10/18/07 FCST: WI/MI/IA/MO/IL/IN/OH/KY/TN

[Johnathan Brouwer]

Moving a bit west, thinking we might stage farther west. Danville, IL is the town. We are in Crawfordsville, IND right now will be moving in a couple of hours. On SpotterNetwork as KC9INJ is you need to contact. Have live video up on Yahoo, contact stormcam05 to access!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

15Z RUC now showing development over SW MI through SE IL at 21Z -- a lot sooner than I expected.

NAM forecast soundings up here in MI look good later this evening into tonight. I'm not buying the GFS and its "no precipitation before 06Z" prediction. NAM, SREF, NGM, and RUC all indicate action breaking out around 00Z, persisting well into the overnight hours.

I get the feeling that what you're seeing there is the model still just picking up on the nasty grunge that is out there right now. The more robust convection doesn't initiate til later in central and southern Indiana.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I get the feeling that what you're seeing there is the model still just picking up on the nasty grunge that is out there right now. The more robust convection doesn't initiate til later in central and southern Indiana.

The grunge is gone for the most part, with redevelopment starting at the 6 hour timestep... in other words, the RUC is showing new development, not just extrapolation of what is already there.

The latest 1630Z SPC outlook is in line with what the RUC is showing.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

The grunge is gone for the most part, with redevelopment starting at the 6 hour timestep... in other words, the RUC is showing new development, not just extrapolation of what is already there.

The latest 1630Z SPC outlook is in line with what the RUC is showing.

Yeah, I gotcha now. I just am not confident that things will fire that far NE that early, but we'll just see. The Peoria crew has gathered at my place now, and I think we're talking about heading south still towards Effingham, and Interstate 70. Looks like the best cape is going to be down in that area during the late afternoon, where surface winds also should start backing towards late afternoon.

 

[Kory Hartman]

I didn't have time to do a forecast (or even an ST post) yesterday... too busy busting. So...

Peeking at the latest data, I think eastern/southern Illinois and Indiana look great today... I like right where Johnathan is at.

Storms will be really hauling a** today, so put on the rocket boosters!

 

[David Draun]

Hmm, judging by the MD currently out for N IL and S WI, I may play a northern target this afternoon heading into WI rather than east to Joliet. It would be a more convenient option for me and I could avoid traffic, lol. But now a new MD says I should go SE, and this one looks like it could go PDS and include Chicago. Mesoanalysis shows siggy tors of over 3 in Indiana. Man, I sure would love to see more instability farther north. It's barely over 1000 here. At least the cumulus are starting to harden. They've been looking soft and sheared all day.

EDIT: Initiation south of Madison, WI, I'll wait and see if anything develops south.

 

[John Farley]

I'm now at the Flying J in Effingham - sat pic is showing a field of CU between here and STL, and NE from there into central IL and SW into SE MO. LSX forecast discussion pegs this as the likely area of initiation, so I will just wait here until things fire. Giving the storms a little time to intensify after initiation, this general area should be good.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Sitting at a local restaurant in downtown champaign. beautiful skies.. 81 degrees.. things coming together per latest msas.. wont be long.. anticpating watch soon.. will go east/south if need be.. good luck all

 

[Jesse Risley]

Looking at the northern sector, speed shear and CAPES look very good at 1500 J/KG++. The one caveat further north, in regards to directional shear, is the presence of those SW winds. I would look for a few hours of discrete supercellular activity to evolve sometime later this afternoon between I-55 and I-57, which should quickly transition into a screaming squall line and rapidly move ENE into Indiana. I'm thinking the attendant tornado threat before dark looks limited to the SE 1/3 of IL and WSW Indiana.

ADDED: Surface obs still showing the higher dews confined to the area south of I-70, which concerns me about a more limited potential to the north of that region.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

Ok, just had a new meso diss (#2111) issued for right where we are, which is Crawfordsville, Ind ... Will, as stated, be moving west int0 Ill. Shear is good here as cloud tops are rolling off of forward of movement. Wind direction has shifted slightly to the south showing a good backing. We also are noticing a opening up of the sky and a slow building of the cloud base. Max guests of 26-28 mph

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