way of shooting, i hope some of them burn out during the day, but i am VERY exited...

 

[Robert Dewey]

15Z RUC now showing development over SW MI through SE IL at 21Z -- a lot sooner than I expected.

NAM forecast soundings up here in MI look good later this evening into tonight. I'm not buying the GFS and its "no precipitation before 06Z" prediction. NAM, SREF, NGM, and RUC all indicate action breaking out around 00Z, persisting well into the overnight hours.